Fair. Balanced. American.

Monday, February 08, 2010

PPP on 2012 opportunities

Because you never know. Obama still has two and a half years to salvage the mandate he blew.
The state where Obama was most popular in 2009 that he didn't win in 2008, perhaps surprisingly, is South Carolina. One might have expected it to be a state like Missouri, Montana, or Georgia where he just narrowly lost. His approval in SC was 56.1%. I actually thought it was a little curious Obama didn't go after the state more strongly because of a) its large black population, b) what an overwhelming margin it gave him in the primary and c) its whites aren't quite as predominantly conservative as they are in some other southern states. Maybe that'll change in 2012.

Next best for Obama among states where he lost are South Dakota at 55.8%, Georgia at 55.6%, Missouri at 55.5%, North Dakota at 55.3%, and Arizona at 54.7%. It'll be interesting to see what he can do in Az. in 2012 without John McCain on the opposing ticket.

Montana, the second closest state where Obama lost, may be moving away from him. His approval there came in at just 48.1%, mirroring the broader trend of Obama's lagging popularity in the Mountain West region.
A 2012 Obama victory in all but one of these states would attest to an Electoral College landslide. I wonder, however, whether Arizona's changing demographics (30% Hispanic with an extra electoral vote to boot) might make it worth contesting down the road. That said, the meltdown in Democratic Party support in Colorado does not make the Southwestern strategy look very promising right now.

2 comments :

omen said...

this made me wonder what the outlook will be with black voters if unemployment remains high.

a map plotting proposed high speed rail projects covers some of the states listed.

Sini said...

I agree, though not for that reason. My suspicion is that black voter enthusiasm will never be as high the second time around, simply because the first time was historic.

As for the map, it's astute, both for political passage as well as electoral map politics. I would, however, have added Vegas.

The truth, of course, is that the rail expansion should have been part of the stimulus. But that's a subject for another post.