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Friday, November 04, 2016

The problem for Hillary

It's pretty simple really. The remaining states are not quite guaranteed. More importantly, the last two I adjudicated to her, are trending away from her. What if they were to continue to? Certainly the last set of polls out of New Hampshire suggest the state has trended out of her way altogether.

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So here's the semi-good news: Hillary could lose every undecided state on that map and still win with Florida alone, which would get her 278 electoral votes. If she were to lose Florida but win North Carolina, she would need six electoral votes. Any of Colorado, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Georgia would do the trick. In an election this close, Hillary doesn't win Arizona or Georgia.

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So this, then, is the state of the race. If there's no surge and Hillary wins the states in which she has been ahead all throughout, and Trump wins the states that would on balance go to a Republican in a close race, we're left with this: four battleground states and one battleground electoral vote in Maine.

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Nevada experts give the state to Clinton based on a surge of Hispanics. Could be. And Colorado ought to go for Clinton given that she's been ahead there all throughout. If so, she gets 274 electoral votes without North Carolina and Florida. Steve Schale, the ultimate expert on data-driven Florida politics, is cautiously optimistic now. And Clinton had been ahead in North Carolina in most recent polling. That is why I am giving all four of the battlegrounds, and the election, to Clinton. But be aware that the trend has been away from her in most states this week. And any bizarre revelations over the weekend could matter. Do everything you can to convince your friends to vote. Tell them to tell their friends to vote. Yes, Hillary is an imperfect vehicle, the worst Democratic candidate (and the least progressive by instinct) since her husband in 1992. And there's a decent chance we will have impeachment proceedings right out of the gate. But the alternative is the end of every progressive tendency in America, and a Supreme Court with not a five but a six or seven vote majority against voting rights, civil rights, the rights of the poor, and a perpetual stream of black and foreign money in American politics, chipping away at national sovereignty. And that's without getting into the foreign policy and national security implications. Go to HillaryClinton.com, click on "act," and make some phone calls. Never forget what happened in Florida in 2000 and the consequences it had on this country and the world. Trump's election could be far worse.

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