Fair. Balanced. American.

Monday, November 07, 2016

Headed for victory... probably

Although Secretary Clinton received good news on Sunday, the election is not a done deal. Nate Silver is not wrong that Trump still has a path to victory. A slim one, no doubt--one that depends on a massive turnout by white working class voters (who haven't shown a uniform tendency to do that nationally in early voting) and no turn out by Clinton-leaning undecideds. Unlikely, but not impossible, given that Clinton is not at 50% in many battleground states. So this remains a conservative map, but one there is increasing confidence in:

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It is not a great situation for Clinton's election to be so wholly dependent on winning never-reliable Florida, Nevada and New Hampshire while being unsure of the situation in the Industrial Midwest. But we can't help it. That's where we are. It's better than being in Trump's shoes, but not at all where we were, say, in 2008. Or even 2012. We'll have four years for recriminations, and hopefully those won't be necessary. Possible surprises: NC, AZ, OH, MI. Most Senate forecasts have been on the conservative side, 50-50. Which is more than fair. I'm calling it 51-49, thinking that massive Hispanic turnout gives us Nevada but possibly not Florida. I'm thinking Feingold pulls out a victory in Wisconsin, but that assumes a strong enough Obama-coalition showing for Clinton. Bayh loses in Indiana. I'm thinking Obama's final push is enough for McGinty to pull through, and that perhaps last minute dynamics give Hassan the victory in New Hampshire, where polling has been all over the map. The big get: Kander in Missouri, only because the idea that our best new candidate wouldn't win is a bit heartbreaking. Finally, I'm guessing lower African turnout (caused by Obama not being on the ballot as well as voter suppression) gives Burr the victory in NC. All of these races are on a knife's edge, and the senate could just as easily go 51-49 the other way. And if we're insanely lucky, it could go 53-47 ours (I do think Bayh is toast even on a good night).

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
Oh, that other election. The House. Here's my prediction: we don't get it back until 2032.

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