JUSIPER

 
The Iowa Poll: a 26 point victory gap for Obama

Posted by Sini

The Des Moines Register poll is the gold standard for state polling. Results:

Obama 53 McCain 36
McCain 49 Clinton 40

Iowa and New Mexico are the two states that voted for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. Democrats have spent huge amounts of money in October over the past several cycle locking in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin--Democratic base states that they now barely win. It will be a huge advantage for Obama to have the Republicans on the defensive in Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, Kansas, Ohio, and Missouri instead.

According to the poll, Obama demonstrates general election strength in Iowa that echoes strengths he exhibited in winning the leadoff nominating caucuses last month.

Iowa's independent voters, who outnumber either Democrats or Republicans on state voter registration rolls, appear to make the difference.

Obama, who benefited in the caucuses from a flood of participation from independents, received support from 52 percent of voters in the new poll who described themselves as independent, compared to 29 percent for McCain.

Meanwhile, McCain received support from 53 percent of independent voters against Clinton, who was the choice of 28 percent of independents.

And get this:

Other good news in the poll for Obama includes a decided advantage among female voters, who preferred him over McCain by a margin of more than 20 percentage points. [...]

Against Clinton, McCain also leads among younger voters.

Perhaps most notably, McCain leads Clinton among women, 46 percent to 39 percent.

Clinton has made attracting female voters a key component of her campaign. The deficit with women is another disadvantage for Clinton, who courted Iowa women aggressively during her nearly yearlong campaign for the caucuses.

Michele Camp, a Colfax independent, said she would like to vote for a woman for president, but she doesn't trust Clinton.

"As a woman, I'd like to see a woman president, but not her," said Camp, 30, a homemaker.

She is among 14 percent of likely Iowa voters who say they would support Obama against McCain but would vote for the Republican senator against Clinton.

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