Lieberman has no incentive to remain in the Democratic Party; if Richard Blumenthal runs for the Democratic nomination in 2012, it will be his for the taking. Lieberman will be hard pressed to get as many Democrats as he did in 2006. So he depends on Connecticut's independent and Republican voters to have a shot at retaining his seat in 2012. Note these numbers from a recent Quinnipiac poll:
By a 51 - 25 percent margin, Connecticut voters say Sen. Joseph Lieberman's views on issues are closer to the Republican Party than to the Democratic Party. There is agreement on this among voters in all parties.In short, Lieberman is free to do whatever he wants on health care and just about anything else. Worse still, as long as Democrats feel there is a even some probability Lieberman might vote against a filibuster on any other matter, they can't really throw him out of the party.
Voters approve 49 - 44 percent of the job Lieberman is doing. He gets 74 - 20 percent approval from Republicans and 52 - 40 percent approval from independent voters, but Democrats disapprove 62 - 31 percent.
As things stand now, Democrats will lose their "filibuster-proof" majority next November. Once that happens, and assuming there are still have 55 or so Democratic Senators, throwing Lieberman out of the party might seem like a better idea. And Lieberman without his chairmanship will seem a lot less appetizing to Connecticut's independent voters. So payback will be at least a year (or three) in coming. To avoid it, Lieberman would have to buy his continued stay in the Democratic Party with some bold and necessary votes in the lame duck session.
At this point, the best shot at a good health care bill looks like the nuclear option, by which I mean less reconciliation but lowering the number of votes for cloture to, say, 56 from 60. The public option is dead regardless, but at least there would be a shot at a very strong bill. "Having said that," it might be difficult to get to 57. Lowering the magic number would be a political earthquake that would send 2010 contenders Landrieu and Lincoln to the exits. Bayh and Nelson, meanwhile, are hardly sure vote for reform. So even this solution would be hard to pull off.
UPDATE: Jonathan Chait's bizarre semi-defense of Lieberman: "Joe's kind of dumb. He knows not what he does."
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5 comments:
Who's Nate Silverman? Fred's brother?
Yes!
If Joe wants to act like a Republican, it's time Democrats started treating him that way.
from e.j. dionne
The Medicare buy-in compromise was not announced until it had been cleared with Lieberman. I was in close touch with the negotiations at the time, and everyone involved thought Lieberman was on board.
he's like a cat toying with mice. i dont know how his colleagues are able to restrain themselves from not punching him in the face.
I think Al Franken just did. But the truth is, that 60th vote matters. It's not going to come from Snowe.
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