JUSIPER
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
59%
Jack and Jill Politics on Hillary Clinton and electability. And, to more devastating effect, on Wright, Clinton, and McCain.
7:02 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The Clintons know how to run in the South
And if they had anything to do with this, they are no longer worthy of being elected dogcatcher, what to speak of federal office.
As reported yesterday in the Raleigh News & Observer, African-American households are receiving anonymous robo-calls with misleading information about voting. Facing South has now learned that those calls are very similar to tactics recently used in Virginia and Ohio, suggesting they may be linked to a national voter deception strategy.
In one North Carolina call, the caller falsely states that voters must send in a "voter registration packet" before voting. The State Board of Elections released a transcript of the call (you can also listen to it at the Democracy North Carolina website):
"Hello, this is Lamont Williams. In the next few days, you will receive a voter registration packet in the mail. All you need to do is sign it, date it and return your application. Then you will be able to vote and make your voice heard. Please return the voter registration form when it arrives. Thank you."
Facing South has learned that voters in Virginia received calls with the same message before that state's Feb. 12 primaries -- although, the Virginia State Board of Elections stated they thought it was an attempt at identity theft, not voter disenfranchisement.
acing South has also learned that, last year, voters in Ohio also received calls with false voter information, using the exact same name of the supposed caller in North Carolina. In November 2007, a voter in Columbus, Ohio wrote in to the Buckeye State Blog with this eerily familiar story:
I just got a weird robo-call that I suspect may be a form of voter suppression, albeit kinda braindead. From memory, a stentorian voice reminiscent of James Earl Jones says: "Hello. This is Lamont Williams. In a few days you should be getting a voter registration form in the mail. Please fill it out and return promptly and you will be able to vote. Thank you."
In related news, Hillary Clinton will be on O'Reilly tonight, hoping that large numbers of Republican troublemakers will tip the election to her in Indiana. It worked in Texas and Ohio (remember Bill Clinton appeared on Rush Limbaugh on primary day), so why not?
11:20 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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A warning to Obama
It comes from a Hillary supporter on the once mighty MYDD, but it's worth thinking about:
I was watching a Barack Obama townhall in North Carolina on CNN.com earlier and the guy I saw on that stage was not the same old confident Barack Obama that I'm used to seeing on the campaign trail. My gut is that Pennsylvania has shaken him. He is sounding to me as though he thinks he has to be everyone's friend, like he has bought into the hype that he needs to be more down home, more accessible, less the caricature of the "out of touch elitist" his opponents would like us to think he is. His manner is more casual but in a sort of forced way and so to me he comes off as less genuine, which is about the worst thing a politician can appear to be.
9:22 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Sunday, April 27, 2008
Live coverage of Acevedo Vilá rally in Puerto Rico
On WAPA-TV.
UPDATE: One hell of a speech. Acevedo Vilá has gone from campaigning as a sober, clean candidate in 2000 to a raging populist, a defender of female heads of households, the mentally ill and the poor, practically screaming out his campaign speech. His nomination seconded and secured by cheering PDP delegates, he will be the only story in Puerto Rican politics... until November, anyway. The PNP is practically delirious with joy; every politician in its ranks from Fortuño on down now expects to win not only the governorship but every downticket race, including a near-sweep of mayorships.
Acevedo Vilá commissioned a huge poll prior to making his decision; and perhaps he knows something that the conventional wisdom doesn't. And indeed, there is no reason to think that PDP partisans will vote for the PNP in the general election. Nor is there any reason to expect more than 2-3% of the PDP electorate to stay home. But since many Puerto Rican elections are decided by less than that, including Acevedo Vilá's in 2000, that's hardly something to cheer about.
Finally, what of Puerto Rico's mysterious independent voters? There is no question that they exist. Acevedo Vilá won in 2000 because a third to a half of PIP voters and many genuinely independent voters backed him in a last bid effort to stop Rosselló. Acevedo Vilá should remember that Fortuño is hardly the bogeyman Rosselló was to the PIP, which suggests that the PIP may improve on its execrable 2004 performance by 50%. Every additional vote given to Irizarry Mora is disastrous to Acevedo Vilá. And because Fortuño is a fresh new face not under indictment, independent voters should swarm in his direction.
Acevedo Vilá's only route to victory, it would appear, is to:
1) hope hard-core Rossellistas' write-in campaign sinks Fortuño's candidacy. There's a reason Fortuño, once a moderate on gay rights, is embracing homophobic amendments to the constitution: he needs to re-unite Rosselló's PNP's 2004 coalition, which in many ways paralleled Bush-Cheney's the same year. Drawback: how many such fanatics will there be in November?
2) increase turnout among PDP voters. But how do you improve on 90%?
PNP politicians have every reason to be giddy. But a lot can happen in seven months.
UPDATE 2: A good video summary of Acevedo Vilá's speech at endi.com.
5:16 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Puerto Rican former ambassador switches from Clinton to Obama
Gabriel Guerra Mondragón, the former ambassador from the U.S. to Chile, raised $500,000 for the Clinton campaign--which is, presumably, why Bill named him in the first place.
His reasons: Hillary "doesn't have the numbers" to beat Obama, adding, "I want to win and I want this battle to end." He is convinced that the continuation of this process only helps Obama.
The primary reason? Guerra Mondragón says it was the tone of Hillary's managers, particularly their injection of race into the campaign beginning with South Carolina.
9:12 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday, April 26, 2008
Red letter day for the red party
The PDP has its genereal assembly tomorrow, during which Gov. Acevedo Vilá will announce his future plans. But PDP mayors have staged a last minute rebellion (with the quiet leadership of Caguas mayor and replacement-in-waiting Miranda Marín, perhaps?), calling for Acevedo Vilá to resign as the party's gubernatorial nominee.
All of which makes tomorrow history-making in every way, possibly the most exciting (non-election day) political event in modern Puerto Rican history.
7:30 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, April 25, 2008
Hillary push-polling in NC
Nothing should surprise anymore, but at least we got a song out of it.
12:26 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, April 24, 2008
Sorry, JUSIPER readers
O.J. will not, I repeat, not be appearing on The Apprentice.
7:50 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Smithson: Women hate women
Would be credible except that four of the six eventual winners of American Idol, and all the actually successful ones, were women.
Bloggers and fans on "Idol" message boards speculated that Smithson's prominent tattoos -- her husband is a tattoo artist -- may have put voters off, and that her choice of the title song from the musical "Jesus Christ Superstar" may have alienated some religious conservative voters.
But Smithson said she loved the prominent tattoo of a geisha on her arm, and suggested the judges may have misunderstood the image she was going for.
"I don't think they liked the whole pop rock...idea I have about myself," she said.
In a strong, diverse field of singers on this season's show, Smithson said she felt the female contestants suffered from an audience that lends itself toward women voters.
"Women tend to vote for the boys, and the boys are adorable. I definitely feel the girls have had to struggle this year," Smithson said.
7:49 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Clyburn finally talks
Very pointed words from a still uncommitted superdelegate who is the third-ranking House Democrat.
The third-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives and one of the country’s most influential African-America leaders sharply criticized former President Bill Clinton this afternoon for what he called the former president’s “bizarre” conduct during the Democratic primary campaign.
Representative James E. Clyburn, an undeclared superdelegate from South Carolina who is the Democratic whip in the House, said that “black people are incensed over all of this,” referring to a series of statements that Mr. Clinton has made in the course of the heated race between his wife, Senator Hillary Clinton, and Senator Barack Obama.
Mr. Clinton was widely criticized by black leaders after he equated the eventual victory of Mr. Obama in South Carolina in January to that of the Rev. Jesse Jackson in 1988 – a parallel that many took as an attempt to diminish Mr. Obama’s success in the campaign. In a radio interview in Philadelphia Monday, Mr. Clinton defended his remarks and said the Obama campaign had “played the race card on me” by making an issue of those comments.
In an interview with The Times late Thursday, Mr. Clyburn said that Mr. Clinton’s conduct in this campaign has caused what might be an irreparable breach between Mr. Clinton and an African-American constituency that once revered him. “When he was going through his impeachment problems, it was the black community that bellied up to the bar,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I think black folks feel strongly that that this is a strange way for President Clinton to show his appreciation.”
Mr. Clyburn added that there appears to be an almost “unanimous” view among African-Americans that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton “are committed to doing everything they possibly can to damage Obama to a point that he could never win.”
Mr. Clyburn was heavily courted by both campaigns before South Carolina’s primary in January. But he stayed neutral, and continues to, vowing that he would not say or do anything that might influence the outcome of the race. He said he remains officially uncommitted as a superdelegate and has no immediate plans to endorse either candidate.
At one point before the South Carolina primary, Mr. Clyburn publicly urged Mr. Clinton to “chill a little bit.”
Asked Thursday whether the former president heeded his advice, Mr. Clyburn said “Yeh, for three or four weeks or so. Or maybe three or four days.”
7:40 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, April 22, 2008
11 pm update
Looks like my prediction was on the money, alas. A ten point victory. Now it's on to Indiana, Obama's last chance to end it till June.
9:07 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Ohio redux
Race rears its ugly ahead... again.
19% of the electorate felt the race of the candidate was important. Among them, 59% voted for Obama. Among the 80% who didn't care about the candidate's race, the candidates were in a statistical tie.
8:35 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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From CNN exit poll
White men: Clinton 55% Obama 45%
Seniors: Clinton 61% Obama 39%
The numbers for seniors were above 70% in Ohio. But since Pennsylvania has a relatively small percentage of African Americans, Obama would have to win among white men to pull this one out.
BREAKING: Drudge reports Clinton 52-48. But no way of knowing whether his sourcing is accurate. In any case, early exit polls have very rarely been useful barometers this primary season, although the final reported exit polls for each state have never been off by more than 3 points.
UPDATE: Marc Blumenthal notes:
6:15 - As Josh B points out in the comments, Drudge has posted leaked numbers that are a bit different than the other source had. So...take this all with the biggest grains of salt you can imagine.
6:05 - Just to put a bit more emphasis on the previous update: The results "leaked" for Ohio at this hour on 3/4 showed Obama leading by 2. Clinton won by 10.
6:00 p.m. - I see that at least one publication has posted leaked exit poll results that most will consider a bit surprising. Please keep in mind that these leaked estimates have typically shown a skew in Obama's favor. See the table in my 3/7 National Journal column. Errors on the margin occurred (at this hour) in Obama's favor in 18 or 20 states I looked at, averaging 7 points in Obama's favor. The numbers leaked previously at this hour hit double digits in OH, RI, VT, NJ, MA, GA and AZ.
UPDATE #2: Obama would have needed an outright win among white men to be victorious in Pennsylvania. Clinton should win tonight, but it's the margin that matters. Anything below 6-7 is a win for Obama. I still expect Clinton to beat him by more.
UPDATE #3: Voter Action, armed with 150 complaints and an affidavit, is asking a judge to extend Philly voting hours till 10 pm because of broken voting machines earlier today.
3:48 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Early exit polls
A few thoughts:
Bad news for Obama:
1. Three in 10 voters were seniors.
2. Four in 10 owned a gun.
3. One in five "said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote." In Ohio, these voters broke for Hillary.
4. One in five said the same about gender. In Ohio, these voters, too, broke for Hillary.
5. Half the voters said the economy was the biggest issue. Hillary won this group.
Good news for Obama:
1. A quarter of voters earned more than $100,000 a year.
2. A quarter had a postgraduate degree.
3. A quarter of voters thought Iraq was the biggest issue.
Good news for ???:
1. One in five voters decided whom to vote for in the final week.
2. One in ten decided today.
Nothing here to really firm things up, so I would still expect a Clinton victory here.
3:47 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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JUSIPER prediction
Clinton 56 Obama 44. I am assuming that
1. About two-thirds of undecideds will go to Clinton, particularly since they appear to be in areas where she hold a strong advantage
2. Clinton is ahead of Obama by 8 points, give or take 2.
Why might I be wrong?
1. Clinton might in fact be ahead by less, and undecideds may (for the first time in this type of state) break for Obama rather than Clinton.
2. The large number of new registrants in the Democratic Party may go overwhelmingly for Obama
3. Depressed turnout in Clinton areas/overwhelming turnout in Obama areas (if election administrators conduct the vote fairly)
My overall sense is that the campaign in Pennsylvania was a waste, at least relative to primary results. Clinton was 20-25 points ahead in Pennsylvania before the campaign in the state began, but even nationally. Now Obama is 10 points ahead nationally, and Hillary's lead has narrowed... by about 10 points. So now she's 10-15 points ahead. Let's hope the time spent here strengthens Obama's hand in this battleground state come November. And let's hope I'm wrong tonight.
11:50 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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It gets worse and worse
Political Wire's report on Clinton's radio interview.
In a radio interview last night, Bill Clinton defended his comments before the South Carolina primary -- saying that even Jesse Jackson had actually won the state twice -- claiming the Obama campaign "played the race card on me" with its immediate denunciation of his remarks.
At the end of the interview, when the former president must have thought he was off the air, Clinton had this to say: "I don't think I should take any shit from anybody on that, do you?"
11:49 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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PA election officials declare war on African Americans
Are there any more groups in Obama's base to disenfranchise today? How systematic is the pattern?
Barack Obama's campaign is hearing that there are problems with voting machines in Philly -- that machines are breaking down, and only one or two machines are working in some predominantly African-American precincts, reports NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan.
I don't recall there being any voting problems in Philadelphia when Gov. Rendell needed to carry Pennsylvania for Kerry. Why do we see them now, when Rendell needs to carry Pennsylvania for Clinton?
Oh.
11:30 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More lies from Bill Clinton
Now he denies having made racial comments regarding Obama just hours ago. Even Ronald Reagan had a better memory. If you need to a hire a liar, always pick the adulterer over the actor.
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli asked Bill Clinton today what he meant when he told WHYY radio that Barack Obama's campaign had played the race card against him. Here is their exchange ...
ME: "Sir, what did you mean yesterday when you said that the Obama campaign was playing the race card on you."
CLINTON: "When did I say that, and to whom did I say that?"
ME: "On WHYY radio yesterday."
CLINTON: "No, no, no. That's not what I said. You always follow me around and play these little games, and I'm not going to play your games today. This is a day about election day. Go back and see what the question was, and what my answer was. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story to divert the American people from the real urgent issues before us, and I choose not to play your game today. Have a nice day."
ME: "Respectfully sir, though, you did say ..."
CLINTON: "Have a nice day." [continues shaking hands with supporters]. I said what I said, you can go and look at the interview. And if you'll be real honest, you'll also report what the question was and what the answer was."
ME: "They asked you if you regretted your comparing Jesse Jackson to Barack Obama on the day after the South Carolina primary."
CLINTON: "And I pointed out that I did not do that, and that I complimented them both. And that Jesse Jackson took no offense. And I called him myself, I said, 'Did you find that offensive?' And he said no.
11:25 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Obama writes a note
But these two kids are still suspended for attending his rally.
11:15 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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PA election officials declare war on youth
Residents in younger-skewing neighborhoods throughout Pennsylvania are being sent fradulent voter information cards; now they don't know where to vote. Is there a pattern here? And if so, who ordered it?
11:13 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Bill Clinton plays the race card on primary day
Again.
The issue of race in the campaign was renewed when former President Clinton, asked in an interview broadcast Tuesday with Philadelphia radio station WHYY about comments he made before the South Carolina primary, said the Obama campaign "played the race card on me."
"And we now know, from memos from the campaign and everything, that they planned to do it all along," Bill Clinton said.
Asked about Clinton's remarks, Obama chuckled and said: "So, former President Clinton dismissed my victory in South Carolina as being similiar to Jesse Jackson, and he's suggesting that somehow I had something to do with it? Ok, well, you'd better ask him what he meant by that. I have no idea what he meant. These were words that came out of his mouth, not words that came out of mine."
UPDATE: Still more:
Asked if there was any planned attempt by Obama's campaign, as Clinton suggested, to get the former POTUS to make a racially-oriented comment, Obama dismissed the suggestion.
"Was there something that we had a plan to get him to say that my campaign was like Jesse Jackson's? You know, I don't know what he's referring to, unfortunately," Obama said.
10:24 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, April 21, 2008
Financial Times endorses Obama
And closes with a sting:
How much the way that a campaign is run tells you about a candidate’s fitness to be president is debatable – but it does tell you something, especially if the candidate with the misfiring strategy is running on a claim of management expertise.
In fact, the campaigns have underlined the contenders’ respective strengths and weaknesses.
Mr Obama’s consistent and relaxed demeanour attested to his coolness (in both senses, his swooning young admirers would add); it seemed to affirm his authenticity. In contrast, Mrs Clinton’s hyperactive advisers dressed her in a new personality each day, sometimes several in the course of an interview. They wheeled out Bill Clinton, to remind people of the 1990s, then reeled him back, to help them forget.
Too many course corrections, not enough course.
Mr Obama has had some travails – over his association with Jeremiah Wright, the ranting demagogue pastor, and most recently over condescending remarks about small-town Democratic politics.
In the first case, he responded with a masterly speech about race that may even have improved his standing. In the second, he was evasive and unconvincing – yet the public seems to have given him the benefit of the doubt.
The US has the urge to be inspired a little. Electing the country’s first woman president ought to be very inspiring. But not this woman – with her dynastic baggage and knack for antagonising the undecided – running against this man.
The Democratic party has waited an awfully long time for a politician like Barack Obama. Enough already.
2:13 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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This week in Puerto Rican primary politics
Governor Acevedo Vilá will announce his decision regarding his political future this Sunday during a massive meeting of populares. in the Coliseo José Miguel Agrelot. All air will, therefore, be sucked out of politics in Puerto Rico until well after the Pennsylvania primary.
And since the massive meeting points to a re-election campaign, expect the air to be sucked out tlll the Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
In other campaign news, Allentown Puerto Ricans, who account for up to 20% of voters in the Pennsylvania industrial town, are firmly behind Obama.
12:12 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Clinton transformation into Rove now complete
Osama is featured in her final ad.
10:55 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
Final Survey USA poll of PA
Has Clinton at 53, Obama at 41. Expect Clinton to win by somewhere between 8-14 points. Here, however, is an opposing view.
8:54 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday, April 19, 2008
Distinction drawn at just the right time
Obama puts out the right ad at just the right time. A second ad here.
9:39 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, April 18, 2008
Indiana shocker
Obama ahead in a Survey USA-administered poll? Don't believe it. Not yet, anyway. But if Obama wins Indiana, this ends on May 7.
12:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"Naomi Judd confirmed our worst fears"
David Archuleta really may be the next Michael Jackson. Only more banal.
8:40 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Cafeteria Christians
Pro-life until birth, both of them.
The timing could have been better. President Bush, greeting Pope Benedict XVI at the White House on Wednesday, spoke warmly of the pope's arrival in this country, saying he came just when "we need your message."
"In a world where some treat life as something to be debased and discarded," Bush said, "we need your message that all human life is sacred, and that 'each of us is willed, each of us is loved' [applause] and your message that 'each of us is willed, each of us is loved and each of us is necessary.' "
The warm greeting came just minutes after the Supreme Court voted 7 to 2 to uphold the constitutionality of lethal injections as a means of executing condemned prisoners, a position the administration supported and all five Catholic justices agreed was constitutional.
The pope is, of course, a hard-liner against capital punishment.
A "hard-liner" on life on paper, but one who tipped the 2004 election to George W. Bush after he started a war that both he and his predecessor John Paul II claimed to oppose vociferously.
7:18 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, April 17, 2008
Thursday surprise
From TIME's Mark Halperin:
The Obama campaign tells Stephanopoulos that “prominent Pennsylvania supporters” will switch their support from Clinton to Obama Thursday morning due to Clinton’s negativity.
8:16 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Washington Post on PA debate
Even Tom Shales is shocked.
To this observer, ABC's coverage seemed slanted against Obama. The director cut several times to reaction shots of such Clinton supporters as her daughter, Chelsea, who sat in the audience at the Kimmel Theater in Philly's National Constitution Center. Obama supporters did not get equal screen time, giving the impression that there weren't any in the hall. The director also clumsily chose to pan the audience at the very start of the debate, when the candidates made their opening statements, so Obama and Clinton were barely seen before the first commercial break.
At the end, Gibson pompously thanked the candidates -- or was he really patting himself on the back? -- for "what I think has been a fascinating debate." He's entitled to his opinion, but the most fascinating aspect was waiting to see how low he and Stephanopoulos would go, and then being appalled at the answer.
8:14 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Puerto Rico delegate split
It's beginning to look like Hillary Clinton won't net too many delegates out of Puerto Rico.
Thirty-six of Puerto Rico's 63 delegates will be chosen by primary voters. Of the remaining 27, 8 are superdelegates, and the remaining 19 will be chosen at the state convention.
Today the Puerto Rican electoral commission announced the delegate breakdown. The 36 pledged (or earned) delegates will be chosen based on the results in each of the 8 senatorial districts. San Juan will get six, Carolina and Bayamón five, and the remaining districts will get four each.
Since it looks, at least for now, as if Hillary doesn't have a chance at getting more than 58% in any district, all but Carolina and Bayamón will split equally between the candidates. Indeed, Clinton could win the popular vote but for Obama to carry Carolina and Bayamón, netting him two delegates.
But, as we have written too many times, it is nearly impossible mathematically for Hillary to win the earned delegate count, and he already has a majority of the states. Hillary's only chance at victory is pulling out a popular vote victory (whichever mendacious way she needs to calculate it). So the island primary is only about netting popular votes for Hillary.
Of course, there's a good chance she'll lose Puerto Rico.
9:05 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"Screw 'em"
Hillary Clinton on the little people in 1995:
In January 1995, as the Clintons were licking their wounds from the 1994 congressional elections, a debate emerged at a retreat at Camp David. Should the administration make overtures to working class white southerners who had all but forsaken the Democratic Party? The then-first lady took a less than inclusive approach.
"Screw 'em," she told her husband. "You don't owe them a thing, Bill. They're doing nothing for you; you don't have to do anything for them."
The statement -- which author Benjamin Barber witnessed and wrote about in his book, "The Truth of Power: Intellectual Affairs in the Clinton White House" -- was prompted by another speaker raising the difficulties of reaching "Reagan Democrats." It stands in stark contrast to the attitude the New York Democrat has recently taken on the campaign trail, in which she has presented herself as the one candidate who understands the working-class needs.
"I don't think [Obama] really gets it that people are looking for a president who stands up for you and not looks down on you," she said this week.
5:08 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Surprise: Both Dakotas favor Obama
Yes, South Dakota too: they back Obama over Clinton 46-34.
Still more shocking: this is the second poll indicating that Obama would give McCain a serious fight in North Dakota:
In general election match-ups in the Dakotas between Obama and McCain, the data suggests McCain would easily win South Dakota, 51 percent to 34 percent, with 9 percent undecided, 4 percent who would not vote and 3 percent voting for someone else. In North Dakota, however, McCain and Obama appear to be in a statistical dead heat. The DWU Tiger Poll shows McCain with a slight lead over Obama, at 44 to 38 percent, but within the poll’s statewide margin of error, with 12 percent still undecided, 3 percent who would not vote and 3 percent voting for someone else.
The DWU Tiger Poll appears to confirm the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted in early March that indicated the race in North Dakota is very close, with Obama beating McCain by 46 percent to 42 percent in that state. As with the DWU poll, the SurveyUSA outcome was within the survey’s margin of error, surprising results given the fact that North Dakota has not favored a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.
1:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Character
The Washington Post tells us what we already know:
Washington Post:
Obama 49 McCain 44
McCain 48, Clinton 45
Favorable/Unfavorable ratings (January ratings in parenthesis):
Hillary Clinton: 44/54 (58/40) Net loss: 28 Net favorability: -10
John McCain: 53/40 (59/30) Net loss: 16 Net favorability: +13
Barack Obama: 56/39 (63/30) Net loss: 16 Net favorability:+17
Bill Clinton: 47/51 (55/42-Feb 2008) Net loss: 17 Net favorability: -4
Who is more honest and trustworthy?
Obama 53 Clinton 30
Who is the stronger leader?
Clinton 49 Obama 44 (but note February 1 numbers: Clinton 58, Obama 34)
Who has the better chance of getting elected president in November?
Obama 62 Clinton 31 (February 1: Clinton 47 Obama 42)
Who better understands the problems of people like you:
Obama 46 Clinton 41 (February 1: Clinton 48 Obama 41)
Who would do more to bring needed change to Washington?
Obama 56 Clinton 35 (February 1: Obama 49 Clinton 42)
There has been a 29 point shift in the assessment of Hillary Clinton's personal character:
Please tell me if the following statements apply to Hillary Clinton or not: She is honest and trustworthy.
Yes No
4/13/08 39 58
5/15/06 52 42
The Washington Post's assessment:
The percentage calling Clinton honest has dropped steeply among whites with higher incomes and levels of education. And while majorities of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents across demographic lines said she is honest and trustworthy, the class divisions remain: The percentage of white Democrats without college degrees calling Clinton honest hardly budged in two years, while those with college degrees have dropped off significantly on the question (from 82 percent to 53 percent).
Among whites, the percentage saying Clinton is honest and trustworthy has declined 10 points, compared with 26 points among nonwhites. That number has declined more sharply among liberals (down 30 points) than among moderates (down 13) or conservatives (down 4 points). Head to head with Obama on honesty among Democrats, Clinton faces a 23-point deficit overall, 17 points among whites and nearly 50 points among African Americans.
Interestingly, when it comes to the ability to handle individual issues, Clinton ties with Obama. What we are beginning to see is a character assessment writ large---the electorate has always believed that Hillary Clinton has the experience and qualifications to be president. But it has come to believe, after the months of this campaign, that she doesn't have the character.
10:41 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Bruce Springsteen endorses Barack Obama
From E Street to the White House:
Dear Friends and Fans:
LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.
He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President. He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years, a generous nation with a citizenry willing to tackle nuanced and complex problems, a country that's interested in its collective destiny and in the potential of its gathered spirit. A place where "...nobody crowds you, and nobody goes it alone."
At the moment, critics have tried to diminish Senator Obama through the exaggeration of certain of his comments and relationships. While these matters are worthy of some discussion, they have been ripped out of the context and fabric of the man's life and vision, so well described in his excellent book, Dreams of My Father, often in order to distract us from discussing the real issues: war and peace, the fight for economic and racial justice, reaffirming our Constitution, and the protection and enhancement of our environment.
After the terrible damage done over the past eight years, a great American reclamation project needs to be undertaken. I believe that Senator Obama is the best candidate to lead that project and to lead us into the 21st Century with a renewed sense of moral purpose and of ourselves as Americans.
Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President.
10:14 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Still more good news for Obama in Puerto Rico
PNP resident commissioner Pedro Pierluisi announces that Norma Burgos and distinguished Harvard alumnus Andrés López will chair the Obama for President committee in Puerto Rico.
Given the PDP leadership's strong preference for Obama (gubernatorial candidate-in-waiting Miranda Marín has already endorsed), the presence of two strong statehooders as chairs, one of whom is arguably the most powerful woman in Puerto Rican politics, should hold Obama in good stead.
4:05 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Clinton's big Pennsylvania victory
CQ says she'll win 53 delegates to Obama's 50. She can't win on elected or pledged delegates. As we wrote earlier this week, Clinton's entire strategy right now is based on winning states and moving ahead in her calculation of the popular vote. And that's all she'll be able to get out of her expected victory in Pennsylvania.
3:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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White voters in Pennsylvania
The standard line that Obama way behind among white voters in Pennsylvania is quite accurate.
But the latest Q-poll shows Obama and Clinton practically tied among white men. Clinton's lead comes from a nearly 40 point gender gap. She is ahead 62-32 among white women.
Obama is also seven points ahead among white college educated voters. Clinton, however, leads by over 30 points among white voters without a college degree.
Obama is ahead by 24 points among voters under 35, while Clinton is head by 31 among those over 65.
Obama faces a real problem among white Catholics. Clinton is ahead among this group by 63-30. In Pennsylvania, it appears, WASP voters are more likely to vote for Obama than their Catholic counterparts.
Finally, the real finding of the Q-poll is that the Pennsylvania race has showin practically no movement since late February. The numbers for Clinton and Obama among white voters are a point away from where they were on February 27. The only victor after these six vicious weeks has been John McCain.
7:08 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Just when you thought the Clintons couldn't go any lower
Comes this via the New York Times' Roger Cohen: "I’m troubled by Hillary Clinton’s recent innuendo-dripping remark that her Christian faith 'is the faith of my parents and my grandparents.' " Whatever goes over well with her Appalachian base is fair game, evidently. The media won't take her to task for it until she loses a primary.
6:45 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, April 14, 2008
What the Clinton campaign has come to
Her supporters write in to MYDD explaining why it's not racist for Republican Geoff Davis (you can't make this stuff up) to have referred to Obama as "that boy." Other supporters self-righteously claim that political racebaiting is a typical Republican tactic. Proving for once and for all that after governing like Republicans the Clintons may well be turning into Republicans.
It depends on context and verbal/nonverbal cues, but that's a pretty typical southern phrase. Not any different in most usage from "dude". [...]
you know guys, i think he meant boy as in "young'un. not boy as in black guy.
And at the Hillary is 44 website, still more:
I agree wiht Geoff Davis. THAT BOY”S finger does not need to be on the button! [...]
Why is “boy” considered racist? That’s bull. [...]
I would think “boy” refers more to Obama’s childishness, immaturity, and inability to do anything competently. [...]
Well I’m sure that it wasn’t mean to be racist. Going back centuries to rewind certain words and try to paint people .. THAT is chilish and shilly. Just goes to show that anything we say is considered “racist” just cause it happened to be used ages ago.
obama is getting his way again.
10:38 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Who can beat McCain in Michigan?
Not Hillary Clinton. But she is uncompetitive in the Midwest.
Obama 43 McCain 41
McCain 46 Clinton 37
3:53 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Rasmussen Shocker
North Carolina in play?
McCain 47 Obama 47
McCain 51 Cinton 40
1:00 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More PA craziness
Yet another poll, this time ARG. It shows Clinton 20 points ahead. With only a week to go, there is next to no reason to think Obama can carry the state. The best he can hope for is holding her down to single digits.
10:07 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
Obama, Puerto Rico... and May
It is true, as Obama campaign manager David Plouffe tells El Nuevo Día, that a 50-37 Clinton victory would only earn net her about five delegates. But it is already established that Clinton can't prevail on earned delegates.
But Puerto Rico is a primary, and the sheer number of votes means that a 10+ point victory could translate into tens of thousands of votes. Now, on one level, that doesn't matter. Obama's popular vote margin, according to Real Clear Politics, is a solid 827,308 votes. Even a Clinton landslide in Pennsylvania, will likely only net her 300,000 votes, and Obama's victory in North Carolina (Indiana will probably be a photo finish) should serve as a small counterweight.
The Clinton campaign, however, will calculate the popular vote differently. They will exclude caucus states Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington and include the raw vote from Florida and Michigan. According to this measure, Obama holds a very small 94,005 vote lead, which will evaporate after Pennsylvania. If Hillary hold Obama's totals in North Carolina and Oregon down, her margins in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and, yes, Puerto Rico, may just be enough for her to call herself the "popular vote winner," so that she can keep this going until the convention.
Hence the importance of Indiana. It is the endgame for Obama. If he loses, he will spend May to August fighting Hillary Clinton while John McCain travels the country playing the avuncular old pilot who is above the fray.
If he wins, the pressure will be massive for Hillary Clinton to exit the race. Obama will then get to raise and spend $50 million a month defining the general election contest on television screens throughout battleground states.
Obama will be the Democratic nominee regardless. But his ability to defeat McCain easily is entirely in the hands of Hillary Clinton. The Clintons' preference right now is for Obama to lose in 2008, so that they have their shot in 2012. Let's hope the voters of Indiana (or, unlikely as it appears, Pennsylvania) stop them.
2:24 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Pennsylvania
Obama's barrage of ads seems to have had some impact. He is now at least tied among white men and, of course, far ahead among African Americans. But Hillary is so far ahead among white women that she still looks likely to carry the state by 10 points. The news coverage around Obama right now certainly won't help him.
Assuming Pennsylvania goes to Clinton, Obama's only chance to knock Hillary out of the race is Indiana, where she still has about a five point edge.
2:07 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Dick Morris on Hillary and NAFTA
Ouch:
Forget about her claim to have dodged sniper’s bullets in Bosnia, or that she was named after Sir Edmund Hilary, or that she met a woman who was denied health care and died.
All of these Hillary Clinton fibs and exaggerations are basically harmless. But her current attempts to lie about her record and to pretend that she always opposed free trade agreements and disagreed with Bill on NAFTA is a serious distortion of her record as she searches for blue collar support in Pennsylvania.
Hillary was a strong supporter of NAFTA. Her official schedule reveals that she attended meetings designed to promote its passage and her memoir, Living History betrays no hint of any opposition to her husband’s key legislative accomplishment of his first two years in office — the ratification of NAFTA.
Hillary and I spoke frequently through all of 1993 and 1994 and together we plotted to help NAFTA ratification. She was deeply involved in the decision to enlist past presidents in supporting the bill and followed the vote count with heightening anxiety as it appeared closer and closer.
That she could totally reinvent her record, turn it around 180 degrees, and expect us to fall for it, shows her arrogance and her continuing belief that she can sell us on anything, no matter how obviously false.
Trade was no side issue in the Clinton administration; it was central to his key worldview — that he had to lead America to compete successfully in the new global economy. His refusal to submit to protectionism or to legislation to reduce layoffs — his commitment to the free market — was a singular badge of courage in his presidency. For Hillary to indicate now so fundamental a disagreement with a policy so integral to her husbands’ presidency is transparently phony.
And when Hillary entered the Senate, before she started to run for president, she was a reliable vote for free trade, supporting a host of bi-lateral agreements negotiated by her husband and by the Bush Administration. She even took the lead in urging the admission of China to the World Trade Organization, the key counter-protectionist step of the past two decades.
The gory evidence follows.
2:04 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, April 11, 2008
Best political news of the week
Because it's the most consequential. The right wing's answer to MoveOn.org, funded by a single billionaire, may not be the threat it looked like initially.
Backers of Freedom’s Watch once talked about spending some $200 million, a figure that officials now say was exaggerated. Lending to the aura of ambition, the organization moved into a state-of-the-art 10,000-square-foot office in Washington and hired a staff of about 20, with talk of bringing in scores more for a vigorous campaign to promote conservative issues.
Behind the scenes, however, Freedom’s Watch has been plagued by gridlock and infighting, leaving it struggling for direction, according to several Republican operatives familiar with the organization who were granted anonymity so they could be candid about the group’s problems.
Although the organization was founded by a coterie of prominent conservative donors last year, the roughly $30 million the group has spent so far has come almost entirely from the casino mogul Sheldon G. Adelson, the chairman and chief executive of the Sands Corporation, who was recently listed as the third-richest person in the country by Forbes magazine. [...]
Mr. Adelson, who is aggressively expanding his business in China and was recently appointed to a presidential advisory position on trade issues, has been a prolific donor to Republican candidates and committees, as well as independent conservative 527 groups, contributing more than $2 million last year alone. He also established a foundation last year to support Israel and Jewish causes and pledged $200 million to it.
In another example of fumbling, staff members at Freedom’s Watch spent weeks working on an ambitious package for the presidential campaign that included message testing, polling and advertising, only for it to go nowhere earlier this year. [...]
The group spent $86,000 on advertisements in a closely contested special election for a House seat in Ohio that the Democrats eventually won, but it stayed out of a variety of other races where Republican officials said it might have made a difference. The fact that the group has largely been on the sidelines has puzzled some Republican and Democratic strategists.
“So far it has been a lot of bark and not a lot of bite,” said Eli Pariser, executive director of MoveOn, which has warned about the group in fund-raising e-mail.
The proof of its ineffectiveness is that it hasn't used this period of Democratic infighting to strengthen McCain (and damage Obama) in battleground states, much as Obama would be doing if the Clintons weren't trying to sabotage him in order to resurrect their moribund candidacy in 2012.
But don't ever count a billionaire out, especially when he has investments to protect.
Freedom’s Watch recently announced it had hired Carl Forti, formerly the political director for Mitt Romney’s presidential bid, as executive vice president in charge of the group’s issue advocacy. Prior to working for the Romney campaign, Mr. Forti was communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Given his deep experience in House races, Mr. Forti’s hiring seems to offer a hint of which direction a scaled-back Freedom’s Watch might take in November, perhaps more likely getting involved in Congressional contests than the presidential campaign. But Mr. Fleischer said no decisions had been made. He said the group would still emerge as a well-financed, influential voice.
9:39 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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