JUSIPER

 
What is it about WA, OR, IA, MN and WI?

Posted by Sini

These four states, with 45 electoral votes, have voted Democratic since 1988 with only one exception: Iowa in 2004.

Kerry's margin in Wisconsin was the smallest of all 50 states: just 0.38%. Bush's margin in Iowa was the second smallest, 0.67%. Minnesota was #9 on the list, and Oregon, #10.

Now, here's the interesting thing. For some reason, Hillary is absolutely hated in all these states. SurveyUSA has just released midmonth polling from several states. The question was whether voters supported each presidential candidate no matter who the VP was, whether it depended, or whether they were opposed no matter what.

These are the results for Hillary Clinton in those states (for her no matter what vs. against her no matter what), followed by those for Obama.

Wisconsin: 30-50 Clinton, 37-40 Obama (Obama +17)
Washington: 29-47 Clinton, 38-38 Obama (Obama +18)
Minnesota: 34-47 Clinton, 33-44 Obama (Obama +4)
Oregon: 29-47 Clinton, 33-40 Obama (Obama +11)
Iowa: 29-49 Clinton, 34-42 Obama (Obama +12)

There are, to be sure, states where the margin is in her favor: Confederate and border states that are certain to vote for McCain, like Alabama and Kentucky. And, in her favor, Missouri and Ohio. The problem is that McCain is far more popular in all these states than Clinton is. She appears to be more popular than Obama in states either Democrat seems likely to lose in a close election, whereas Obama is competitive in the states any Democrat has to hold.

2:52 AM |