JUSIPER

 
JUSIPER Electoral Maps #1: Hillary in March

Posted by Sini

The Ides of March are upon us.

Let us begin today with the state of the race as it is. The Democratic Party has two serious candidates, either of whom could well be the next president. Obama has broader appeal and a shot at winning in states that Democrats have not been able to win since 1964.

Hillary, on the other hand is a known quantity, which gives her a high floor but a lower ceiling. Whether or not you think going to foreign leaders' funerals counts as experience, many Americans do. And if the economy becomes the pivot for the election (indeed, a liquidity and dollar crisis is far from improbable), she could become November's gold standard: a safe haven for voters fleeing instability.

Right now, there are only a handful of states that are firmly in Hillary's pocket. All except Arkansas are states that every Democrat has carried since 1992.

If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, John McCain begins with 216 electoral votes. Hillary begins with 163.

The map you see is not too different from the ones Al Gore and John Kerry faced in 2000 and 2004. The common factor is the extraordinary extent to which Hillary Clinton has to play defense: Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Washington and New Hampshire will vote for McCain and are nearly irretrievable for her at this point. The last two went for Kerry last time, and he made a serious play for Colorado. Gore was able to carry Washington.

Meanwhile, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota are not givens. No Democratic contender since 1992 has failed to carry them. Florida and Ohio, of course, aren't in the bag for either Democarat. SurveyUSA has both Obama and Clinton 10 points ahead Ohio, while Rasmussen has both of them 6 points behind.

Meanwhile, Hillary brings no new states to the table for the Democratic Party except for Arkansas.

This, then, is the state of the race if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, assuming no gigantic economic crisis and her ability to bring most of the Obama voters back on board after a divisive primary, which, given Obama's advantage among earned delegates, she will by definition have had to win very, very ugly.

1:13 PM |