NY-23: The peaceful transition of power

Where will Scozzafava's 20% go? Even though Barack Obama won the congressional district 52-48, the election was only considered competitive for Democrats because it was a three-way race.

Scozzafava made a point of not endorsing Hoffman. So will her voters stay home or does Republican-turned-Democrat Owens have the chops to capitalize on the moment?

This seat was held by a Republican to begin with. Victory in NY-23 is hardly crucial for the Democratic Party. The real question is whether Democrats can use this moment to effectively rebrand the GOP among the Washington elite and mainstream media.

Today is a milestone: Republican politicians have lost control over their party. The torch has been passed to Glenn Beck. It will be a long time before they get it back.

UPDATE: Nate Silver on this morning's Siena poll:

Scozzafava's supporters in this poll:

-- Have a favorable view of Barack Obama by a 64-31 margin.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Hoffman 15-57.
-- Have an unfavorable view of Democrat Bill Owens, 19-50.

It's not quite so clear how Hoffman stands to benefit from this.

Which would you prefer

A straight hypocrite or a gay one? Ah, the dilemmas of the Republican Party in South Carolina politics:

South Carolina Republicans say they don't have the time to deal with impeaching the state's Republican Governor. Many Republicans are worried that if they get rid of him they'll look even worse because the Lt. Governor, Andre Bauer, is a closeted gay man and that would make three of the state's highest ranking and most visible "family values" Republicans closet cases-- Bauer, senior Senator Lindsey Graham and state Senate President Pro Tempore Glenn McConnell. On the other hand, maybe they don't have enough time to deal with impeaching Sanford because they're all as sex-obsessed as their former colleague (now a South Carolina Assistant Attorney General) Roland Corning. Former legislator Corning was caught with an 18 year old girl in his car... in a dark downtown cemetery.

In fairness to the Southern Republicans, my question was rhetorical. Straight or gay, they look identical under a white hood.

Mrs. Lieberman and Mrs. Bayh

Raking in even more health care cash than their husbands. Not for future campaigns, but for their personal bank accounts... which also enrich their husbands. After all, why should senators' families survive on $174,000 plus benefits?

The sad thing about our democracy is that it only takes chump change to corrupt it. A hundred thousand a year given to maybe three or four key senators, plus maybe five million or so to a handful of campaigns, is enough to kill robust health reform even with 60 senators. The industry doesn't even have to bribe Republicans; the GOP's opposition, after all, is based on the belief that since Clinton's health care failure led to the 1994 electoral debacle, a repeat strategy should yield a similar drubbing.

Our national GDP is $13 trillion, and health care is 15% of that. That means $2 trillion of our economy goes to health care a year. Corrupting senators Baucus, Lieberman, Conrad, Nelson and Lincoln, along with a couple of Blue Dogs in the House costs less than a millionth of that amount but pays off to the tune of billions of dollars a year... all of which goes to insurance and pharma stockholders, many of whom aren't even American citizens. Somewhere in Saudi Arabia there's a sheikh laughing his ass off at us as he watches his UnitedHealth Group stock go through the roof. Happy Halloween!

Sly Stone

A nice introduction for those who don't know him. Yes, after reading it, you'll never look at pit bulls the same way again. But you'll sure want to listen to him.

The best line in Arnold's letter

It would have to be "kicks the can down the alley."

From Tocqueville's Democracy in America

Chapter 15:

Democratic republics extend the practice of currying favor with the many and introduce it into all classes at once; this is the most serious reproach that can be addressed to them. This is especially true in democratic states organized like the American republics, where the power of the majority is so absolute and irresistible that one must give up one's rights as a citizen and almost abjure one's qualities as a man if one intends to stray from the track which it prescribes. 

Excellent news

A reporter shield law is about to be adopted.

The Obama administration, leading Senate Democrats and a coalition of news organizations have reached tentative agreement on legislation providing greater protections against the fining or imprisonment of reporters who refuse to identify confidential sources.

But here's the best part:

Protection under the so-called shield law would also be extended to unpaid bloggers engaged in gathering and disseminating news.

That's important because outside of maybe three or four print news organizations, the mainstream media stopped doing investigative journalism years ago. Extending this protection to the dozens of bloggers (i can't imagine there are too many more) who do this kind of work gives our nation that many more chances to fight against the potential for the tyranny of the majority faction (or, as is happening now, the minority faction). James Madison would be proud.

Do not donate to the DCCC this cycle

The money will go to Blue Dogs, who are supporting their corporate masters, even though people in their districts, need the public option more than people in bluer areas. Until 2010, give your money to solid individual candidates or to organizations that will distribute cash to progressives in precarious districts who did the right thing.

Catholic bishops

Not content with spending hundreds of thousands of dollars of their parishioners' hardearned money on political ads against gay marriage, now they are planning to use this Sunday's Mass to publicly oppose health care reform.

Proof once again that the needs of Hispanic Catholics don't matter at all to the Republican, white hierarchy of the American Church.

Let's get rid of their tax exemption, now.

UPDATE: Reader M. points us to news that the Church is finally taking on the issue that really plagues humanity: the great evil that is Halloween.

Best quote: "The Bishop of Siguenza-Guadalajara, Jose Sanchez, said there was a risk that Halloween could 'replace Christian customs like devotion to saints and praying for the dead.'"

Halloween won't cause a diminution of devotion, but a Church this dumb certainly will.

James Murdoch

That would be Rupert's spawn. This is the funniest part of his interview with Der Spiegel:

SPIEGEL: You yourself once said, though, that you don't draw a distinction between bloggers and journalists. If that is the case, why should people be asked to pay for professional journalism?

Murdoch: It is not my place to distinguish between a card-carrying member of the Foreign Correspondents Club and someone who writes from home. Each customer decides what he or she would rather read. As an executive and investor, I attempt to obtain the best content and then to bundle it in a package -- and that costs money. However, I would feel very uncomfortable if the journalism profession were left to hobby writers -- that would mean it would be practiced only by the idle or the rich.

No, it's always better if journalists are only paid (for) by the very rich.

A thought

Let's just bring Pashtun men to a high density white supremacist/dominionist/Republican area, say in Alabama or South Carolina, They'll either 1) kill each other or 2) recognize how alike they are and secede. It will be a net gain either way, though we'd have to seal our borders; neither, group, after all, shares American values.

The story of the gigantic car bombing of the area between Meena and Kochi bazaars in Peshawar, which killed at least 105 persons, is especially heartbreaking. Muslim extremists in Darra Adam Khel appear to have planned and carried out the attack, done by remote-controlled car bomb. They had threatened the markets with retribution if they did not forbid women to shop there. Pakistani extremists often preach 'char divari' or the immuring of women-- keeping them within the four walls of their homes and forbidding them to go out at all. This idea, typical of Taliban sorts of thinking, is not Islamic and is contradicted by what we know of early Muslim history, in which women played an active and public role.

In any case, the extremists then bombed the area around these markets, since Kochi is a women's market. At least 70 of the victims were women and children.

"A safe haven for bigotry"

American Episcopalians aren't properly grateful for the Pope's grand gesture:

The Vatican’s announcement last week that it would ease the way for disaffected Anglicans to join the Catholic Church prompted strong negative reactions from some progressive Episcopal priests and parishioners, who saw Pope Benedict XVI as capitalizing on divisions in the Anglican Communion over the ordination of female priests and an openly gay bishop. The Episcopal Church is the US branch of the Anglican church.

During his sermon at St. Peter’s Episcopal Church in Salem yesterday, the Rev. Paul B. Bresnahan said the Catholic Church was essentially offering itself as a “safe refuge for bigotry,’’ and he “must respectfully decline’’ the pope’s invitation.

NARAL

About as dumb as the Human Rights Campaign.

Season 7 of Curb Your Enthusiasm

Cranky, lazily written, and starring an incredibly unfunny Jerry Seinfeld. The weakest season ever, which is particularly disappointing since it follows his best one. "Funkhouser's Crazy Sister" aside, there are only four episodes left to redeem it.

"This is about who we are as a people"

Surrounded by the two families, President Obama signs the Matthew Shepard & James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act.



The complete White House video is here.

Poor Bill Thompson

He's been sold out even by African American clergy. Or maybe better put, they sold out to Mayor Bloomberg.

Mr. Thompson was furious at the betrayal. But what he did not know was that Mr. Bloomberg gave a $1 million donation to the church’s development corporation — roughly 10 percent of its annual budget — with the implicit promise of more to come.

“What could I say to a man who was mayor, and was supportive of a lot of programs that are important to me?” Mr. Butts said in an interview before he endorsed Mr. Bloomberg. [...]

Some prominent ministers have been appointed by Mr. Bloomberg to influential city boards and committees. Others have enjoyed the administration’s help in buying city property or winning zoning concessions for pet projects. A few of the largest institutions, including Abyssinian and the Greater Allen A.M.E. Cathedral in Jamaica, Queens, have taken in millions of dollars in contracts to provide city services during Mr. Bloomberg’s eight years in office.

Looming over it all is Mr. Bloomberg’s dazzling wealth, whether already bestowed — as in the case of Mr. Butts — or hoped for down the line.

Say what you will about Bloomberg buying the race. But I remember that night in 2005 when he was re-elected. He won half the black vote, and 3 in 10 Latinos... running against a Puerto Rican. He won the gay vote, he won the Jewish vote. When you think about the way New York City was rent by the most vicious ethnic and gaybaiting politics under the Koch and Giuliani administrations, that alone is a triumph. In the year 2000, I don't think anyone could have ever imagined that kind of election night would ever occur in New York City.

While Mr. Giuliani seemed at times to relish antagonizing the ministers, Mr. Bloomberg has reached out in highly visible ways. After plainclothes police officers killed Sean Bell, an unarmed black man, Mr. Bloomberg immediately summoned the city’s top ministers to City Hall for a meeting and told them the shooting had been “inexplicable” and “unacceptable.”

More than 30 black ministers have publicly endorsed Mr. Bloomberg this year, their exuberant praise a sharp rejoinder to Mr. Thompson’s attack on the mayor as a plutocrat with little concern for the working class. Many more remain on the sidelines, where they can do the mayor little harm.

Bloomberg kept the city unified and gave everyone a voice. And on policy, even Wayne Barrett can't quite find a reason to throw him out.

He has returned rationality to New York City governance, and made the city the gorgeous mosaic that previous, well-intentioned mayors couldn't deliver on. It's easy to forget what New York was just nine years ago under the divisive politics of Rudy Giuliani, or thirty years ago under the divisive Ed Koch. It's easy to forget what it could return to in a New York City minute. We shouldn't. If bribery was the means to peace and good governance, I can live with it, at least for now.

JUSIPER endorses Independent Michael Bloomberg for a third term as Mayor of New York City.

So what are the odds

That the first letters in Arnold's letter could look like that purely by random chance? The answer is 1 in two billion.

No men or women needed to create life

Does that mean that the Catholic Church can now require everybody to be celibate?

"The first marriage"

A wonderful, long piece in next Sunday's Times magazine. Forty years from now, people will read about this time and shake their heads in amazement.

The model for American Christianists

Uganda.

They've lost the culture war in America, with any luck they'll move there. America, love it or leave it.

Only the crazies are left in the GOP, part XXI

Further proof: these results come from a CNN poll of Republicans, asking them for their choice in 2012:

1. Huckabee, best known for being a Baptist minister who lost 800 pounds and having a show on Fox News: 32%

2. Sarah Palin, Levi Johnston's not-mother-in-law: 25%

3. Mitt Romney: 21%

4. Tim Pawlenty: 10%

That's right: the two insane candidates are getting 57% of the total vote. The two serious albeit mendacious candidates have just 31%.

And that's what happens when the only people left in your party are the ones who have lost touch with reality. It's dangerous to everyone, not just Republicans. The 2012 election will end up being a referendum on Obama. Only about 15% of the electorate decides every general election. They are invariably the least informed voters. They put their fingers to the economic wind and vote their pocketbook.

And that's the danger: a fraction of the 20% of Americans who consider themselves Republican will pick the GOP nominee. After that, there will only be two names on the ballot. Pocketbook voters will choose Huckabee over Obama if things aren't going well for them, and it won't matter how crazy he is. That's how Reagan got elected in 1980, and most voters thought he was too crazy to be president. Then days before the election, the uninformed electorate moved to him en masse in a giant repudiation of Carter. The rest is history. And today's Republican electorate is smaller, dumber, more Southern and far more irrational than it was in 1980.

Seniors

Screwing the country. Yet again. That's the power of high turnout constituencies that vote on a single issue. Those checks better not come out till the end of next October.

Arnold's letter to Tom Ammiano

I think it's kind of funny, but much of the blogosphere is outraged.

The power of contested primaries

Arlen Specter. Arlen Specter is willing to use reconciliation if that's what it takes to pass healthcare. It's almost enough to make you forget about the Anita Hill hearings. But not quite.

Obama's foreign policy GPA

Juan Cole gives it A 3.3, particularly on the strength of the Administration's Iran initiative. And since we got a 0 last year, that's like night and day.

"Hear this, white boys!"

As any Mel Brooks fan knows, It's good to be the king. Why would you give that up to be a clerk?

Trinity College's Mark Silk sums up the Anglican blowback best:

No way, of course, are married hierarchs like Akinola going to lead their flocks to Rome, subordinating themselves to local Catholic primacy and either giving up their wives to stay bishops or keeping them and becoming mere priests. But that doesn't mean the Communion can't fall apart, or divide schismatically into North and South. Williams dithers as Canterbury burns.

The face of the Republican Party

Although they may make up a disproportionate share of next Tuesday's electorate, only 20% of Americans now openly identify as Republican. Many if not most of them live in the South. And many of them don't just idly want the President dead, they have given serious thought as to how they wish it would happen.

Key quote: "I know, I would like for that to happen too. I have thought about this and I am almost afraid to say it out loud but I hope if it does happen it is done by someone who isn't an American because then they won't be able to blame it on the conservatives."

The profile of the person who said this? The portrait of a modern Republican: a pharmaceutical representative (Astra Zeneca), who is tied to white supremacists, lives in Tennessee and belongs to a fundamentalist Christian faith.

NJ

Looks like a turnout election, according to PPP. They have Christie ahead, with Daggett hurting Corzine now rather than Christie. They also have Obama with just a 47-45 approval rating in a Democratic state at a time that his national approval rate is in the mid-50's, one of many signs that the electorate in 2009 will be heavily Republican.

But I find it hard to believe that Corzine will only get 70% of the black vote. If that can shift to the 90's, 20% of that 12% of the electorate is a solid two and a half points for Corzine. Push black turnout up with a final trip from the President, and this is still winnable. Ditto for the Hispanic vote, where Corzine is getting just 53% of that 9% of the electorate.

Bottom line: Corzine should have never left the Senate, but he can still win if Democrats turn out.

Ewwwww

Anyone who doesn't want to "meat" the balloon boy's daddy, please raise your hand.

The inspiration for American Psycho

Unveiled.

A defense of John Paul II

His favorite, Marcial Maciel, may actually have turned out to be perfectly acceptable in the Anglican Church, which now means that under Benedict XVI, he would once again be suitable for the priesthood, perhaps even heading up a religious order. For under the new standards, he he can once again be considered chaste.

Well, in his adult, heterosexual relations, anyway.

Cory Booker's price

$26,000. I hope the Clintons got him for less.

Saint Joe

He was picked to be the vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party because he was believed to have moral stature.

Here's videotaped evidence that Lieberman is a serial liar when it comes to health care for all Americans.

Lieberman

So... Reid didn't count his votes. This was all about looking good to Democratic voters in Nevada. A Lieberman filibuster kills any chance of a public option. This, however, should mean the end of his association with the Democratic Party and, hopefully, his tenure in the Senate.

Oh my God...

The teabaggers really are descending on NY-23. How lucky are we? And how great is that quote by Scozzafava's spokesman?

McHugh had been easily reelected in the district by wide margins, and Scozzafava's backers say a conservative like Hoffman does not fit the district.

"Her positions on a lot of issues are reflective of the electorate here," said Matt Burns, a Scozzafava spokesman. "If the idea is that every Republican that runs for office needs [to be] someone who fits in Georgia, then it's going to be very, very difficult for Republicans to gain a majority in the House of Representatives."

Many of Hoffman's supporters and donors are from outside the district.

Bernstone said she was expecting volunteers to come from far-flung parts of the state, and even from Connecticut, for weekend canvassing.

Donations started coming from all parts of the country as the race began to draw national attention. As of Oct. 14, the campaign reported it had raised about $307,888 -- more than Scozzafava, but less than Owens.

In the week after that, a surge of Internet donations doubled Hoffman's total, campaign spokesman Rob Ryan said.

Vasilakos, the Brooklyn accountant, was among Hoffman's long-distance donors.

"This race matters to me," she said. "But I can't go upstate with a sign."

Why is McDonnell's lead widening in VA?

Because Democrats are decreasingly likely to turn out. Sad, because McDonnell is crazier than George "Macaca" Allen.

Look, they got one too!

Via Down with Tyranny.

A thought on NY-23

Barack Obama got 52% of the vote there in 2008. New York has congressional districts that are far more Republican. There are even Democratic congressional districts (NY-13 and NY-24) where Obama did worse than in NY-23. This may not be quite the right place for the hard right to make its big stand.

Crazypants Hoffman will be on Glenn Beck tomorrow, so he'll only get more national attention. Let's hope teabaggers from around the country descend on the district in force the weekend before the election.

For those who can't make head or tail this post, here's an excellent primer from tomorrow's New York Times.

"Hollywood's biggest closet"

Scientology loses Paul Haggis over its support of the homophobic Proposition 8. I guess this means no Tom Cruise-John Travolta sex scene in Crash 2.

The secret diary

Of Sarah Palin's ghostwriter. More about Lynn Vincent here.

Heather Havrilesky

On why the Voltaggio brothers are great TV.

Next time you take a cruise

Just remember all the the rapes and murders onboard that have been covered up.

Today's extraordinary health care news

1. The health insurance companies will rue the day they pissed off Max Baucus.

2. Remember when the President-elect "betrayed" progressives by not calling on Democratic senators to dump Joe Lieberman? That move looks pretty good now.

3. We owe Senator Kennedy for his final gift to us: writing that letter to Deval Patrick that made possible a sixtieth vote for health care.

4. Obama doesn't want to antagonize Olympia Snowe. She was willing to play ball and may be a useful ally on other votes in the future. The Administration's alleged pushback against Reid this weekend may have been intended to be a bridge-builder, a way to publicly show its respect to her. Obama, in any case, doesn't really care what version of healthcare passes so long as he gets a bill on his desk.

5. Ed Schultz is right. If opt-out becomes a reality, 2010 gubernatorial candidates will wake up in a completely transformed electoral landscape. Republican candidates won't be able to win their primaries without standing steadfast for opting their states out. That will make the general election a vote for or against opting for health care choice. Democrats will be able to say, "I'm for giving you more choice. You've already paid for it with your federal income tax dollars; all we want is to be able to give you a choice that you'll be paying for even if we opt out." That's pretty powerful. And that matters to all of us: 2010 state results will determine congressional redistricting through 2022. This could be a silver bullet.

6. The GOP would like to get rid of both Social Security and Medicare. Suddenly it seems to be all about protecting Medicare, capitalizing on senior fears that this plan will somehow affect their health care. Fat chance. Seniors get whatever they want, including hundreds of billions of dollars for a prescription healthcare plan that was passed just a few years ago. Compare that, for example, to Clinton's failure to get $300 million for childhood immunizations through the Senate. The GOP's key electoral strategy for 2010 is angry white seniors. And they can do it, since the present bill doesn't take effect until 2014. Unless...

Democrats are pushing Senate leaders and the White House to speed up key benefits in the health reform bill to 2010, eager to give the party something to show taxpayers for their $900 billion investment in an election year.

Under the Democratic wish list, senior citizens would receive discounts on brand-name drugs next year. Small businesses that provide insurance would see tax credits. And a $5 billion high-risk pool would cover people with preexisting conditions....

“We want to have as much front-ended as possible,” [Sen. Debbie] Stabenow said.

The Senate HELP bill would immediately require family policies to cover young adults until age 26, while the Finance bill sets up a “young invincible” policy beginning in 2013.

That is very, very bad news for Republicans. If seniors wake up in October, 2010 and discover Obama's plan brought them a new benefit, their fear may go... And it's even possible some anger might set in. Without their newfound, terrified white senior vote, GOP 2010 prospects are beyond awful.

7. This blog tends to be a bit skeptical of the left-wing blogosphere of which it forms a part. But make no mistake about it, the public option's inclusion in this bill is likely the progressive movement's biggest victory in decades... other than electing the president who will sign it into law.

8. Democratic voter enthusiasm in 2010 and 2012 will shift in a big way if a strong healthcare bill becomes law.

9. It really pays to have a president who used to be a senator. If this bill passes, Obama's games of 11-dimensional chess will become the stuff of legend.

10. The bill hasn't passed yet.  Keep your powder dry.   UPDATE: I mean that. Keep your powder dry.

Pictures from a website

The President eating fried chicken, and John Kerry with a rifle pointed at his head. Only this wasn't any website. It was the Republican National Committee's.

The caption under the Obama photograph calls for an end to interracial marriage: "Miscegenation is a CRIME against American values. Repeal Loving v. Virginia."

With self-identified Republicans down to 20% of the country, the bulk of them living in the South, there is no reason to think these expressions aren't representative of the party

Shorter Jeb Bush

"Actually governing still counts. And yes, things were better before civil rights, but we can't live in our idyllic past. We have to win elections now that we're not the only ones who can vote." Via Brad DeLong.

Last Friday's Dollhouse

Possibly the best ever. And now it's gone until December. Watch it here.

Cake Boss marathon

In advance of tomorrow's season premiere. In the words of Extras' immortal Bunny, Yumma, yumma, yumma, yumma." And here's a clip for the uninitiated:



UPDATE: An opposing view.

If this is the kind of business they are running, I will NOT be going into this bakery. These people are sooo RUDE! I live in the south and that type of business would not last 1 month. It dont matter how good the food is. Word of mouth means more than a pot of gold around here. After 1 episode it turned my stomach. I change the channel when commercials come on. And believe me there are many many others that do the same thing. Come to the south, we can teach you manners.

Gay news from Ireland

This just made me want to hurl.

Oh to be a child again...

In particular, that one. The one right in front of the President. From this compendium.

Non sequitur of the day

This well-intentioned Kos diarist, who, try as he might, can't make the case that Soledad O'Brien's "Latino in America" flopped because of Lou Dobbs.

Charlie Cook

The Republican base is far more intense.

From my recent travels and conversations with friends and relatives, particularly those from the South, this description rings true. Obama's election and the Democratic gains in Congress have convinced conservatives that their view is not universally held. But that conviction just adds to the urgency they see in getting their message out and convincing others of the danger they see for our country. As the Democracy Corps report says, "They believe this position leaves them with a responsibility to spread the word, to educate those who do not share their insights, and to take back the country that they love."

Democrats and liberals can scoff and try to dismiss such views, but they should realize that adherents hold these attitudes so intensely that they will be determined to vote in 2010, and that in a midterm election in which turnout is inherently lower than in presidential years, the most-motivated voters carry a disproportionate advantage. The intensity that Democrats and liberals had in their opposition to Bush and Republicans in 2006 and 2008 has transferred to conservatives and Republicans.

Democrats would have to set up machine-gun nests to keep these people from voting, while the lethargy among Democratic voters is palpable.

If Obama succeeds in passing a strong, progressive health care reform bill, Democratic intensity might increase... quite a lot.

Creigh Deeds' Kerry problem

Public Policy Polling:

Given the grumbling about Creigh Deeds' conservative leaning stances on some issues among many Virginia Democrats, you might be surprised to know that 46% of voters in the state think he's a liberal to 48% who think he's a moderate.

Here's the problem though: conservatives think he's a liberal, but liberals don't. Whenever that's the case you have an identity problem with your candidacy.

Among Virginians who describe themselves as liberals only 16% put Deeds into that category- not much more than the 10% of them who think that's he a conservative.

Now this isn't that big of a problem for Deeds with the liberal voters who are actually planning to show up- he has a 95-4 lead with them. But it is an issue with how many are showing up. Exit polls last year showed them accounting for 21% of the Virginia electorate. They only make up 16% of likely voters this year. That's almost a 25% drop in their share of the electorate.

Now let's look at the conservatives. 73% of them think that Deeds is a liberal, and only 10% of them have a favorable opinion of him. By comparison only 49% of them Mark Warner is a liberal and 24% think he's doing a good job in the Senate. 24% isn't a ton of crossover support but it's enough to have been elected Governor and Senator in a pretty competitive state.

Deeds hasn't been able to convince independent and Republican voters that he's a centrist and that's kept him from getting the sort of support that Warner and to a lesser extent Tim Kaine have received from them. At the same time he hasn't made folks on the left side of the spectrum feel he identifies with them either. When all that's true victory is a struggle.

John Kerry had the opposite problem: he was a dyed in the wool liberal, but progressives never believed he was one of them, expicitly stated policy positions be damned. He deserved better. Creigh Deeds really doesn't.

Goodbye, Soupy Sales

Nikki Finke:

He was one of my earliest and most beloved TV memories. His zany antics were as addictive as his primitive hand puppets. But it was his dangerousness that made people tune in. That laughter could turn into a pie in the face, or even to rage, at a moment's notice. The mayhem even got him in trouble: when he asked kids to go through their parents' pockets and send him greenbacks, the FCC squawked and Metromedia suspended him. The stunt eventually killed Soupy's TV show. In interviews he said the media establishment never trusted him again. But as his fans grew up and into the emerging counter-culture, Soupy remained the epitome of cool for the rest of his life.

Hooray for snacks

Mayor Bloomberg's spending on the New York mayoral race is, indeed, obscene.

All that money shows how far Mr. Bloomberg has come, wealth-wise. His campaign spending this year will nearly equal what his boyhood hometown of Medford, Mass., population 55,000, devotes to its annual budget.

But credit him for spending 0.003% of the campaign budget on food. Well fed volunteers will work that much harder for you. There are some things billionaire businessmen can understand that young Republicans with 4 years of college and $60,000 a year joba don't understand: small investments in human capital can pay off big in productivity.

Hero of the Second Iranian Revolution

Mehdi Karroubi, a sign of hope for the world.

"Obama win turned male Republicans into girlie men"

I can't really improve on the title. Take a look.

"We issue a hearty welcome..."

"To interns and staff of all creeds, color, ethnicities and sexual orientation." The Congressional Tri-Caucus, which represents Asians, Hispanics and African Americans (who knew?), issues the smackdown to the Republican representatives who wanted to ban Muslim interns from Congress.

High Voltaggio

Top Chef: this season's high testosterone family feud has hearts aflutter.

Pelosi's healthcare plan

Deeee-licious. She's only a handful of votes away from the best plan we could have possibly hoped for short of Medicare for all. Elections have consequences. The huge, padded majority in the House has put a truly Democratic bill within the realm of possibility.

And the most popular politician in NY-23 is....

Barack Obama, with a 53-39. In this heavily Republican district, the next most popular politician (Cuomo was not a choice) is... Chuck Schumer, who at 49 is one percent more popular than abortion.

Scozzafava is at 38-35, Hoffman is at 27-19, and Owens is at 33-24.

Crazy Hoffman's voters would break for Republican Scozzafava 2-1 if their Palin-endorsed candidate weren't in the race. Hoffman is most popular among seniors and men. Scozzafava, among women, and Owens, among women and voters aged 18-29 and 30-44.

That should tell us something about turnout efforts. Hoffman needs a bunch of angry men, preferably older ones. Expect the tea party boys to shed their hoods and make nice at the senior homes over the next few weekends. And the boring Owens needs a rock concert or something. Maybe Taylor Swift can swing by for him? I imagine she might be popular in that district.

Catholic diocese gives $152,600 to anti-gay marriage campaign

Maybe it's time for its tax exemption to be revisited?

Some parishioners may have other questions:

Maine’s Catholic diocese is closing five more churches because of tight finances and changing demographics.

The Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland says Notre Dame de Lourdes church in Saco and St. Mary of the Assumption church in neighboring Biddeford will close at the end of the year. St. Andre church in Biddeford will close at the end of 2010.

In Lewiston, St. Joseph and St. Patrick Catholic churches will close sometime in October.

The diocese Portland diocese has money to campaign against gay marriage but not to keep churches open.

Truth be told, it's amazing the diocese has any money at all given the staggering amount of sexual abuse that occurred under its watch (going back at least sixty years, we found out this week).

GOP votes against funding our troops

There's only one thing that could make that happen.

Physical attacks on people based on their sexual orientation will join the list of federal hate crimes in a major expansion of the civil rights-era law Congress approved Thursday and sent to President Barack Obama.

The Microsoft store

Reader and intrepid Mac user G. alerted me to the Windows 7 house parties, whose "training video" was so bizarre and contrived that it went viral, creating a huge boomerang effect that made the already uncool Microsoft look downright Pat Boonesque. Witness:

Cindy Perman of CNBC writes, "You just knew that once they put the Microsoft geeks in charge of the "party," that it wouldn't be a 10-kegger and before long, we'd all be putting lampshades over our heads."

Ian Douglas, a tech blogger for the Daily Telegraph in London, writes, "I'm beginning to think that no one involved with Microsoft's advertising has ever left the house or spoken to a real person."

And James Lileks of The Bleat writes, "If Microsoft had been put in charge of marketing sex, the human race would have ended long ago, because no one would be caught dead doing something that uncool."

Broadband in the United States

Is rather middling compared to the rest of the industrialized world, according to a new study from Harvard's Berkman Center for Internet and Society. We aren't just behind in terms of price. We are behind in terms of broadband penetration, and usage too. And not just a little behind. We are in the third quintile. And when it comes to effective speed, South Korea, Japan and France have us beat by an order of magnitude.

Let's hope the FCC and Congress take this report seriously. The world's richest country should have an Internet policy. Ask any economist: unregulated free markets rarely work well when it comes to public utility provision.

Israeli ambassador Michael Oren

You're anti-Israel if you attend a conference of non-Likdnik American Jews.

Former foreign minister, leader of the Knesset opposition, and head of the Kadima party Tzipi Livni fires back:

Thank you for your invitation to J Street's first national conference. Unfortunately, my schedule does not allow me to take part in this event but, as you know, "Kadima" will be well represented at the conference by senior members of the Party.

I would like to congratulate you on your inaugural national conference. I believe most American Jews support Israel and want to see it thrive as a Jewish and democratic state. Like you, I believe ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by realizing the vision of two nation state living side by side in peace and security is in the best interests of Israel, the United States, the Palestinians and the region as a whole.

In my view, the discussion which the pro-Israel community of what best advances Israel's cause should be inclusive and broad enough to encompass a variety of views, provided it is conducted in a respectful and legitimate manner. Along the way, we may not agree on everything but I do believe that we must ensure that what unites us as Jews who are committed to Israel's future as a secure, Jewish, and democratic State is far greater than what separates us.

The founder of Kadima? One Ariel Sharon, a neocon hero until he decided war wasn't the solution to everything. If only more Republicans knew that Israel's democratic tradition is oftentimes far more inclusive than our own. Even when it comes to Israel.

And Likudniks are never as crazy as their neocon and evangelical pro-Israel supporters:

Israeli and Iranian representatives recently took part in a conference in Cairo on nuclear non-proliferation in the Middle East, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) said Thursday, but Tehran said the report on the meeting was untrue.

IAEC Spokeswoman Yael Doron, said, however that "no dialogue or interaction" between the Israeli and Iranian representatives took place at the meeting in Cairo in September. She gave no further details.

Iran however dismissed the report, with the spokesman for the Iranian Atomic Organization (IAO) telling the website of state television that "The reports in this regard are sheer lies and there has been no meeting in Cairo." [...]

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry confirmed, however, that the non-proliferation conference did indeed take place. Israel and Iran have refrained from all direct and indirect diplomatic contact since 1979.

Shocking, shocking. Even the Netanyahu government is anti-Israel. Are Republicans Israel's only friends in the world? Party leader Rush Limbaugh needs to take Bibi DOWN.

GOP opposes credit card reform

That should make for some good negative ads next year.

A key U.S. House panel, in a slap to the credit-card industry, on Thursday voted to move up by two months the effective date of strict new rules reining in the industry.

Under the legislation, the rules, enacted in May in what amounts to the most sweeping overhaul of credit-card regulations in decades, will now take effect on Dec. 1 rather than Feb. 1. [...]

Lawmakers have been angered by reports that credit-card firms have been raising fees and rates ahead of the new rules.

"The card companies brought this on themselves by using the time between when the bill was signed by President Obama and when it goes into effect to 'get in under the wire' with a last gasp of unfair practices," Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D., N.Y.), said in a statement. Ms. Maloney sponsored the legislation along with House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.)

The Pacific leads the way

California, as always, another world. 42% of Americans favor legalizing and taxing marijuana in their state (taxing it seems to increase support), but the support varies by region. And interestingly, it is the Midwest, marginally, and not the South, that is most opposed.

Gallup's favor/oppose breakdowns:

National: 42/56
West: 52/46
Midwest: 34/64
South 38/58
East: 44/55

That may not look great. But remember: just three years ago, the national numbers were 36/60. In 1996, when Bill Clinton was elected to a second term, they were 25/73, which is practically identical to the numbers in 1986 and 1980. Seniors, not surprisingly, are the most opposed to legalization. Agewise, then, these numbers are awfully similar to the ones for gay marriage. That means the writing is on the wall.

If conservatives knew how to add, they would be having visions of their grandchildren growing up, having gay sex at pot parties in an immoral America. Then again, they spend a lot of time having those visions even in their present, math-free state.

Windows users are from Mars...

The new iMac, with its 27.5 inch screen is out. Mac users', it would appear, are bigger. This is one reaction:

I may be a windows user, but man, that screen size is crazy... (for me it is, since I usually deal with 15-17 inch screens) I guess that's pretty impressive...

Low rent Steven Tyler

Adam Lambert's new single. The song is terribly padded; its coda, which sounds just like the end of an American Idol performance, comes about two minutes longer than it should. But it's a success: recorded for the 2012 movie soundtrack, "Time for Miracles" is already in iTunes' top ten.

Word from this Yahoo columnist/fangirl, however, is that the upcoming album is totally glam.  I suppose that means teenagers everywhere are about to find his contrived approximation of Aerosmith and Rush's Geddy Lee innovative and cool. Yikes.  Anyway, artistic vacuousness aside, it's real progress for the country to have a self-confident, out star who is successful on his own terms.

On the red side of the American Idol universe, Kris Allen's first single looks stillborn. Even more unfortunately, its title is "Live Like We're Dying." The jokes are writing themselves.

The sassy Contratulashayla writes, "It's Ruben/Clay all over again. In more than one way!" Yes, but, these two are much cooler.

Do you have a Bank of America credit card?

Time to cancel it. They are planning to charge you fees... but not for what you might think.

Theodore Casser has been a loyal Bank of America credit card customer for about 10 years. But the prospect that the bank might start charging him an annual fee because he pays off his balance monthly has the Baltimore software developer ready to sever that relationship.

"I take it almost as an insult," says Casser, who hasn't heard yet if he will be among the small percentage of unprofitable Bank of America customers to be charged a $29 to $99 fee starting next year. "I'm happy to take the hit to my credit rating to cancel the card."

"Will the congressman yield?"

In an extraordinary performance in a House committee, Alan Grayson says, "No."



Democrats are invariably effete elected legislators, terrified of the right, whom they secretly believed to be more representative of "real America." Even landslide wins in two straight electoral cycles won't convince them of their strength. They never realize that, oftentimes, the public is farther left than they are on many issues, and that all they need to do is push back, hard. Howard Dean got this, and following some of his 2003 appearances, a reporter noted he was "uncommonly virile" for a Democrat.

Well, Alan Grayson is pushing back hard. That means, Republicans, that Daddy's home. And look out 2016 presidential aspirants. If Grayson can parlay his new status into a higher position in the next eight years, he could be a contender.

David Gibson

Funny and right.

“Cafeteria Catholic” is about the worst epithet that conservative Catholics can hurl at liberals, with its implications of a pick-and-choose faith rather than a consistent fidelity to every jot and tittle of the catechism.

But after the news that the Vatican is effectively carving out a special church-within-a-church to shelter traditionalist Anglicans upset at gay priests and women bishops in their own church, one has to wonder if the cafeteria line isn’t forming to the right.

While both Pope John Paul II and his successor Benedict XVI have been known as staunch conservatives, they have in fact shown a remarkably liberal willingness to bend the rules when it comes to certain groups.

Andrew Sullivan

Now he gets this country. He was, just a few years ago, a pro-Bush gay conservative. Given his awakenings on the war, Christianism and now on race, there's no going back.

In terms of his personal political trajectory, this is likely the most consequential piece he has ever written. You don't get a lot of points, after all, for writing about gay rights if you're gay. We extend him a warm welcome to that world of rational political thought which is distinctly American. Today, finally, he belongs.

“I’d spend $3,000 to NOT spend time with him.”

The zombies in Michael Jackson's Thriller were showbiz. Joe Jackson, on the other hand, is far more grotesque than the undead.

"I'm Reverend Jesse Jackson"

Hee hee.

The blogopshere has its standardbearer

If the comments section to his post on Daily Kos is any indication, it's Alan Grayson.

Who's a worse politician than New Jersey's Chris Christie?

Markos says it's Creigh Deeds. His case is pretty effective.

Deeds, you will remember, is the Democratic candidate for governor of Virginia. The one who refused to be seen with the President of the United States... you know, the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964. Deeds isn't getting all of Obama's voters, but his wacko evangelical opponent is grabbing all the McCain voters, and then some.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama is on his way to New Jersey tonight, bringing the election home for incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, whose approval rating is in the 30's.

Democrats

Are about to force every single American to buy health insurance without any Republican support.

When the plan they get turns out to only cover 70% of their expenses, has a $5000 deductible and still costs $400 a month, whom do you think they're going to blame?

Hint: it's not the Republicans.

If this isn't a consumer friendly health insurance reform, one that encourages competition and keeps premiums low, Democrats will be in for it.

That's a very good political reason to kill the Baucus/insurance lobby plans. And I have a feeling that a lot of Democratic politicians are beginning to realize it.

Guess all that Wall Street cash

Wasn't enough to buy the President of the United States. But if I had to choose, I'd prefer a Geithnerless, Summersless administration to bonusless executives. The bonuses would be taken care of by a real economic team, regardless.

"What do you think our boys fought for at Omaha Beach?"

Now that's an American hero.



Text:

Good morning, Committee. My name is Phillip Spooner and I live at 5 Graham Street in Biddeford. I am 86 years old and a lifetime Republican and an active VFW chaplain. I still serve three hospitals and two nursing homes and I also serve Meals on Wheels for 28 years. My wife of 54 years, Jenny, died in 1997. Together we had four children, including the one gay son. All four of our boys were in the service. I was born on a potato farm north of Caribou and Perham, where I was raised to believe that all men are created equal and I've never forgotten that. I served in the U.S. Army, 1942-1945, in the First Army, as a medic and an ambulance driver. I worked with every outfit over there, including Patton's Third Army. I saw action in all five major battles in Europe, and including the Battle of the Bulge. My unit was awarded Presidential Citations for transporting more patients with fewer accidents than any other [inaudible] I was in the liberation of Paris. After the war I carried POW's back from Poland, Hungary, and Yugoslavia, and also hauled hundreds of injured Germans back to Germany.

I am here today because of a conversation I had last June when I was voting. A woman at my polling place asked me, "Do you believe in equal, equality for gay and lesbian people?" I was pretty surprised to be asked a question like that. It made no sense to me. Finally I asked her, "What do you think our boys fought for at Omaha Beach?" I haven't seen much, so much blood and guts, so much suffering, much sacrifice. For what? For freedom and equality. These are the values that give America a great nation, one worth dying for.

I give talks to eighth grade teachers about World War II, and I don't tell them about the horror. Maybe [inaudible] ovens of Buchenwald and Dachau. I've seen with my own eyes the consequences of caste systems and it make some people less than others, or second class. Never again. We must have equal rights for everyone. It's what this country was started for. It takes all kinds of people to make a world war. It does make no sense that some people who love each other can marry and others can't just because of who they are. This is what we fought for in World War II. That idea that we can be different and still be equal.

My wife and I did not raise four sons with the idea that three of them would have a certain set of rights, but our gay child would be left out. We raised them all to be hard-working, proud, and loyal Americans and they all did good. I think it's too bad [inaudible] want to get married, they should be able to. Everybody's supposed to be equal in equality in this country. Let gay people have the right to marry. Thank you.

Devastating

If every New Jersey voter comes to know this timeline, Chris Daggett will have a shot at the big job.

Search terms

This is primarily a political blog. Although there are some regular readers, a whole bunch get here through search. The search term that brought the most people here over the last week wasn't "Obama" or "public option" or "China" or "foreign policy." It wasn't even "Falcon Heene."

No. It was "spanking." And those visitors came from all over the world.

JUSIPER. Spanking new fair and balanced spanking news.

From the YouTube privacy notice

Shouldn't there be a law against this?

Usage Information. When you use YouTube, we may record information about your usage of the site, such as the channels, groups and favorites you subscribe to, which other users you communicate with, the videos you watch, the frequency and size of data transfers, and information you display about yourself as well as information you click on in YouTube (including UI elements, settings). If you are logged in, we may associate that information with your YouTube Account. In order to ensure the quality of our service to you, we may place a tag (also called a "web beacon") in HTML-based customer support emails or other communications with you in order to confirm delivery.

Right the first time

He might not be New York City's top cock anymore, but you can bet some will be coming his way.

Richard Heene

Anger problem!

Hot-tempered "balloon boy" dad Richard Heene once got so angry he trashed a Volkswagon while fighting with the car's owner, according to newly released court records.

And the Heene house is crumbling from within.

Child protective services are set to investigate the family, the sheriff said, adding that Mayumi Heene declined officials' suggestion on Saturday that she go to a safe house. The sheriff said officials talked to her "about domestic violence, about her safety, about her children's safety."

Lee Christian, Mayumi Heene's lawyer, told ABC News on Tuesday that Richard Heene alone should be charged in the hoax because of testimony that indicates Mayumi is meek and subservient to her husband.

South Carolina strikes again

As Malcolm X once said, the difference between racism in the South and racism in the North is that in the South, they say it to your face.

South Carolina Republicans found an unfortunate way to praise their U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint, extolling how, like wealthy Jews, the senator is "watching our nation's pennies." [...]

"By not using earmarks to fund projects for South Carolina and instead using actual bills, DeMint is watching our nation’s pennies and trying to preserve our country's wealth and our economy's viability to give all an opportunity to succeed," they added. [...]

A tearful Gov. Mark Sanford confessed earlier this year to having a torrid affair with an Argentinian woman he claimed was his soul mate. Despite his gushing, Sanford vowed to try and fall back in love with his wife Jenny, the mother of his four children.

"To be fair, he'll do anything legal to win"

Well, good for Harry Reid. Democrats need to fight as hard as Republicans. His $8.7 million in campaign cash will matter a lot in a state with as low a population as Nevada. But let's hope Senate Democrats vote him out as majority leader in 2011. Democrats simply cannot continue to be led by senators like Dashle and Reid, who continually have to balance their tenuous hold over red and purple electorates against the needs of the party and the country. Give it to someone from a solidly blue state, who can represent progressives without having to look over his or her back. Maybe Dick Durbin? Or, in a better world, Barbara Mikulski or Sherrod Brown?

Want to get motivated to earn big bucks?

Come to a special live business seminar, starring a president who bankrupted his country and a pastor who bankrupted his church. Ticket pricing is correspondingly low: not $19 per person but $19 per office.

VA governor race

Headed for a GOP blowout.

Don't expect an unexpectedly huge Democratic turnout for Deeds either. TPM reader dswx comments: "Listening to Creigh Deeds during the current debate, he just said he is against the public option for health care and would consider opting out Virginia. Ugh."

Seniors strike again, part XLVI

Their high turnout will probably kill gay marriage in Maine.

Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.

With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close.

One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters.

But here's something that will disturb progressives much more:

Interestingly white voters in the state oppose the referendum by a 49-47 margin, but nonwhite voters support it 55-35. That's a small swath of the electorate in Maine but it's enough to create an overall tie in these numbers.

African Americans are the most loyal Democratic demographic, but they are by far the most homophobic ethnic group. That is why referenda on gay marriage in states with high black populations will always fail.

Many states, however either don't permit referenda or have instituted roadblocks against popular voting on constitutional matters (which, incidentally, would not have gone well for African Americans in the 1960's, and in some states, today). Black voters, however, are usually represented by Democrats. Those representatives have frequently come up through civil rights organizations, and have thus formed alliances with progressive coalitions long before attaining power. That's why representative rather than popular democracy serves gay civil rights much better in states with large black populations.

More from Stormfront

A poster white nationalist website says that "a gorilla that escaped form a Columbia zoo was an ancestor of first lady Michelle Obama."

Minutes after the gorilla’s escape was reported Friday, Rusty DePass posted: "I’m sure it’s just one of Michelle’s ancestors — probably harmless."

I'm just kidding. That wasn't actually from the KKK website. That was from a Facebook page... of a former chairman of the South Carolina Election Commission.

That comment was made four months ago and sparked very little outrage. My evidence? That you, literate denizen of the Internets, probably didn't know it happened.

What's left of the Republican Party looks a lot like Stormfront, with a side of militia groups, Christianists, and the horribly undereducated. That's the primary electorate that Republican senators and congressmen will be facing next spring if they don't toe the crazyline.

With the white vote in many southern states trending 70-90% Republican, it's small wonder that the Secret Service won't let the First Lady visit South Carolina.

An old cartoon

But it's a good one.

Hey Mom, guess who came to school today?

The President!

They created a soundscape that has lasted a quarter century

But most people have no idea who they are. JUSIPER salutes Bernard Edwards and Nile Rodgers. Here's a discography.

A great George H.W. Bush anecdote

He was the Rolodex president, a resumé-builder who stumbled on the top job. For people who know something about Bush 41, this anecdote in Timothy Garton Ash's review article on 1989 in the New York Review of Books is very, very funny.

Important though it is, the Soviet–East European interaction is only part of a wider international setting. During the first half of 1989, the new US administration of George H.W. Bush was extremely reticent in its response both to Gorbachev and to the changes being pushed forward by a combination of reform communists and dissidents in Poland and Hungary. What we have learned from the Soviet and East European archives confirms that Washington's assessment was, in fact, far too skeptical. (In one of several excellent scholarly essays in the volume edited by Jeffrey Engel, Melvyn P. Leffler notes how then Defense Secretary Dick Cheney suggested that Gorbachev's policies "may be a temporary aberration in the behavior of our foremost adversary.") Nor did Bush set much store by bearded dissidents who looked like something out of Berkeley in the 1960s. Victor Sebestyen, in a book full of sharp snapshots and crisp narrative, has a well-sourced account of the President meeting with the leading Hungarian dissident János Kis in Budapest in July 1989, and subsequently telling aides, "These really aren't the right guys to be running the place." Much better to stick with a preppy reform communist.

Ash closes with two weighty thoughts:

To put it another way, the fact that Tiananmen happened in China is one of the reasons it did not happen in Europe.[10] However, an influence then flowed back in the other direction: from the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe to China. As David Shambaugh and others have documented, the Chinese Communist Party systematically studied the lessons of the collapse of communism in Europe, to make sure it did not happen to them.[11] Today's China is a result of that learning process. [...]

Twenty years later, I am tempted to speculate (while continuing to work with other Europeans in an endeavor to prove this hunch wrong) that this [the events of 1989] may also have been the last occasion—at least for a very long time—when world history was made in Europe. Today, world history is being made elsewhere. There is now a Café Weltgeist at the Humboldt University, but the Weltgeist itself has moved on. Of Europe's long, starring role on the world stage, future generations may yet say: nothing became her like the leaving of it.

From the Clinton Diaries

Interesting:

In his last sessions, Bill Clinton wished that Al Gore had waged a less decorous campaign in 2000, and not run away from Clinton's record. His view here is self-serving but also canny. Had he been allowed to campaign for Gore, he might indeed have helped him to win New Hampshire, Tennessee, and Arkansas. He also shared the common judgment that Gore was wrong to let his people concentrate on a few disputed jurisdictions in Florida; a recount of the legal votes in the entire state would have carried a surer mark of conviction. Speaking on November 27, 2000, Clinton asserted his view that

"the US Supreme Court would do anything it could to help Bush. He wasn't sure how the justices could get a legal foothold, but he said they were political enough to engineer a conservative president in order to perpetuate justices like themselves.... In summary, President Clinton said all the major institutional forces were lined up behind Bush, except for the Florida Supreme Court. He specifically included the media. Therefore, it would be very difficult for Gore to win."

This prediction Branch calls "prophetic." It was certainly correct in its estimate of the alignment of forces and in its inference of the result.

Geert Wilders allowed back into Britain

The head of the right wing Dutch Freedom Party screened his new film

Wilders traveled to London to discuss a possible showing of his film "Fitna" in parliament. The politician sought to visit the UK for a screening of his 15-minute film, "Fitna," a film which seeks to prove that the Koran incites Muslims to violence.

Why wasn't he allowed in Britain in the first place? Answer: "because some in the British government were concerned that his presence could trigger violence."

Banner at the protest against him: ""Shariah for the Netherlands."

Wilders and his politics actually are relatively insane (he's no Pim Fortuyn), but European Muslims have shown a remarkable ability to make the extremist's points for him. And there is a fairly good chance he will be the Netherlands' next prime minister.

Never bet against black homophobia

Remember Cleveland's crossdressing mayor? He lost his primary 2-1. He'll be jobless soon. He could ask his disenfranchising buddy Ken Blackwell for a job, but I suspect only closeted transvestites are welcome at the Family Research Council.

Christian cheerleaders

Showing some skin and spreading the Word.

Spanking

I'm all for less of the bad kind, but one can think of any number of methodological or logical flaws with these studies, at least as they are reported.

Falcon Heene, Part II

If only he'd lived in the Bush White House. We might have had any number of emperor has no clothes moments. "Uncle Karl said the Iraq war was for Florida and Ohio!" Or "Aunt Condy likes girls!" Or "Grandma Barbara says the Astrodome is a step up for Katrina survivors"

Oh wait, she said that with the mic on. No need for Falcon there!

Party affiliation in the South

It's a proxy for just one thing. Witness Louisiana's most famous justice of the peace. He was first elected in 1975 as a Democrat. The first Republican president freed the slaves, and the entire region voted Democratic until the 1980's (though not for President after LBJ, with an exception made once for Carter). But today only one party is right for a man who doesn't believe in race mixing. It took him a while, but he switched his affiliation to Republican before the last election. Bardwell has, indeed, come home.

Stormfront on Cambridge racism

What's remarkable about rank and file white nationalists' reactions to the Skip Gates arrest is, once again, their similarity to those of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Fox News. They are not much farther out of touch with reality than the rest of the Republican base.

And this goes in our lengthening "a little education is a very bad thing" file: there are white nationalists in college. Their complaints are pretty similar to those of young Republicans at any campus today.

Christie: $400 hotel rooms

And he went over the federal travel stipend limits 77% of the time. But why did the New Jersey GOP candidate keep traveling with one Michele Brown? Here's one possible answer.

Artistic death strikes an entire civilization

Las 100 canciones emblemáticas de los 90' en Español. A handful of corporations (most based in the US or Japan) hold Latin American popular music in a viselike death grip. It's hard to know for certain if things would be better in the labels' absence. But given these results, one can only repeat the words of Rupert Giles when faced with an alternate reality: "I have to believe in a better world."

Levi's secret centerfold prep revealed

Moose meat.

Bono

He's one smart politician. By defending the President's Nobel, he calls him on his promise to support the Millenium Development Goals. As a superstar, he understands branding and image better than most politicians. That's why he recognizes and sums up the moment of opportunity so well: "Rebrand, restart, reboot." A sharp piece in more than one way.

Saturday Night Live

The political sketch, as usual, was stupid (minor props, however, for calling Olympia Snowe on her strategy). But the Beauty and the Beast sketch was hilarious, and the gay 300 sketch was surprisingly sharp albeit obvious. Video links when they're up.

A thought

Barack Obama got a higher share of the white vote than Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, or John F. Kennedy. The only Democratic candidate who's done better since 1960 was LBJ.

"The rise of the rest"

This was written a year ago, but its analysis of the world economy, and America's place in it, holds just as true today.

A wartime President

Finally. I'm sure he must be thinking that if he'd known this would be the endgame back in March, he'd have gone this route from the beginning. His ratings might still have been in the 60's.

President Obama mounted a frontal assault on the insurance industry on Saturday, accusing it of using “deceptive and dishonest ads” to derail his health care legislation and threatening to strip the industry of its longstanding exemption from federal antitrust laws.

In unusually harsh terms, Mr. Obama cast insurance companies as obstacles to change interested only in preserving their own “profits and bonuses” and willing to “bend the truth or break it” to stop his drive to remake the nation’s health care system. The president used his weekly radio and Internet address to challenge industry assertions that legislation will drive up premiums.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” Mr. Obama said. “It’s bogus. And it’s all too familiar. Every time we get close to passing reform, the insurance companies produce these phony studies as a prescription and say, ‘Take one of these, and call us in a decade.’ Well, not this time.”

Rather than trying to curb costs and help patients, he said, the industry is busy “figuring out how to avoid covering people.”

“And they’re earning these profits and bonuses while enjoying a privileged exemption from our antitrust laws,” he said, “a matter that Congress is rightfully reviewing.”

Video here.

The sixth most influential man of 2009

According to AskMen.com is dead. And over 70% of online viewers thought his rank should have been higher. That's fair, given that Simon Cowell and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and a fictional character are higher.

What is the Republican base?

The Democracy Corps' focus groups have resulted in a very detailed portrait.

One of the more surprising findings: Republican women are the key drivers of the Glenn Beck phenomenon, despite the shocking allegations against him.

One of the less shocking findings: they really have lost all touch with reality.

The most interesting finding: strongly conservative independents are still sane; where rationality goes out the window is among self-identifying Republicans. The problem: two out of three base Republicans have lost touch with reality. That means Republicans who are actually interested in governance can't win primaries anymore.

The most consequential political reform we could make, therefore, might be to force open primaries for federal offices in every state. If independents and Democrats can vote in GOP primaries everywhere, moderate Republicans might have a chance of getting the nomination. That may hurt the Democratic Party in the long run, but it would make for a healthier polity.

John Mayer

Knows how to handle reporters.

“He picked religion over me.”

A Franciscan Father... who was also a father. But this story is really about the Church and the sorry way it dealt with the consequences.

Does the C.I.A. know something about the JFK assassination?

Who knows? But it's now plain that they are covering something up, whether it is relevant or not.

Piyush "Bobby" Jindal betrays the GOP

What? When you think that David Duke won 55% of the white vote for governor in a general election just a few years ago in Louisiana, you have to think the governor has overstepped his bounds. He may need to do another exorcism if he wants to remain viable.

In an interview with CNN, Humphrey said she called Bardwell on October 6 to ask about getting a marriage license, and was asked by Bardwell's wife whether it would be an interracial marriage. Humphrey said she was told that Bardwell will not sign off on interracial marriages.

There have been calls for Judge Keith Bardwell to resign but so far, he has shown no inclination to do so. The local NAACP chapter has forwarded the case to the state and national levels of the civil rights group. [...]

Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal issued a statement saying the nine-member Louisiana Judiciary Commission that reviews lawyers and judges in the state should investigate. Jindal added, "Disciplinary action should be taken immediately, including the revoking of his license."

Whoring Christianist David "Diapers" Vitter knows better than to betray the Republican base so close to a primary.

U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said in a statement Bardwell's practices and comments were deeply disturbing. "Not only does his decision directly contradict Supreme Court rulings, it is an example of the ugly bigotry that divided our country for too long."

The other Louisiana U.S. Senator David Vitter, R-La. who is running for re-election has chosen not to issue a statement."

Jindal will need to clarify his position if he wants to remain viable in the Southern party. I'll venture a suggestion for his next speech: "My friends, in America, white people ought to be able to marry whomever they want to."

Snow Leopard versus Windows 7

The speed test verdict is in.

Excedrin RT

Starring Queen Latifah. Via Ta-Nehisi Coates. One thing though: "articulate" was never the first word that came to my mind when I heard Condoleezza Rice.

"A child is waiting, and he wants his money back"

A nasty pan of Spike Jonze' new film.

An Indian Nobel Prize winner

With a universal mind.

"We are witnessing the steady degradation of a nuclear state"

Indian analysts on the Pakistani violence.

Details on the Thursday attack:

Thursday's carnage began in Lahore at 9.15 am, when Taliban terrorists in police uniform stormed the Lahore branch of the Federal Investigation Agency, which deals with immigration and terrorism-related offences. Minutes later, gunmen attacked Manawan police training centre and the elite police training institute at Bedian on the city outskirts, killing at least six people.

More shocking than the attack: Pakistan has immigration problems. Who's trying to get in?!

Two maps

Map #1

Map #2.

The three exceptions (Florida, Virginia and North Carolina) are exceptions with a backstory.

Jersey

The New York Times has Corzine ahead by three... and by 10 among likely voters. With Daggett at 14, and apparently drawing from both major party candidates equally, it's anyone's game.

Corzine's favorability: 30. Christie's: 19. Obama's: 61.

The Internationale

Almost every American labor union joined the Puerto Rican work stoppage today: support came from AFSCME, SEIU, and the LCLAA. AFSCME President Gerald McEntee made an appearance at the San Juan really, in person.

And the protest is front and center on the AFL-CIO's homepage.

Black president in the White House... with Mexicans

A Republican nightmare. Via reader M. One wonders what he was telling Michelle, and what that smile of hers means. Brazil's Veja says she gave him "the freeze," and that he had to mollify her. I think Michelle was smirking at his dance moves. They are so gloriously dorky; if we could only get those teabaggers to watch them, they might remember for once that he's half white.

If you haven't chosen a religion yet

This video might help you.

China, the US, Africa, and a window of opportunity Part II

(Part I is here.)

One huge advantage the U.S. could have over China is in what Joseph Nye has called soft power. More specifically, in the subset he calls cultural power. During the Bush years, that power turned into a negative. And indeed, many parts of the world were beginning to search for any new world power that could act as a counterforce against the United States. If that power were China, many countries (other than Russia, India and Japan) would have been OK with that.

But the US didn't turn 20 degrees. Obama represents a full-fledged 180. He won't be our president forever, but as long as the Secret Service does its job against the Republican Party's gun-toting fringe, we'll have him through 2012, maybe even 2016. That's an opportunity to rebrand in a big way.

China can help us by continuing a foreign economic policy that is exceedingly recognizable throughout developing countries. Their old European masters had only two interests in them: the strategic or military uses of their lands, and the cheap labor they could use to extract the natives' natural resources. Increasingly, throughout Africa and even parts of Latin America including future power Brazil, the Chinese are repeating the old pattern. It is unattractive, to say the least.

That's why the New York Times piece on Guinea is so interesting:

The president’s name, freshly painted, appears above a barbershop, a grocery, a school, even tire stores here, as well as the cabaret in Boulbinet. In a leading bookstore downtown, a full-scale poster of Obama looks out from behind a closed door, a visual echo of the sentiments of those who go in to discuss politics.

The implications of this new American authority in an unfamiliar spot received a tryout last week, when the Obama administration sent a senior diplomat here to condemn the massacre of dozens of unarmed civilians protesting Guinea’s military government in September. They seem clear: America punches above its weight, in a part of the world that it has hitherto left to the French. The United States, with few practical sticks to beat the junta, nonetheless has a moral authority in the streets that the big-dog French do not match.

But there is another competitor for influence here, the Chinese, who are seen as supporting the junta, particularly after the junta said it had recently reached an agreement with a Chinese company that could provide it with up to $7 billion in infrastructure. The quid pro quo was not specified, but China is known to be interested in the country’s bauxite and other minerals.
China has not yet confirmed the deal, but analysts said it was a potential boost to the junta and a setback to China’s push to be seen as a responsible competitor for natural resources.

“What happened in Guinea was extreme in terms of its violence and cruelty,” said Princeton N. Lyman, a former American diplomat in Africa who is now at the Council on Foreign Relations, so China could become “something of a target in a way they haven’t been for some time.” [...]

“We don’t accept it anymore,” said Sow Baïlo, a Guinean actor and intellectual with a wide following. “That’s why we went to the stadium.”

In that context, the tough American stance against the government, as enunciated by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, carried a special weight.

“After the declaration of Hillary Clinton, the people regained confidence in themselves,” said Mamadi Kaba, president of the Guinean branch of the African Assembly for Human Rights. “It was a very powerful symbol. People understood that they had not been abandoned.”

There were indications that the junta itself understood the potency of the American position. [...]

Similarly, when Mrs. Clinton said the next day that she was “appalled” by the “vile violation of the rights of the people” in Guinea, Captain Camara had nothing to say, publicly at least. But when Mr. Kouchner called for an international intervention force, the captain angrily said, “Guinea is not a subprefecture, is not a neighborhood in France.”

The differing reactions were not lost on local observers. Mamadou Mouctar Diallo, an opposition leader, said Captain Camara “dared to defy France, but he didn’t dare defy the U.S.”

“America is a power that counts,” Mr. Diallo said. “You can’t turn your back on them.”

Yes, we are a power that counts. Especially when we do the right thing. And we become even more powerful if we can turn China into the country the resource-rich developing world despises the most. And make no mistake about it, Al Qaeda is just a blip. The biggest long term threat to the United States is a muscular Chinese economic and military empire. And empires become much stronger when they have friends.

Conservatives and even most conservative elites in our country are neither well traveled nor culturally educated. So it's hard for them to comprehend the existence of power that doesn't come out of the barrel of a gun, much less its uses. Obama-Clinton are a soft power double whammy. The longer they have a chance to be the face of an idealistic United States that isn't trying to use the developing world (even though in the end, of course, we are: our goal is to decrease China's relative power), the more we have a chance at fighting our way through a 21st century where we will be at best, only the second most powerful nation in the world.

Puerto Rico brought to a standstill

During today's general strike. This is too big a story with a lot to unpack, but the most dramatic moment of the day would have to be when University of Puerto Rico students blocked the island's most important freeway for three hours. Neither police nor labor leaders could get them to move. A bloodbath looked imminent... until Rafael Cancel Miranda gave them a brief speech. Within moments, the awed students, shouting, "Gracias Rafa, disbanded.

Who is Rafael Cancel Miranda?

The United States Capitol shooting incident of 1954 was an attack on March 1, 1954 by four Puerto Rican nationalists who shot 30 rounds using automatic pistols from the Ladies' Gallery (a balcony for visitors) of the House of Representatives chamber in the United States Capitol.

The attackers, Lolita Lebrón, Rafael Cancel Miranda, Andres Figueroa Cordero, and Irving Flores Rodríguez, unfurled a Puerto Rican flag and began shooting at the 240 Representatives of the 83rd Congress who were on the floor during debate over an immigration bill.

Five representatives were wounded in the attack, one[specify] seriously. The wounded lawmakers were Alvin M. Bentley (R-Michigan), who took a bullet to the chest, Clifford Davis (D-Tennessee), who was shot in the leg, Ben F. Jensen (R-Iowa), who was shot in the back, as well as George Hyde Fallon (D-Maryland) and Kenneth A. Roberts (D-Alabama). House pages helped carry Alvin Bentley off the House floor.

Puerto Rico's pro-statehood governor and non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives are very lucky that no GOP congressional staffmembers have language training.