JUSIPER
Friday, February 29, 2008
Andrew Sullivan
Why Obama is now the only choice for gay Americans. And the best hope for progress, ever. An excerpt:
To hear someone defend gay and lesbian dignity and equality from a Christian perspective and to do so in the context of a largely African-American crowd, is much, much more than any candidate for the presidency has ever done. It's a break through. If it were just words, it would be one thing. But he has now done this repeatedly in front of black crowds, when he didn't have to. And he has put his specific commitments in writing in an open letter. [...]
Now you may have many reasons not to vote for Obama, and no gay voter should vote on one issue. But solely with respect to gay matters, there is simply no choice here. Obama's positions, candor, courage, generation and religious embrace of us are dispositive.
Yes, the McClurkin flap was poorly handled and a casualty of the usual gay-straight tensions in the African American south. But it is overwhelmed by Obama's clear support and understanding of gay people and willingness to support our dignity at times and in places where others have not. I've seen it unprompted in private and unapologetically in public. I never saw it in the Clinton years, and Clinton herself is a victim of the defensive crouch that has immobilized progress at the national level for a decade or more. The current Washington set-up is broken. If you haven't seen that these past few years, you have blinders on. It doesn't deliver - and won't, without a president who actually believes that gay people deserve full equality. Yes, it's partly generational - Obama sees gay people in a way Clinton never will, as a function of her age and background. But it's also, it seems to me, an indication that he really is a Christian. One day, it will seem as obvious that Christians should support gay equality as it is now obvious that they should have opposed segregation. What Obama does for gay people in a religious context is just as important as what he does for us in a political one. Both are vital - because it is the abuse of religion that is at the core of the hostility to gay dignity.
What Obama is doing on the gay issue has the potential transform it and help us as a society to move past it. No, he's not a savior. No, we shouldn't expect miracles. No, we should never delegate the work of our equality to anyone else. We, after all, are the ones we've been waiting for. But within the Democratic contest, the case for backing Obama at this point in time is, to my mind, urgent, vital, historic.
Gay Americans must not throw this chance away.
Followed by the most trenchant analysis you'll read on fairness and the Clinton candidacy.
4:59 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Obama's letter
JUSIPER friend and occasional contributor Peter Keating in New York Magazine:
Yesterday, Barack Obama released an open letter about gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender equality, stating that “it’s wrong to have millions of Americans living as second-class citizens in this nation.” Obama is broadly committed to issues of special importance to gays, from advocating benefits for domestic partners of federal employees to supporting equal treatment for same-sex couples under immigration law to fighting HIV infection in prisons. But there’s also a larger context to his opposition to the military’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy and his desire to completely repeal the Defense of Marriage Act. Obama’s doing a little coming out of his own — as an anti-Clintonian liberal.
Obama has long maintained that Bill Clinton’s presidency was too incremental in its achievements, at least partly because it was too bogged down in partisan squabbling. For the most part, however, Obama has trod pretty gingerly around the topic of Bill Clinton, who is still extremely popular among most Democrats. Until Ohio. Hillary Clinton’s insistence that she privately opposed NAFTA, which may be true but puts her in opposition to one of Bill’s signal accomplishments, has freed Obama to come out against things the Clinton administration did that looked good at the time but don’t seem so hot now. Many Democrats have always been queasy about the Clintons’ fund-raising tactics; Obama has stepped up his attacks on Hillary as too beholden to lobbyists. And he hasn’t just hit Hillary on NAFTA, but made a more general argument: “Every good thing that happened [in Bill's administration] she says she was a part of. So the notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn’t politically convenient — that doesn’t make sense.” And now, gay rights: Maybe the Clinton-implemented “don’t ask, don’t tell” and Clinton-signed DoMA are the best deals Bill and Hillary thought they could strike ten or fifteen years ago, but they’re thin gruel for Americans looking for equal rights today.
Indeed, by pinning Hillary Clinton to acts of Bill Clinton’s presidency that Democrats look back upon with distaste, Obama is making her look worse than wrong. He’s making her seem passé.
4:37 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Prince Harry in Afghanistan
Romantic as it is to think of Diana's cherubic, drunk, swastika-wearing son's rite of passage, I suspect the Islamic world may have a different reaction to pssages like this:
Prince Harry has been battling the Taliban on the front line by calling in air strikes using a surveillance system known as Kill TV.
Household Cavalry officer Harry, 23, calls in jet attacks on the fanatics' positions in war-torn Helmand province - and gives the final OK for bombs to be dropped.
The prince, or Second Lieutenant Wales as he is known to comrades, also scrutinises Taliban positions to make sure potential targets really are hostile forces.
And he guides in helicopters to ferry away wounded allied troops and ensures no aircraft fly into the danger zone unless it is is safe.
His duties as a Forward Air Controller involve long hours watching minute details of surveillance footage beamed from aircraft flying over enemy positions or small unmanned drones. The information is sent to a laptop terminal, nicknamed Kill TV.
And on New Year's Eve Harry used it to oversee his first bomb strike. He gave two US F15 jets the all clear and they dropped two 500lb charges on to a Taliban bunker system. A third exploded moments later as enemy fighters fled.
In related news, Beavis says, "he said 'Jock Stirrup.'"
In a statement, the Ministry of Defence said: "Following a detailed assessment of the risks by the operational chain of command, the decision has been taken by Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, Chief of Defence Staff, in consultation with General Sir Richard Dannatt, Chief of the General Staff, to withdraw Prince Harry from Afghanistan immediately.
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Yet another early epitaph for the Clintons
Arianna Huffington.
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Will.i.am's new video
A bit idolatrous, but its message of African American-Latino-white unity comes just in time to galvanize the youth vote in the Texas primary. And it sounds good, too.
Best lines: "Éste es nuestro America. Mi América. Tu América." And "He's really going to be the President of the United States... He's going to speak for us, because we put him there."
Meanwhile, what could Hillary's people have been thinking? Who picked the singer for this atrocious candidate video, sung to the tune of the theme to Laverne and Shirley? Far more effective is her "nuclear option" ad. But you'll feel slimy just for watching.
12:32 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Austin rednecks against Obama
But they still like him, just not the way they like their sisters.
I don’t support Barack Obama and I’m not a fan of Hollywood but when someone deserves a thank you for doing a good deed then I have no problem acknowledging them for it. Like I said I’m not a fan of Barack because, in my opinion, his policies are detrimental to the US and I will not vote for him (no democrat). But he still is an important and vital person for the future of America. We see too many black rappers and athletes glorified who are horrible role models which leads to the deterioration of the black community in my opinion. We have a huge problem in the inner city neighborhoods that has been on the declined well before Bush came into office. When I hear a black child use ghetto slang and the pants are hanging almost to the knees I instantly have a negative thought of blacks in general. But when I hear Barack talk and see how he handles himself I think this guy is what all people should aspire to be like especially young blacks. Barack is everything good with America and shows the world that anyone can become what they want to be in America if they work hard, earn an education, help others and respect all people. If he does not win the presidency (which I hope he does not) it’s very important for America that he stays in touch and helps jump start a phenomenon in the inner city in which young blacks see people like Barack as their role model and aspire to more like him than like Snoop Dog or Michael Vick.
11:11 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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CBC for Clinton: "We are not Uncle Toms!"
"And we aren't afraid of primary challenges!" Good thing, too, because they're going to face some.
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"Y'all have Popeyes out in Beaumont?"
Obama talks to an African American crowd in texas.
"It's not good enough for you to say to your child, 'Do good in school,' and then when that child comes home, you got the TV set on, you got the radio on, you don't check their homework, there is not a book in the house, you've got the video game playing," said Obama while in Beaumont, in southeast Texas.
"So turn off the TV set, put the video game away. Buy a little desk or put that child by the kitchen table. Watch them do their homework. If they don't know how to do it, give them help. If you don't know how to do it, call the teacher. Make them go to bed at a reasonable time. Keep them off the streets. Give ' em some breakfast. Come on. ... You know I am right." [...]
"I've got to talk about us a little bit," said Obama. "We can't keep on feeding our children junk all day long, giving them no exercise. They are overweight by the time they are 4 or 5 years old, and then we are surprised when they get sick."
Obama -- who exercises and is careful about what he eats -- said obese children need to improve their nutrition habits, invoking the name of a chain that makes delicious fried chicken.
"I know how hard it is to get kids to eat properly," Obama said. "But I also know that if folks letting our children drink eight sodas a day, which some parents do, or, you know, eat a bag of potato chips for lunch, or Popeyes for breakfast.
"Y'all have Popeyes out in Beaumont? I know some of y'all you got that cold Popeyes out for breakfast. I know. That's why y'all laughing. ... You can't do that. Children have to have proper nutrition. That affects also how they study, how they learn in school."
10:48 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday mystery
Just how many Texas Republicans will vote for Obama?
10:33 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Another crappy poll from John Zogby
Has he been right even once this campaign season? And if not, do these polls mean Obama will lose Texas? He's allegedly ahead 48-42 there and behind in Ohio, 42-44.
One thing that may be accurate is that there may still be a reservoir of support in Ohio for John Edwards, who will be on the ballot. If Obama wins Texas without him, a March 5th endorsement will be meaningless. But if he endorses before Tuesday and Obama is somehow able to carry Ohio, Edwards will get all the credit.
10:23 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Anti-Catholic evangelicals betray their own
Hagees endorses McCain, Huckabee responds:
Huckabee accused the Rev. John Hagee of playing politics over principle by endorsing McCain, and criticized the Republican front-runner for not accepting a debate.
Speaking after a rally in Texarkana, Huckabee said he was surprised by Hagee’s endorsement because of McCain’s lack of fervor on abortion -- despite his 100% anti-abortion rights voting record. (McCain has, however, voted for stem-cell research.) Huckabee also said Hagee told him he endorsed because he assumed McCain would win the nomination.
“He just thought that the political rationale was he wanted to get on Sen. McCain’s team, and he thought he was gonna win the nomination,” Huckabee said. “I don’t think that’s a foregone conclusion, and even if I did, I would stand on principle more than I would politics.”
Huckabee said he spoke with Hagee, expressed his “disappointment and surprise” and asked him to hold off on publicly backing McCain.
“I felt that it was totally out of character for what I knew he believed,” Huckabee said, “or at least I thought he did.”
And it's one more reason that young evangelicals have come to harbor serious doubts about the sincerity of their faith's old guard.
A primer on the virulently anti-Catholic Hagee, in his own words. The Catholic League's hack president, Bill Donahue, responds:
“There are plenty of staunch evangelical leaders who are pro-Israel, but are not anti-Catholic. John Hagee is not one of them. Indeed, for the past few decades, he has waged an unrelenting war against the Catholic Church. For example, he likes calling it ‘The Great Whore,’ an ‘apostate church,’ the ‘anti-Christ,’ and a ‘false cult system.’ To hear the bigot in his own words, click here. Note: he isn’t talking about the Buddhists.
“In Hagee’s latest book, Jerusalem Countdown, he calls Hitler a Catholic who murdered Jews while the Catholic Church did nothing. ‘The sell-out of Catholicism to Hitler began not with the people but with the Vatican itself,’ he writes. [...]
“Senator Obama has repudiated the endorsement of Louis Farrakhan, another bigot. McCain should follow suit and retract his embrace of Hagee.”
Oh, and he's corrupt too. But that's OK. God always rewards faithful evangelical ministers with gold and 72 skanks.
10:16 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Geldof meets Bush
Interesting:
Irish rocker and humanitarian Bob Geldof writes in Time about shadowing the president during part of his Africa trip. Sounds like fun.
"I gave the president my book. He raised an eyebrow. 'Who wrote this for ya, Geldof?' he said without looking up from the cover. Very dry. 'Who will you get to read it for you, Mr. President?' I replied. No response.
"The Most Powerful Man in the World studied the front cover. Geldof in Africa -- ' "The international best seller." You write that bit yourself?'
"'That's right. It's called marketing. Something you obviously have no clue about or else I wouldn't have to be here telling people your Africa story.'"
Geldof has ample praise for Bush's AIDS efforts, but concerns about the widespread effects of Bush's war.
At one point during their interview, Bush launches into his "See, I believe we're in an ideological struggle with extremism" talk. Geldof puts a stop to it.
"'Mr. President, please. There are things you've done I could never possibly agree with and there are things I've done in my life that you would disapprove of, too. And that would make your hospitality awkward. The cost has been too much. History will play itself out.' 'I think history will prove me right,' he shoots back. 'Who knows,' I say. . . .
"'I'm comfortable with that decision,' he says [about attacking Iraq]. But he can't be. The laws of unintended consequences would determine that. At one point I suggest that he will never be given credit for good policies, like those here in Africa, because many people view him 'as a walking crime against humanity.' He looks very hurt by that. And I'm sorry I said it, because he's a very likable fellow."
12:37 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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One in nine black men ages 20 to 34 is behind bars
Thanks, Bill Clinton! Our first black president's crime bill was largely responsible.
More than one in 100 adults in the United States is in jail or prison, an all-time high that is costing state governments nearly $50 billion a year and the federal government $5 billion more, according to a report released yesterday.
With more than 2.3 million people behind bars, the United States leads the world in both the number and percentage of residents it incarcerates, leaving far-more-populous China a distant second, according to a study by the nonpartisan Pew Center on the States.
The growth in prison population is largely the result of tougher state and federal sentencing imposed since the mid-1980s. Minorities have been particularly affected: One in nine black men ages 20 to 34 is behind bars. Similarly, for black women ages 35 to 39, the figure is one in 100, compared with one in 355 for white women in the same age group. [...]
Although studies generally find that imprisoning more offenders reduces crime, the effect may be less influential than changes in the unemployment rate, wages, the ratio of police officers to residents and the proportion of young people in the population, report co-author Adam Gelb said.
In addition, when it comes to preventing repeat offenses by nonviolent criminals -- who make up about half of the incarcerated population -- less-expensive punishments such as community supervision, electronic monitoring and mandatory drug counseling might prove as much or more effective than jail.
For instance, Florida, which has almost doubled its prison population over the past fifteen years, has experienced a smaller drop in crime than New York, which, after a brief increase, has reduced its number of inmates to below the 1993 level. [...]
About 91 percent of incarcerated adults are under state or local jurisdiction. And the report also documents the tradeoffs state governments have faced as they devote larger shares of their budgets to house them. For instance, over the past two decades, state spending on corrections (adjusted for inflation) increased 127 percent; spending on higher education rose 21 percent.
Five states -- Vermont, Michigan, Oregon, Connecticut and Delaware -- now spend as much as or more on corrections as on higher education. Locally, Maryland is near the top, spending 74 cents on corrections for every dollar it spends on higher education. Virginia spends 60 cents on the dollar.
Many state systems also send offenders back to prison for technical violations of their parole or probation, such as failing a drug test or missing an appointment with a supervisory officer. A 2005 study of California's system, for example, found that more than two-thirds of parolees were being returned to prison within three years of release, 40 percent for technical infractions.
"We're just stuck in this carousel that people get off of, then get right back on again," said Los Angeles Police Chief William J. Bratton, who as New York City police commissioner in the 1990s oversaw a significant reduction in crime.
As a result of these policy shifts, the nationwide prison population swelled by about 80 percent from 1990 to 2000, increasing by as much as 86,000 a year. By contrast, from 2007 to 2008, that population increased by 25,000, a 2 percent rise.
12:26 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, February 28, 2008
50 state strategy
Only one candidates had one this election cycle, in either party: Barack Obama. Hillary skipped most of the caucus states. Edwards only campaigned in four. John McCain had a 49 state strategy, since he skipped Iowa. Romney skipped South Carolina, and Huckabee barely campaigned in non-Southern states.
Obama is actually going to fly to Providence, Rhode Island this Saturday in a state he has virtually no chance of winning. This at a time when he should be in Texas day and night. There is no sound strategic reason for doing so, but it goes to show that we may, for the first time in decades, have a president who actually campaigned in every state in the country.
11:48 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"Because this room right here is the America I want to live in."
As good a reason as any.
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"Equality is a moral imperative"
Barack Obama 's landmark letter to gay and lesbian Americans.
I’m running for President to build an America that lives up to our founding promise of equality for all – a promise that extends to our gay brothers and sisters. It’s wrong to have millions of Americans living as second-class citizens in this nation. And I ask for your support in this election so that together we can bring about real change for all LGBT Americans.
Equality is a moral imperative. That’s why throughout my career, I have fought to eliminate discrimination against LGBT Americans. In Illinois, I co-sponsored a fully inclusive bill that prohibited discrimination on the basis of both sexual orientation and gender identity, extending protection to the workplace, housing, and places of public accommodation. In the U.S. Senate, I have co-sponsored bills that would equalize tax treatment for same-sex couples and provide benefits to domestic partners of federal employees. And as president, I will place the weight of my administration behind the enactment of the Matthew Shepard Act to outlaw hate crimes and a fully inclusive Employment Non-Discrimination Act to outlaw workplace discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.
As your President, I will use the bully pulpit to urge states to treat same-sex couples with full equality in their family and adoption laws. I personally believe that civil unions represent the best way to secure that equal treatment. But I also believe that the federal government should not stand in the way of states that want to decide on their own how best to pursue equality for gay and lesbian couples — whether that means a domestic partnership, a civil union, or a civil marriage.
Unlike Senator Clinton, I support the complete repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) – a position I have held since before arriving in the U.S. Senate. While some say we should repeal only part of the law, I believe we should get rid of that statute altogether. Federal law should not discriminate in any way against gay and lesbian couples, which is precisely what DOMA does. I have also called for us to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and I have worked to improve the Uniting American Families Act so we can afford same-sex couples the same rights and obligations as married couples in our immigration system.
The next president must also address the HIV/AIDS epidemic. When it comes to prevention, we do not have to choose between values and science. While abstinence education should be part of any strategy, we also need to use common sense. We should have age-appropriate sex education that includes information about contraception. We should pass the JUSTICE Act to combat infection within our prison population. And we should lift the federal ban on needle exchange, which could dramatically reduce rates of infection among drug users. In addition, local governments can protect public health by distributing contraceptives.
We also need a president who’s willing to confront the stigma – too often tied to homophobia – that continues to surround HIV/AIDS. I confronted this stigma directly in a speech to evangelicals at Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church, and will continue to speak out as president. That is where I stand on the major issues of the day. But having the right positions on the issues is only half the battle. The other half is to win broad support for those positions. And winning broad support will require stepping outside our comfort zone. If we want to repeal DOMA, repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and implement fully inclusive laws outlawing hate crimes and discrimination in the workplace, we need to bring the message of LGBT equality to skeptical audiences as well as friendly ones – and that’s what I’ve done throughout my career. I brought this message of inclusiveness to all of America in my keynote address at the 2004 Democratic convention. I talked about the need to fight homophobia when I announced my candidacy for President, and I have been talking about LGBT equality to a number of groups during this campaign – from local LGBT activists to rural farmers to parishioners at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Dr. Martin Luther King once preached.
Just as important, I have been listening to what all Americans have to say. I will never compromise on my commitment to equal rights for all LGBT Americans. But neither will I close my ears to the voices of those who still need to be convinced. That is the work we must do to move forward together. It is difficult. It is challenging. And it is necessary.
Americans are yearning for leadership that can empower us to reach for what we know is possible. I believe that we can achieve the goal of full equality for the millions of LGBT people in this country. To do that, we need leadership that can appeal to the best parts of the human spirit. Join with me, and I will provide that leadership. Together, we will achieve real equality for all Americans, gay and straight alike.
Barack Obama
4:16 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Floridians don't want their state thrown to Hillary
Go figure:
Floridian Democrats also weighed in on whether and/or how their delegation should be seated at the national convention -- 28% said the state party should hold another Democratic primary or caucus; 24% believe the delegation should be seated, according to the Jan. 29th primary; 15% say “the Florida Democratic Party knowingly violated the national party rules, so it should accept the penalty”; 13% favor a delegation that is split evenly between Clinton and Obama; and 20% say they aren’t sure.
Bad news: McCain is significantly ahead of both Obama and Clinton in Florida. One big casualty of the state's decision to move up its primary is the Democratic Party in the state. Voters got a chance to familiarize themselves with McCain in the runup to the primary. They didn't get to see Obama. And now Democratic candidates across the state will pay the price.
3:59 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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What? Andrew Sullivan is gay?
But even so, his summation of William F. Buckley points to an interesting point: we are very already living in a time in which, in many parts of the country, a politician's forman stance on gay rights is seen as a key to his or her character, rather like views on segregation, miscegenation and slavery were for earlier generations. And twenty years from now, this trend will only cement further. It's why even four years ago Sam Nunn was no longer tenable as a vice presidential candidate for any Democrat (even though only Bill and Hillary could have actually considered him this time around).
He was much too civilized to have been personally hostile or rude. He published Marvin Liebman and David Brudnoy - and in his day, National Review was not as uniformly homophobic - or virtually Homorein - as it now is. But Buckley never challenged what he believed was a necessary moral and social injunction against gay love, marriage and sex. (In a heated debate with Gore Vidal, he responded to the vile accusation of being a Nazi by accusing Vidal of being a "goddamned queer." At least being a NAzi is a choice.) Gay men were allowed sex, as a function of a civilized society's benevolence, but only allowed. We were never to be regarded as equals, and our rights were always contingent on others' toleration. Homosexual sodomy was always subjected to more scrutiny and disparagement than heterosexual sodomy, even when sodomy became - as it did in the 1960s with the advent of the pill - the overwhelming sexual practice of the straight. And so gay sex lives were subject to the kind of thought experiment - tattooing our buttocks in the HIV epidemic - that simply would never have been applied to heterosexuals. He echoed Charles Kaiser's belief that gay sexual freedom and privacy could not apply to the HIV-positive, who were to be regarded as threats and enemies. And after Marvin Liebman came out, he was frozen out as well. Buckley's response to one of his oldest friend's coming to terms with his own nature was as follows:
"I honor your decision to raise publicly the points you raise ... but you too must realize what are the implications of what you ask. Namely, that the Judaeo-Christian tradition, which is aligned with, no less, one way of life, become indifferent to another way of life ...
National Review will not be scarred by thoughtless gay bashing, let alone be animated by such practices ... You are absolutely correct in saying that gays should be welcome as partners in efforts to mint sound public policies; not correct, in my judgement, in concluding that such a partnership presupposes the repeal of convictions that are more, much more, than mere accretions of bigotry. You remain, always, my dear friend, and my brother in combat."
Liebman was indeed a brother in combat, one of the great gay foes of totalitarianism, up there with Whittaker Chambers and Alan Turing. But he was always reminded that his gayness would bar him from full inclusion as an equal in the conservative movement. I wish that times had changed. But the stance remains - absent Buckley's grace and manners, and compounded now by the dark strains of fundamentalist bile.
3:30 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Talk about sample bias
A Zogby internet poll discovers that a plurality of Americans get their news from the Internet. Like, duuuuuuuuuuh.
3:24 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Hillary's cash
If it's true that she raised $35 million in February, a non-Obama record, then how is Obama able to be on the air three to four times as often in Ohio?
3:20 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Pulling out all the stops
Wouldn't this make any town of 52,717 feel special?
EUCLID -- According to Mayor Bill Cervenik, Caroline Kennedy, daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy, will visit Euclid Thursday.
Kennedy, who is campaigning for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, will appear at 8p.m. Thursday (Feb. 28) at the Euclid Lakefront Community Center, 1 Bliss Lane. Doors open at 7p.m.
11:12 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Michael Barone on PA
Clinton couldn't net more than 8 delegates even if she won. He adds:
In the 2000 race, Bill Bradley, after a big loss in Iowa and a narrow loss in New Hampshire, found it impossible to sustain his campaign for the five weeks before the next contest. He withdrew. The Pennsylvania numbers suggest Clinton would face the same problem, even if she wins both Ohio and Texas. A win in Pennsylvania would not be assured and would in any case not deliver a significant delegate advantage. Obama would have a big money advantage. Yet how could she justify withdrawing after just winning the nation’s second- and seventh-largest states?
A real dilemma for her and her party, which they will be spared if she loses Texas.
12:19 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Movement in Texas
The Hispanic vote in Houston is not in the bag for Hillary:
Ethel Kennedy shook hands with dozens of volunteers and said she found Obama to be a caring candidate and dynamic speaker.
"We are so lucky to have such an incredible candidate," she said. "He's so centered. He really cares about people who have been left in the shadows." [...]
Moments before the Kennedys spoke, three labor unions, including a largely Hispanic janitors' group, endorsed Obama at a news conference in the parking lot outside the campaign office.
Between 40 and 50 union members chanted Obama's name and his campaign slogan, "Yes, we can." and "Si, Se Puede."
"We believe we all deserve a chance at the American Dream," said Carlos Aguilar, a representative of the Service Employees International Union, Local 1. "We all believe Obama will be the president to give us that chance."
The United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, Local 770 and the Transport Workers Union, Local 556 also endorsed Obama.
Christine Chavez, granddaughter of the late Cesar Chavez, who helped form what would become the United Farm Workers union to fight for better conditions for migrant agricultural laborers, said she supports Obama.
His ability to inspire people to get involved in the issues reminded her of her grandfather, she said.
12:05 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Ugh
The Clinton campaign exploits a JUSIPER hero, the great governor who should have been president in 1992: Ann Richards.
The two sons of Ann Richards, the late former Texas governor, are objecting to an Internet video published by Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign that suggests their mother would have supported Clinton. [...]
"So many women around Texas and America are saying, `Wish Ann was here, for us and for Hillary,'" a female voiceover says on the video.
"Today Ann would be asking all of us to make a statement. She would be traveling to every small town and big city in Texas, urging us all to take a stand, be counted, to make a difference, to make history," it says while a picture of Richards and Clinton appears on the screen. "This one's for Texas. This one's for our country. This one's for Ann."
But sons Dan and Clark Richards, partners at an Austin law firm, say nobody can know who the outspoken and opinionated former governor would have supported in the race between Clinton and Barack Obama.
"As her children, we never presumed to know her mind when alive and we are not prepared to make a claim as to who she would endorse or what she would do if she were still with us," they wrote in an e-mail last week. "We are not granting permission for her name to be used in advertisements on behalf of either candidate." [...]
Dan Richards said in an interview Tuesday that they denied permission and he's angry the campaign published the video anyway. He said the campaign contacted him again last Friday to ask him to reconsider, and he repeated his objections.
"They asked me if I would sue the campaign, and I said no, I wasn't in the business of suing the campaign, but I didn't think they should do it," he said in a telephone interview. "To try to present who she would endorse a year and a half after she died is offensive to me."
11:56 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Galvanizing women voters
Very effective... and, despite the smattering of color here and there for effect, it is targeted primarily at white women. But it's too long to actually air. Or perhaps it was never meant to be aired, since it could trigger a backlash among male voters.
"Level," however, is fantastic. This Hillary would have destroyed Obama by co-opting Edwards' message in Iowa and New Hampshire. Fortunately, her strategy of premature triangulation nipped that possibility in the bud. But it should work very well among downscale white voters and white women.
Obama's Spanish-language ad "Oportunidad," however, is even better, providing meat and potatoes and the kind of aspirational vision that will cut across generational lines.
Obama's English ad on ethics, "Voices," meanwhile is decent, but hardly the type of ad that will move voters during crunch time.
Going to Ohio for a moment, the SEIU ads backing Obama (one,
two, and tres), are beyond ineffective. Some of the worst ads I have ever seen. What a waste.
11:42 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Hillary refuses to "denounce or reject" racist supporter
We shouldn't be surprised. With video!
11:21 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Pawlenty won't help McCain
Nearly half of Minnesotans hate their governor as it is. Adding him to the ticket when Obama has a twenty point lead over McCain won't help much. Pick Pawlenty, John McCain!
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, whose chances of being named John McCain’s running mate are tracked each week by the Minneapolis/St. Paul City Pages newspaper, today has a 52% approval rating and a 46% disapproval rating, for a Net Job Approval of Plus 6. Full crosstabs and tracking are here. [...]
In separate research conducted for KSTP earlier this month, SurveyUSA asked Minnesotans if Governor Pawlenty would make a good running mate for McCain or not; respondents split, with 43% saying he would, and another 43% saying he would not. 61% of Minnesotans say they do not believe Pawlenty would be able to effectively campaign for the vice presidency and serve as governor at the same time. (Question #10 and #11 in the previous link.)
11:03 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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If Ohio goes to Hillary...
It looks as if it will be alone among Midwestern states. Pennsylvania is trending Obama, and today came the biggest shocker of all, a poll out of the reddest state in the industrial Midwest: Indiana.
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, Indianapolis Councilman Andre Carson and Gov. Mitch Daniels staked big leads in the first Howey-Gauge Poll conducted Feb. 17-18. Obama had a 40-25 percent lead over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton in the statewide Democratic May 6 primary. [...]
The Obama-Clinton poll segment of the poll was the first one conducted on the bitterly contested presidential race that could find Indiana front stage center leading into the May 6 primary. Obama had huge leads among younger voters (42-16 percent), males (40-26 percent), females (39-23 percent), African-Americans (68-3 percent) and white voters (34-30 percent). "White females are the only demographic breakdown in which Hillary Clinton leads," said Davis, "and that is a narrow 31-29 percent." The 36 percent undecideds are high, but HPI Publisher Brian A. Howey reminded the briefing at the Barnes & Thornburg Auditorium this morning that U.S. Evan Bayh has endorsed Clinton and many Democrats hope he is on the national ticket. "The primary is still 11 weeks away and that size of undecideds is typical," said Davis. In the GOP race, U.S. Sen. John McCain has a 52-23 percent lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and leads in virtually all categories.
Howey noted that while Bayh, House Speaker B. Patrick Bauer, Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson and a number of congressional district party chairs and former officeholders are backing Clinton, a number of state legislators from Northwest Indiana, Indianapolis, South Bend and Evansville are backing Obama. "These legislators have their ears close to the ground with all the Third House meetings they attend. They are sensing Obama’s momentum."
10:00 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More on Texas early voting
They are shattering records. But they still only represent about 5% of registered voters. And remember, a majority of them are still alleged to favor Hillary, according to Survey USA.
Note that Harris, Dallas and Austin counties still only account for a third of the total number of votes. And note, too, that the percentage of early voting in Hidalgo county is already up to 10% of registered voters. That means Hispanic turnout in the border areas is extraordinarily high. Hillary's Texas machine politicians are turning out first generation Hispanics in high numbers.
1:53 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Pennsylvania Q Poll Shocker
It's not a firewall anymore: Hillary has gone from being 16 points ahead to just 6 without a single appearance or ad from Barack Obama.
1:45 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The biggest music video since We are the World
The Times weighs in.
4:39 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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So here's the thing
If Obama carries either Texas or Ohio, the race comes to an end on March 5th, thanks to Bill Clinton, who has insisted that Hillary has to win both to remain viable.
Once the nominee is decided, all Democratic office holders and superdelegates will endorse him.
Since their endorsement would arrive after the nomination is decided, they will receive no brownie points for their support from the next President of the United States.
What that means is that any ambitious Democratic officeholder who believes that Obama will win at least one of Texas and Ohio has to endorse within the next three days.
And that in itself will change the dynamics of the race in Texas and Ohio.
As Hillary's favorite news source says, developing...
4:32 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Liveblogging the debate
9:45 pm. Why did Hillary go after Obama on the Iraq vote? Why would she have given him a chance to bash her with her war vote again?
Referencing SNL and suggesting that Tim Russert wants to get Obama a pillow didn't play well either, cliciting the only audience boos thus far.
Obama on the whole has been given a chance to sound substantive, and that is bad for Hillary.
9:55 Obama got a freebie from Brian Williams: a chance to respond to Clinton's Rhode Island comments about the sky opening. He hit it out of the park. He has peaked as a debater at just the right time: during the only two debates that actually mattered.
Moreover, his answers have been not only substantive but angular, with devastating strategic pivots in logic. He has finally made the argument that no one has really made effectively during this campaign: that the war cost so much money that it made government programs unaffordable. And that, therefore, approving the war in Iraq cost American families universal healthcare. John McCain should be very afraid.
10:00 He has once again made the point that Hillary has to take responsibility for NAFTA, saying that otherwise she can't take credit for the Clinton Administration's achievements when she was First Lady.
10:07 She can't release her tax returns before March 4th because she's running for president.
10:13 Clinton: There's a difference between "rejecting" and "denouncing" Farrakhan. Bizarre, I thought, although Andrew Sullivan disagrees.
10:15 Obama once again gets the best of an exchange with an easy oneliner: "I reject and denounce."
10:26 Is Hillary finally taking back her vote to authorize the war in Iraq? A year too late?
10:45 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The anti-Mitt
David Archuleta is indeed Mormon. The luckiest break for the LDS since God's 1978 revelation to President Spencer W. Kimball that African Americans could be ordained to the priesthood.
And the anti-Clay? Why Danny Noriega of course: likeable and the gayest kid ever on American Idol, and the first one who doesn't care that you know.
UPDATE: Make that second gayest.
9:14 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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I was wrong
Looks like early voting favors Clinton in Texas, albeit only slightly. According to Survey USA, Obama leads among the 75% who have not yet voted, making the overall race a near tie.
In Ohio, early voters overwhelmingly support Clinton. Her lead among them is over twenty points. But they appear to comprise only an eighth of the electorate. And it's nearly tied among those who have not yet voted. So the last week of the campaign may matter quite a lot.
5:44 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Stephanie Tubbs Jones: Time for a primary challenge
Unbelievable.
11:41 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, February 25, 2008
Bush dancing
This video and this one are several days old, but they are appalling on so many levels.
10:58 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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How serious is security for Obama?
More disturbing anecdotes.
8:36 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Edwards highlights a pivotal argument
Both strategically and substantively:
Though he’s officially left the race for the White House John Edwards is still hoping to shape the debate, lending his name to a new “out of Iraq” movement and targeting John McCain for defeat.
Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and twice-failed candidate for Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, has signed up along with his wife Elizabeth to help launch a new effort that will present the war in Iraq as fiscally irresponsible, and place much of the responsibility for the war on Senator McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
The “Iraq/Recession” campaign, led by a coalition of unions and activist groups such as SEIU, Move On, and the Center for American Progress, will look to tie economic troubles at home to military spending abroad. It will also look to highlight the choice between an anti-war Democrat and a pro-war Republican. Edwards reeled off a laundry list of issues — from healthcare to the mortgage crisis to the potential recession to the number of Americans living in poverty — as symptoms of overspending in Iraq. [...]
Though he’s officially left the race for the White House John Edwards is still hoping to shape the debate, lending his name to a new “out of Iraq” movement and targeting John McCain for defeat.
Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and twice-failed candidate for Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, has signed up along with his wife Elizabeth to help launch a new effort that will present the war in Iraq as fiscally irresponsible, and place much of the responsibility for the war on Senator McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for president.
The “Iraq/Recession” campaign, led by a coalition of unions and activist groups such as SEIU, Move On, and the Center for American Progress, will look to tie economic troubles at home to military spending abroad. It will also look to highlight the choice between an anti-war Democrat and a pro-war Republican. Edwards reeled off a laundry list of issues — from healthcare to the mortgage crisis to the potential recession to the number of Americans living in poverty — as symptoms of overspending in Iraq.
8:15 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More from the NYT/CBS poll
That key questio:
How much do you think [Candidate] cares about the needs and problems of people like self — a lot, some, not much, or not at all?
Obama: 63 (a lot) 28 (some) 10 (other)
Clinton: 46 (a lot) 35 (some) 19 (other)
8:11 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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CBS National Poll
Obama surging nationally.
Findings: Democratic primary voters believe Obama has won. Obama beats Clinton, and Obama beats McCain. McCain beats Hillary.
(CBS) A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Barack Obama with a 16-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton among Democratic primary voters nationwide.
Obama, coming off 11 straight primary and caucus victories, had the support of 54 percent of Democratic primary voters nationally. Clinton had 38 percent support.
In a CBS News poll taken three weeks ago, shortly before Super Tuesday, Obama and Clinton were tied at 41 percent. Clinton led by 15 points nationally in January.
The former first lady has lost her advantage among women, according to the poll: The two leading Democrats now have even levels of support among female primary voters.
Men, meanwhile, disproportionately favor Obama. He leads Clinton among male Democratic primary voters 67 percent to 28 percent, and leads among white men 61 percent to 33 percent.
Fifty-nine percent of Democratic primary voters said Obama has the best chance of beating likely Republican nominee John McCain in the general election. Twenty-eight percent said Clinton is most likely to win in November.
Obama is now seen as the likely Democratic nominee: More than two-thirds of Democratic primary voters said they expect the Illinois senator to win the nomination.
When all registered voters were asked who they favored in a head-to-head general election match up between Obama and McCain, Obama led by 12 percentage points, 50 to 38 percent.
In a Clinton-McCain match up, registered voters were evenly split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.
Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among that group.
From USA Today:
The air of inevitability that once surrounded Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton has shifted to challenger Barack Obama. In a new national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, those surveyed predict by 73%-20% that Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
Democratic voters hold that view by nearly 3-1.
8:00 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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1 in 4 TX Dems have already voted
Survey USA will release their poll of early voters tonight. Based on the low relative proportion of Hispanic voting in the Rio Grande Valley, my bet is that the poll will show Obama at least 10 points ahead among them. Danger: Raised expectations.
7:47 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The Clintons show their true colors
Let's see how this plays out.
UPDATE: Jack and Jill Politics with more:
It's not only that I'm not ever going to vote for Hillary Clinton. It's that the next person who tells me that her campaign isn't using race as a lever against Barack Obama might get kicked in the face.
Remember when Hillary staffers were fired for circulating emails contending that Obama was a closet Muslim? Well, something tells me that's not a firing offense any more. [...]
On a related note, Maggie Williams will be fitted for her bandanna and apron later this week.
12:54 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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