JUSIPER
Monday, December 31, 2007
Happy New Year
To celebrate, Lyle Lovett singing "God Only Knows," part of a tribute to Brian Wilson that was the most moving awards show moment of the year.
11:26 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More Iowa craziness
The final Des Moines Register poll has just been released. And go figure, most respected Iowa poll among political watchers says Obama is now ahead over Hillary and Edwards, 32-25-24.
In other words, it doesn't look like we're going to have a clue as to what's happening until Thursday night: politics as it ought to be!
At this point, it is impossible to know who will win, place or show, and that's enormously exciting. If Hillary comes in third, Obama may yet pull this one out.
Note, however:
Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.
In other words, Obama wins...but only if people who have never voted before spend three hours supporting him in cold gymnasiums on caucus night. We shall see.
11:23 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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As we wait for the Des Moines Register poll...
It's worth remembering that Clinton remains ahead in two thirds of recent Iowa polls. But there does appear to be a late surge for Edwards, even if the 30-29-22 Clinton-Edwards-Obama finish in the Insider Advantage poll might understate Obama's support.
Clinton is emphasizing experience, an effective selling point in an incumbentless race. Edwards is making the case for fundamental change (impossibly, ultimately, without media ownership and campaign finance reform, but bashing drug companies is an effective if insubstantial proxy). Obama, meanwhile, is the other guy, a messiah with a cerebral message and delivery that's too cold for the populists, and a greenness that will never appeal to the aged Hillary contingent.
The Clintons are probably not too upset about this, since their only real threat for the nomination looks set to come in third... and possibly a fairly poor one--particularly if his young, urban, independent-skewing and in general awfully cool voters don't make the time to do something as unimportant as choosing the next president.
If Hillary wins in New Hampshire, this is over, even with an Edwards win in Iowa. The only way to stop right now is for Obama to come in second in Iowa and pull off a victory in New Hampshire. John Edwards will need a still viable Obama to split the black vote with Hillary. With single digit African American support in the South, he cannot defeat Hillary otherwise.
11:10 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Time to declare war on the RIAA
Now they have made it easy for a populist politician to attack them. And since the entertainment industry sends so much of its cash to Democrats, Republicans have a rare opportunity to seem like good guys.
Now, in an unusual case in which an Arizona recipient of an RIAA letter has fought back in court rather than write a check to avoid hefty legal fees, the industry is taking its argument against music sharing one step further: In legal documents in its federal case against Jeffrey Howell, a Scottsdale, Ariz., man who kept a collection of about 2,000 music recordings on his personal computer, the industry maintains that it is illegal for someone who has legally purchased a CD to transfer that music into his computer.
The industry's lawyer in the case, Ira Schwartz, argues in a brief filed earlier this month that the MP3 files Howell made on his computer from legally bought CDs are "unauthorized copies" of copyrighted recordings.
"I couldn't believe it when I read that," says Ray Beckerman, a New York lawyer who represents six clients who have been sued by the RIAA. "The basic principle in the law is that you have to distribute actual physical copies to be guilty of violating copyright. But recently, the industry has been going around saying that even a personal copy on your computer is a violation."
My guess is that courts will determine this to be a classic case of "fair use":
But lawyers for consumers point to a series of court rulings over the last few decades that found no violation of copyright law in the use of VCRs and other devices to time-shift TV programs; that is, to make personal copies for the purpose of making portable a legally obtained recording.
3:53 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Edwards surging?
It seems that way. But no one has a clue who will come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
12:33 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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A nice summary
Of the threat Huckabee poses to the Republican establishment.
As an evangelical politician, he's practically an intolerant kook by definition, but he's still a better speaker than any other candidate in this race, and that's saying a lot. While his version of compassionate conservatism might mean little in terms of actual social spending, his willingness to regulate moneyed interests may be second only to John Edwards'.
Huckabee's Saturday morning press conference in Indianola was simply spectacular, the finest political performance I have seen by a Republican in a long time. You can find it at the C-SPAN video archive under December 29, 2007.
12:16 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday, December 15, 2007
Julia Carson, 1938-2007
The legendary Congresswoman has died. An African American who was far to the left of heavily Republican Indiana, represented a 63% white district. She will be sorely missed.
From the Indianapolis Star's affectionate obituary:
Carson, who spent a lifetime speaking up for those who couldn't speak for themselves -- the poor, victims of discrimination and the homeless, died today from cancer.
She was 69.
"A lot of people get elected to positions and forget that they serve all the people," said John M. Thomas, former president of Community Action of Greater Indianapolis. "She never forgot that."
"Her weapons of choice are blunt talk and a dollop of charm," the Congressional Quarterly's Politics In America once said of her.
A steadfast Democrat, Carson opposed President Bush's request for authority to wage war in 2002 and, in 1999, won enactment of a measure awarding the Congressional Gold Medal to civil rights figure Rosa Parks.
But to her constituents, she was just Julia.
The congresswoman -- one of just 25 black women who have served in Congress, one in the Senate and 24 in the House -- was the daughter of an unwed teenage mother who made her living in Indianapolis cleaning houses for the rich. Her mother's life was one from which she drew strength in later years.
"I never thought I would even be a state senator or working for Congress," Carson said in an interview in 1996.
When she did start her political career, Carson had a fear much greater than losing. As a child, she had a stutter so bad that she couldn't say her own name, and she worried that it would resurface.
Often she would deliberately arrive late at campaign appearances to avoid being seen with opponents whom she considered to be better-spoken than her.
But people who underestimated her did so at their own peril. She never lost an election.
"I told somebody, she may be an African-American woman, but she reminds me of a redneck county judge when she works the room," President Bill Clinton once said.
"She kind of sidles into these rooms in Washington, and all these self-important people are there in their expensive suits, using these big words. And then Julia sort of sidles out and she's got whatever it is she came in for and they still don't know what happened," Clinton said. [...]
Born in Louisville, Ky., Carson moved to Indianapolis when she was 1 with her mother, Velma Porter. She credited her mother with giving her the foundation to succeed. No person, Carson said, was ever closer to her or taught her more.
"I wasn't born on Easy Street," Carson said in an interview in 2002. "But my mother was always willing to share."
She never forgot how hard her mother worked for little pay. When she was elected to the Indiana House, her first bill was to bring domestic workers under the minimum wage.
Another experience as a child shaped her attitudes toward the poor and disadvantaged as well.
When she was 12, Carson had to go to the Wayne Township Trustee's Office to get food. "They looked at me something awful. I had tears in my eyes. I said, 'I need some food for my mom. She's very ill and can't work.' They gave me lard and cornmeal and told me not to bring 'my ass' there anymore."
Carson graduated from Crispus Attucks High School in 1955, married and had children. The marriage did not last, and she raised her two children as a single working mother. [...]
If her background was different from those of most of her counterparts in Congress, she also knew she didn't always look like a member of Congress, either.
Carson once told the story of how another congresswoman, who didn't recognize her, haughtily informed Carson that the elevator she was on was "for members only."
Carson looked at the woman and said, "So what's your point?"
2:36 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, December 14, 2007
Inflation back?
Will the Fed have to stop lowering the discount rate? Will stocks take a tumble? And will tightening credit slow growth during 2008 (the first two quarters of which, according to many economic models, are the primary determinant of the ruling party's percentage in the general election)? If so, Democrats could nominate the ideological equivalent of Dennis Kucinich and still win.
2:10 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, December 13, 2007
Cold
Tina gets the last word:
“Ought we to forgive Ike Turner?,” Farah Jasmine Griffin wrote in a New York Times profile in 2001. “The question isn’t whether Mr. Turner owes us an apology; he owes that to Ms. Turner. And only she can truly forgive him.”
Upon hearing the news that Ike had died, Tina Turner delivered her damningly brief answer through a spokesman:
Tina is aware that Ike passed away earlier today. She has not had any contact with him in 35 years. No further comment will be made.
12:28 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Want to see Catholic social teaching in action?
Don't look to the hierarchy. Look to the comedians.
1:37 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, December 03, 2007
Seconds
Larry Craig and Pastor Haggard shared the same escort!
4:19 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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It hurts to lose South Carolina
And even though he'll lose again, John McCain thinks it's still worth being the first candidate to show up on a racist talk show in hopes that a few rednecks will pick him over Huckabee or Romney.
Imus, in turn, will be polite enough not to ask about the black baby.
1:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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