JUSIPER
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Edwards: Bush is not a good man
The chattering classes are shocked. But at least three quarters of Democratic voters agree.
11:21 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Kid sues RIAA
And good for him, although you can't like his chances.
5:52 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Why Crouching Tiger was so great
Ang Lee to Roger Ebert:
"The author whose book I started with, Wang Du Lu, is really writing Greek tragedy. And, similar to my taste, he has a strong woman, and a contemptible woman. And he is focused on the values of the characters. They are warriors, and also role models. They have simple moral codes about personal transcendence. How do you perfect yourself into a higher state? When you're enlightened, you're more focused. I think that's the element that this genre has gradually lost over the years, with the emphasis on action. I can't tell you how many people, especially who grew up as I did reading those books, come and tell me this is what martial arts film should be."
5:19 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Clint on his two latest
Nice:
And in the full spirit of those words, he's spent much of the intervening two years devoted to the biggest, most ambitious project of his six-decade career.
That project was to have been a single film, Flags of Our Fathers, about the American soldiers who fought at the Battle of Iwo Jima—one of the bloodiest in all of World War II—and how they later became unwitting cogs in the war effort's well-oiled propaganda machine. Then, during pre-production, Eastwood had a thought: What about the Japanese troops? Soon he found himself at the helm of a second Iwo Jima movie, this time told from the other side of the front lines.
"I just thought it would be good to tell the whole story," says Eastwood with his trademark nonchalance.
As the war in Iraq nears the start of its fifth year amidst talk of a renewed military draft, Eastwood, who tends to be terse with regard to his films' thematic implications, says the contemporary parallels aren't lost on him. As handily as Unforgiven muddied (literally and figuratively) the mythology of the classical western, Eastwood's latest films shatter the clear-cut notions of heroism and villainy ingrained in almost every Hollywood war movie, up through and including Saving Private Ryan. "At some point, you have to get real about things," Eastwood says. "That may not be appealing to audiences who want a kind of escapism, but these pictures aren't necessarily for the escapist." He's right: The audience did not embrace Flags, which has performed well below Eastwood's usually robust business since its release in mid October.
Eastwood admits he's disappointed, but says he's only interested in making films that ignite his passions as fully as the Iwo Jima saga. "When you're younger and things first start happening to you—for me, it was the 1960s—you say yes to a lot of things. Your agent says, 'Do this—play in this picture because you're in it with Richard Burton.' Then someone asks Richard, 'Why are you in the picture?' And he says, 'Well, because I'm in it with Clint.' But why are we here? I did a lot of pictures like that—you could go through a whole list of them. People lean on you, and like all actors, you think every job's going to be your last job. At that age, you don't wait for the perfect thing that may or may not come along in 10 years. But now, if this is the last picture I do, that's fine."
And from a review:
Letters From Iwo Jima isn't the first wartime drama to suggest that to know thine enemy is to know thyself. William Wharton's autobiographical 1982 novel, A Midnight Clear, for example, tells of a brief détente between platoons of American and German soldiers at Christmastime 1944, while last year's sentimental French Oscar entry, Joyeux Noël, depicted a similar holiday hiatus on the battlefields of World War I. But the special power of Eastwood's achievement is that, save for one indelible moment, the mutual recognition between sworn adversaries happens not on-screen, but later, as we piece the two films together in our minds. The exception comes near the end of Letters, after Nishi retrieves a folded-up note from among the effects of an American P.O.W. who has just died before him. Written by the dead soldier's mother, it is, like so much of the correspondence in Letters, almost banal in its concerns—some dogs dug a hole under the fence and got loose in the neighborhood, and please come home safely. Then, in closing, this advice: "Remember what I said to you. Always do what is right, because it is right." It is Eastwood's queasy triumph that, when we hear those words, regardless of what language we speak, they have rarely sounded more foreign.
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Jack names a new name
Charles Grassley. Maybe Vilsack can get the empty seat after he endorses Hillary for President... assuming she doesn't cause another 1994 come 2010.
Of Iowa senator Charles Grassley, chair of the Senate Finance committee, who had been critical of Abramoff, Jack said: “You can say you have a good source that Grassley not only carried my water on the Bear Council issue [a fight over tribal recognition in Grassley’s state] and received a ton of contributions in return, but he also did one of the biggest asks from Abramoff ever, taking Tyco out of the tax bill. . . . They would have been hit with a $4-billion tax bill.”
And another interesting quote:
Of Ohio congressman [and now House minority leader] John Boehner he said, “He dined and drank at Signatures with the best of them.”
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Blair's rare moment of courage
After a week of intense debate, which reportedly split the Cabinet, the Prime Minister confirmed that faith-based organisations would not be exempt from the new Equality Act, which prohibits discrimination against people on the basis of their sexual orientation.
Instead the groups will be given until the end of 2008 to adapt to the regulations. In the intervening period, they will have to refer same-sex clients to other agencies that can offer non-discriminatory services.
"I start from a very firm foundation. There is no place in our society for discrimination. That’s why I support the right of gay couples to apply to adopt like any other couple," said Mr Blair. "And that way there can be no exemptions for faith-based adoption agencies offering public funded services from regulations that prevent discrimination."
The cardinal's response? As Christian as John Paul II would have hoped for--which means not at all:
Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O’Connor, the spiritual head of the Roman Catholic Church in England and Wales, warned Mr Blair last week that the agencies, which handle handle around 30 per cent of voluntary sector adoptions, would close rather than obey the legislation.
5:07 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The Italian Schiavo
Piergiorgio Welby, the Pope, and the man who should have been Pope.
4:52 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Who is the biggest murder
A woman who killed her husband to pay for bigger breasts, or the ten people who got 3000 American soldiers killed in an unjustified war?
I'd provide my answer, but it's probably the same as yours. Here's what you really want: the lurid details:
A woman was convicted Monday of murdering her Marine husband with arsenic so she could cash in on his $250,000 life insurance policy, some of which she used to have her breasts enlarged.
Prosecutors argued that Cynthia Sommer, 33, wanted a more luxurious lifestyle than she could afford on her 23-year-old husband's $1,700 monthly salary and saw his military life insurance policy as a way to "set herself free."
In addition to the breast enlargement surgery, Sommer's friends and co-workers testified, she threw wild parties and had casual sex with multiple partners in the weeks after her husband's death and the payment of the insurance policy.
Sgt. Todd Sommer was in top condition when he collapsed and died on Feb. 18, 2002, at the couple's home on the Marine Corps' Miramar base in San Diego.
His death was initially ruled a heart attack. Tests of his liver later found levels of arsenic 1,020 times above normal.
Interestingly, there's no direct evidence:
With no direct evidence that Sommer was the source of the arsenic, Deputy District Attorney Laura Gunn relied heavily on circumstantial evidence of Sommer's debts to show that she had a motive to kill her husband.
Gunn asserted that the defendant was the only person with the motive and access to poison the Marine.
The Marine's relatives testified that she objected when they asked her to put her husband's $250,000 death benefit in trust for herself, their baby and her three children from a previous marriage. However, she later put a little more than half of the benefit into a trust.
But, thankfully, the new and improved Cynthia has found love:
She is now engaged to a former Marine she met two months after her husband's death. She was extradited to California last March from her new home in West Palm Beach, Fla.
6:14 PM | Post or Read Comments (4)
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Evangelicals keep studying Obama
Their religion justified slavery and Jim Crow; now that overt racism is passé, Christian opinionmakers are as favorable as they can be.
My bet is that the praise (or lack of condemnation) will continue unabated unless and until he wins the nomination. If he loses the nomination, they'll be able to tell their congregations that Democrats once had a chance to elect one of their own but refused. If he wins, they can say, "Our Lord is very clear about abortion and gays. We are saddened not to be able to support him."
And this way, white Southern Christians can claim they are not voting against blacks but against gays--and that's a political winner in both parties in our Southern half.
6:02 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Patty Murray: Cheney is impeachment insurance for Bush
And she's right, to a degree. But my guess is that Cheney is the federal officer most likely to be impeached over the next two years.
5:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tom Delay to House Republicans
Stop yer bitchin':
I sympathize with Republicans now slogging through the awfulness of minority status, but the House right now is in the hands of the Democrats. I've been there, and it's the pits. Are the Democrats acting hypocritically, using rules they once denounced to advance their agenda? Of course they are, but they won, fair and square. It's their schedule, it's their Rules Committee. Democrats should not abuse their power, of course -- as they did with that initial vote -- but neither should Republicans lower themselves to the hypocritical posturing Democrats adopted for the last 12 years.
Republicans should ask for fairness, ask for justice, but not for anything they won't give up when they hold the gavels again.
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NH poll
Meanwhile, from New Hampshire comes the not-so-surprising news that Giuliani and McCain are neck and neck, and the more surprising news that Clinton leads Obama and Edwards 40-25-23 among likely Democratic voters.
This is somewhat surprising given that a recent poll had Obama slightly ahead of Edwards and Clinton. My guess is that Clinton in not that far ahead of the pack. More importantly, it's very difficult to know which candidate independent voters will opt for in the end. My guess is that this time they would be more likely to break for Obama and Giuliani. But what this and other polls underscore is that the whole of Edwards' strategy depends on winning Iowa. He is underfunded and has no natural base in New Hampshire. If he doesn't win Iowa, his campaign will die, possibly even before the South Carolina primary.
Finally, three oddities from the poll that lead me to have some doubts as to its accuracy: 30% of Hillary voters and 35% of Obama voters backed Bush in 2004, while 50% of McCain voters backed Kerry.
3:32 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The Decider
George W. Bush may think he's the decider. But that honor actually goes to the state of Ohio and its 20 electoral votes, which won't dwindle to 18 or 19 till 2012. Had John Kerry or Al Gore won Ohio, George W. Bush could never have been "elected."
Today Quinnipiac's Ohio poll shows Hillary Clinton or John Edwards beating McCain or Giuliani by three or four points:
"Those who say Sen. Hillary Clinton can't win the White House because she can't win a key swing state like Ohio might rethink their assumption," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "While it's a long way - 21 months - to Election Day, these numbers indicate that at this point she is very competitive in Ohio."
Among the top contenders, Sen. Clinton has by far the largest bloc of voters who don't like her, with a 49 - 38 percent favorability. By comparison, Obama's favorability is 35 - 12 percent, but 52 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion. Edwards gets a 46 - 24 percent favorability.
Among the Republicans, Giuliani gets a 53 - 19 percent favorability, while McCain has a 47 - 21 percent rating. Gingrich has twice as many voters, 50 percent, who view him unfavorably, as the 24 percent who view him favorably. For Romney, 80 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.
"Given their stronger overall image, Mayor Giuliani and Sen. McCain would seem to have the potential to improve their standing. That might be much more difficult for Sen. Clinton because of the larger number of voters who don't like her," said Brown. "Nevertheless, her showing in Ohio at this point is likely to be seen as a boon for her campaign in convincing the 'Hillary can't win' crowd that they are wrong."
3:29 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, January 29, 2007
Father Robert Drinan 1920-2007
Christianity once meant something in American politics.
2:00 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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What ideologues on both sides don't get
Is that Hillary is not as bad a campaigner as people think. Before an adoring Iowa crowd, she delivered a smart, optimistic speech that had Bill's deft touches all over it ("People say we can't have a woman president. We'll, I don't believe that, but we're gonna find out."), and sometimes even his intonations. Meanwhile, the background that made her a carpetbagger in her New York senate race is a huge plus: born in Chicago, dad was a World War II veteran, First Lady of Arkansas, Senator from New York.
In the end, Hillary has three things Edwards and Obama lack. Cash, gravitas, and credibility on national security. Polls have Edwards ahead in Iowa and Obama in New Hampshire. Part of those leads is based on the two men's looks, charm and expression. But another part is based on Democrats' congealed memories of Hillary as unpleasant and shrill. That was not the Hillary on display this weekend. And Iowa Democrats were genuinely excited to see and hear her.
Her ultimate ace in the hole is that she is ready to be president on day one during uncertain times. No one, Republican or Democrat, underestimates her anymore, and for good reason.
1:42 AM | Post or Read Comments (3)
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Sunday, January 28, 2007
Chuck's latest fan
Her ongoing search for evildoing daddies with big ones (Reagan, John Paul II) culminated in the worst op-ed piece of all time following the 2004 election.
But the new pope and her idol W have not lived to her expectations. Who will a daddyless Peggy Noonan turn to? Chuck Hagel, of all people--in part because in Peggy's soft head, where authority is never challenged and only Republicans are possessed of virile wisdom, he hasn't turned on Bush.
7:52 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Pat from Iowa
Is where a lot of Democrats are. She's also the reason this race remains fluid:
Pat was a social worker for 24 years, working with abused children, and she told me, “I knew the name Hillary Clinton long before I knew who Bill Clinton was. Hillary has a real name in that field.”
You might think, perhaps, that Pat Baxter-Rebal might actually be planning to vote for Hillary Clinton, but you would be wrong.
This is Iowa and people do not give their hearts or votes away easily. Not even to candidates they respect and admire.
“I am also considering Barack Obama - - he was here last fall - - and Tom Vilsack,” Pat said.
What about John Edwards, who has been to Iowa 17 times since 2004?
“I like him a lot,” Pat said. “But I have a sense that he is a lightweight. He doesn’t have the ballast. It’s hard to get past his charm, but his charm doesn’t count for much with me.”
She considers Barack Obama more experienced than Edwards, even though Barack Obama is in his first term as a U.S. Senator and Edwards served a full term, because Obama served eight years in the Illinois senate.
“That counts for a lot here,” Pat said.
But why not just go with Hillary?
“I am not satisfied with her explanation about the Iraq war,” Pat said.
But come on. After the cat, the blue eyes, the paw print, the red blazer, the knowledge of children, the 12 TV cameras and international press corps taking down every word, after all this, you are really not going to commit to Hillary?
“Well, she is one of my top three,” Pat said.
7:37 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Evangelicals
They are now so ashamed of what they have come to represent that they are shopping for a new name. Via Get Religion.
Who’s an evangelical? Until last year the answer seemed clear: Evangelical was the label of choice of Christians with conservative views on politics, economics and Biblical morality.
Now the word may be losing its moorings, sliding toward the same linguistic demise that “fundamentalist” met decades ago because it has been misunderstood, misappropriated and maligned.
“Save the E-Word,” was the headline on a fall editorial in Christianity Today, the 50-year-old magazine founded by Billy Graham. It quoted opinion polls in England and the USA showing “the tide has gone out” on the term, increasingly seen as negative and extremist. “When I travel, I call myself a ‘creedal Christian’ now,” says Francis Beckwith, president of the Evangelical Theological Society and a professor at Baylor University in Waco, Texas.
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Bush breaks the coalition
As Westerners slowly discover that they are not represented by Southern politics:
Why is the Interior West breaking so heavily against the GOP? The answer lies in President Bush's brand of big-government, big-religion conservatism. The Republican Party has long balanced its Southern wing against its Western one. But under Bush, the party's Southern values (religion, tradition, morality) have utterly overwhelmed its Western ones (freedom, independence, privacy).
While few voters in the West (or anywhere else, for that matter) are capital-L Libertarians, a libertarian streak runs strong in the Rocky Mountains. Data from the Pew Research Center show that when it comes to issues of religion and morality, the Interior West is much closer to the socially liberal Northeast and the Pacific Coast than it is to the South. At the same time, however, folks in the Interior West are fairly conservative on fiscal matters.
On top of this libertarian streak (and, to varying extents, contributing to it) are three major demographic trends that bode ill for the GOP in the region:
-- Lack of Evangelicals: Evangelicals have been the strongest supporters of Bush and his GOP. But there simply is not a multitude of them in the Interior West. In the region's eight states, Evangelicals make up only between 29 percent and 34 percent of the population. That's compared to 41 percent of the population in Virginia, 51 percent in Texas and 73 percent in Mississippi.
-- Influx of Hispanics: Latino movement into the Interior West is hardly a secret. But Republicans have been far too optimistic about their chances of winning over this population. Bush may have won 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, but Hispanic party preference still cuts between 2 to 1 and 3 to 1 against the GOP at the congressional level. And recent anti-immigrant rhetoric from the party's restrictionist wing has done major damage; exit polls show that the GOP lost 14 percentage points with Hispanic voters between 2004 and 2006, the biggest drop with any group polled.
-- In-migration of Californians: Just as important as the Hispanic influx are the migrants from the Left Coast. More than 400,000 Arizonans and 360,000 Nevadans were born in California. The sparsely populated Mountain West states are taking on their share of Golden Staters. Montana is 5 percent ex-Californians; Idaho is 9 percent ex-Californians. These folks are bringing blue-state social values with them, but (since they're often fleeing high taxes and high cost of living) they are fiscal conservatives.
6:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Poll surprise
Not Newsweek having Bush down to his lowest approval ever but rather that Hillary beats McCain handily, 50-44. Obama beats him 48-42, and Edwards 48-44. Only blank slate Obama, incidentally, wins among independents--not surprising since an unnamed Democrat now beats an unnamed Republican by over twenty points.
4:50 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, January 26, 2007
FUTK
Presumably no one in the media will give him the public shaming he deserves.
7:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Run, Chuck, run!
The only serious Republican remaining in the U.S. Senate is considering a run for the presidency. Should he run, he receives our early endorsement for the Republican nomination.
Our previous endorsements, with the caveat that in each case, the Democratic nominee would have been preferable in a general election:
2004: none
2000: pre-whore John McCain
1996: pre-whore Richard Lugar
1992: none
1988: none, but Bob Dole would have been far preferable to Bush.
7:30 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Romney's supporters defend their man
As evangelicals get their panties in a bunch over his Mormonism and multiple choice positions on abortion and gay rights.
Nobody is talking about it, but Romney excommunicated about a dozen gays and women who received abortions from the Mormon church while he was stake president BEFORE running against Kennedy. I happen to know he’s always hated gays and abortionists. Excommunication is a pretty cruel thing to do to your members — you strip them of their membership and they’re gone. Even Romney’s father, who is thought to have been a moderate, excommunicated the entire state of Maine in the 60’s (thousands of Mormons) for supporting abortion. If you take only the most liberal statements someone has ever made in their life, and try to make them typify the person, you can make anyone look like a liberal. I once saw a list of quotes from Hitler that, taken alone, made him look like a pro-Jew rabbi.
6:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Interesting
The online survey intended to flatter potential McCain donors doesn't even mention gay marriage or abortion.
4:35 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Interesting
The online survey intended to flatter potential McCain donors doesn't even mention gay marriage or abortion.
4:34 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, January 25, 2007
Why Webb's response was so great
Via JUSIPER reader M., the great E. J. Dionne.
3:48 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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On September 26, 2000
The following appeared in Wired:
Texas Gov. George W. Bush plans to highlight consumer privacy if elected president, a key advisor says.
"I believe a Bush administration would support targeted restrictions, including an 'opt-in' approach on sharing health or medical information," said Lawrence Lindsey, resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
"Likewise, I could envision the new administration supporting targeted restrictions on the government's use of information related to individuals." [...]
The Clinton-Gore administration last year derailed a bill that would shield bank records from the feds, claiming it would aid money laundering. Bush seems to be more inclined to limit the power of the government.
4:28 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Video of the day
A flashback to the 70's, when dancing was an art, Gladys didn't sing for Vegas, and the great Don Cornelius was hosted Soul Train.
4:44 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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27B Stroke 6
New Jersey's Supreme Court: on the vanguard of privacy rights.
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Obama and African Americans, part III
Mark Blumenthal:
As per Mickey Kaus's item today, speculation will no doubt center on whether African Americans harbor doubts about Obama. Similar speculation preceded his 2004 primary contest, when Obama won virtually all of black vote among Illinois Democrats. The more likely explanation for the current standings is a combination of Democrats strong loyalty to the Clintons among African Americans (as noted by Kaus) and relative unfamiliarity with Obama among ordinary voters. Yes, he has been covered extensively and is well known to political junkies. But never underestimate how remote most political coverage is to everyone else.
Having polled for one of Obama's primary opponents in 2004, I can tell you that whatever doubts Illnois African-Americans may have had about Obama prior to the 2004 primary race, they faded fast as he began to run television advertising, move in the polls and receive routine coverage on media outlets (read local TV news) that reached real voters. The same could happen nationally should he score an early victory in Iowa or New Hampshire. Of course, his opponents in the Illinois primary were a far cry from Hilary Clinton in terms of their appeal to black voters. So, as with most of these sorts of interesting questions, we will have to wait for the real votes to be cast to know for certain.
2:25 AM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Iowa
Yet another poll of likely caucusgoers, this one by Strategic Vision. Giuliani ahead of McCain and Gingrich 25-21-13. Romney is in fourth with 8; Hagel, interestingly, is at 7, suggesting that the farm state senator and JUSIPER favorite might have some potential popularity here as a dark horse... and that Multiple Choice Romney may not be the "conservative" contender many think he is.
This poll echoes an earlier one for Democrats: Edwards in first with a nearly ten point margin (25), Obama second(17), Vilsack third(16), Hillary fourth(15). The one difference this time is that Vilsack and Clinton poll a few points higher. If Vilsack is indeed a stalking horse for Hillary, then Hillary wins. But Vilsack's policy positions are populist and now so strongly anti-war that it's hard to see that his backers would willingly throw all their votes behind her.
In short, Edwards has a real advantage here, but the race remains very fluid. Biden, surprisingly, has managed 4%, which puts him one point ahead of Kerry.
Are you a Hollywood liberal with lots of spare cash who really wants to help the Democrats? Don't give to Hillary or Obama; they'll just spend the money to beat one another. Instead, help out the Tancredo campaign. Enough rhetoric from him will move the entire Republican field to the right on immigration, putting Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada within reach.
UPDATE: UPDATE: MyDD has the grid.
2:24 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007
That was the bomb baby, welcome to Hollywood!
Jim Webb hits one out of the park. It was the best Democratic response since the great days of Jim Wright. Did Barack or Hillary see a running mate tonight? I bet not, but if he burnishes his credentials on domestic politics, he may deserve the nomination.
11:30 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Internet 2008 straw poll
Take it and see the strange results, including the mysterious second place showing by the Democratic candidate almost no one is talking about. Over 10,000 ballots cast so far.
5:49 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Novak in awe of Pelosi
And of Democrats' unity and their use of those undemocratic rules.
Such details are obscured, however, by the brilliant success of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's "first hundred hours." The student loan bill is one of the politically popular measures rushed through opening days of the first Democratic-controlled House session in 12 years -- without hearings, without committee authorization and without meaningful debate. While Democratic support has been unanimous, Republicans are divided and listless.
In contrast to ideologically diverse Democrats who controlled Congress in the past, today's House majority members look like automatons not only in the way they look but how they talk. The hand of Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, was apparent as Democrats newly elected under his chairmanship took the floor to deliver nearly identical speeches of how this bill will help poor students. [...]
This [bankers' associations'] warning was not expected to impact heady Democrats, but it should have promoted caution among Republicans. It did not. While Democrats voted 232-0 for the bill, only 71 Republicans followed their leadership to vote against it. The 124 Republicans voting aye included such erstwhile conservative stalwarts as Todd Akin (Mo.), Virgil Goode (Va.), Chip Pickering (Miss.), Joe Pitts (Pa.), Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.), Ed Royce (Calif.) and Todd Tiahrt (Kan.).
The once-militant, united House Republicans are demoralized and on the run. They were battered in the last campaign for cutting school loans in the previous Congress and are willing to go along with a sham bill, hoping for Senate gridlock and a presidential veto.
5:44 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Not a fresh 2008 campaign
But a replay of the tired, albeit successfulClinton 1992 campaign.
But after listening to Hillary's inaugural campaign video an perusing her recent speeches, it seems as if she'll b campaigning not so much as Clinton 3.0 but more as Clinto 1.0, the "putting people first" Beta version from Bill Clinton' 1992 campaign that got tossed overboard in the earl months of his first term. While candidate Bill campaigned o a Main Street-friendly program of increasing publi investment in human capital–aka workers–President Bil shifted to a Wall Street-friendly strategy of cutting th budget deficit so the Federal Reserve and bond marke would lower interest rates. (The theory was that out-of-control deficits would devalue the dollar and create highe inflation down the road.
And what that would mean is a populist campaign followed by a Wall Street presidency... exactly what you would expect from a campaign Wall Street paid for. I'd rather a presidency paid for by John Edwards' trial lawyers.
5:35 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Political learning
The GOP is discovering peace, says Novak:
One nationally prominent Republican pollster reported confidentially on Capitol Hill after the president's speech that if U.S. boots are still on the ground in Iraq and U.S. blood is still being spilled there at the end of the year, the GOP disaster in 2008 will eclipse 2006. Thus, many Republican congressmembers have tied their hopes to Bush's pledge that Iraqi forces will take over local security by September. [...]
The conservative elite of the House of Representatives, members who had 100 percent positive voting records as measured by the American Conservative Union (ACU), gathered Wednesday morning for an ACU breakfast on Capitol Hill. They still talked about "winning" in Iraq and deplored the consequences of "surrendering."
But they do not know how that victory can be achieved if the Iraqi government is tied to the Shiite militia, a political dilemma in Iraq that no increase in U.S. troops can solve. Republicans can only hope that Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her sidekick, Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania, overplay their hands by cutting off funds to U.S. troops in the field. It is a slim hope for now.
5:24 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"Muslims see no conflict between Islamic law and democracy"
The results of the Gallup poll cause little self-reflection among Freepers, who see no conflict between James Dobson's law and democracy.
As one reader notes, "What an easy little poll this is. Muslims say that Islamic law is compatible with democracy. The poll didn't ask: 'Which do you prefer?' That question would get us to the meat of their beliefs." So true.
5:18 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Heckuva job, Brownie
Now, anyway. Stephanie Grace of the Times Picayune, America's greatest newspaper, on why his recent comments should have been page one news all ove the country.
"Unbeknownst to me, certain people in the White House were thinking, 'We had to federalize Louisiana because she's a white, female Democratic governor, and we have a chance to rub her nose in it,' " Brown said. " 'We can't do it to Haley (Barbour) because Haley's a white male Republican governor. And we can't do a thing to him. So we're just gonna federalize Louisiana.' "
Blanco is clearly prepared to believe Brown's account and said over the weekend that having the White House play politics "while our people were dying" is "disgusting. E-mails that she long ago made public back up Brown's claim that the administration was trying to shift bad publicity to the state.
One, from a national reporter, asserted that senior Republican aides were trying to plant stories focusing more blame on Blanco. An exchange between Blanco aides said a prominent New Orleans banker "has it on very good authority that Karl Rove is directing effort to put blame kbb (Blanco) for mess saying that the reason feds not on ground sooner was that she refused to give up her authority."
At least one other account bolsters Brown's story as well. Time Magazine reported soon after the storm that, while Bush pressured Blanco to give up control over law enforcement and the National Guard, Barbour's spokesman said no such request was made of his boss.
The White House, which has not released its own internal communications, denied that at the time, and over the weekend, it dismissed Brown's latest comments as "false."
Fair enough. But the dispute is all the more reason finally get to the bottom of things.
Joe Lieberman has agreed not to hold the government accountable for Katrina, part of his unspoken gentlemen's quid pro quo with Karl Rove.
New chairman Joseph Lieberman, who had previously denounced the administration for withholding information from the committee, said recently that he's now inclined not to press the issue because he is not interested in a "witch hunt."
Brown's newest accusation demands that Landrieu, a close Lieberman ally and one of the few Democrats to support him against a more liberal challenger, needs to press to hold hearings and, if the White House remains obstinate, issue subpoenas.
It's a matter of setting the historical record straight, and, for the people of Louisiana who were treated so badly, of closure. And if nothing else, Brown's very unreliability demands that we get to the bottom of the question, once and for all, ourselves.
Hopefully the People's House will act.
5:02 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Hillary and Robert Johnson
The black vote will likely decide the Democratic nomination. That's why the polls showing Hillary's overwhelming advantage over Obama among African Americans are so significant. Here's an outstanding piece on the Clintons' race strategy.
One other thing about that poll. Edwards won the black vote in South Carolina in 2004, but the dynamics are extraordinarily different now.
If Edwards can't raise his share of the black vote above 4%, it's exceedingly hard to see how he can win the nomination even if Obama makes Hillary fight for it.
4:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Hillary's ace in the hole
Cash, lots and lots of it. She'll be bought and paid for from day one. Obama will be able to raise a good deal of cash, and Edwards less. She will be able to continue even if she loses three of the first four primaries. Obama and Edwards might not.
4:29 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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CNN poll
A majority of Americans now trust George W. Bush less than Bill Clinton.
4:25 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The world hates us!
Big surprise.
Global opinion of U.S. foreign policy has sharply deteriorated in the past two years, according to a BBC poll released on the eve of President Bush's annual State of the Union address.
Nearly three-quarters of those polled in 25 countries disapprove of U.S. policies toward Iraq, and more than two-thirds said the U.S. military presence in the Middle East does more harm than good. Nearly half of those polled in Europe, Africa, Asia, South America and the Middle East said the United States is now playing a mainly negative role in the world. [...]
In the 18 countries previously polled by the BBC, people who said the United States was having a generally positive influence in the world dropped to 29 percent, from 36 percent last year and 40 percent the year before.
"I thought it had bottomed out a year ago, but it's gotten worse, and we really are at historic lows," said Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes. Kull attributed much of the problem to a growing perception of "hypocrisy" on the part of the United States in such areas as cooperation with the United Nations and other international bodies, especially involving the use of military force.
"The thing that comes up repeatedly is not just anger about Iraq," Kull said, adding that the BBC poll is consistent with numerous other surveys around the world that have measured attitudes toward the United States. "The common theme is hypocrisy. The reaction tends to be: 'You were a champion of a certain set of rules. Now you are breaking your own rules, so you are being hypocritical.' " [...]
Although Prime Minister Tony Blair has been Bush's chief foreign ally in the Iraq war, British views of U.S. policies were particularly negative. Fifty-seven percent of Britons surveyed said the United States plays a mainly negative role in the world; 33 percent said the U.S. influence was mainly positive, down three percentage points from last year.
Eighty-one percent of Britons opposed U.S. actions in Iraq, while 72 percent said the U.S. military presence in the Middle East provokes more conflict than it prevents. Just 14 percent of Britons said the United States was a "stabilizing force" in the region.
2:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Katsav faces rape charge
"He was the first member of a right-wing political party to become Israeli president." But certainly not the first to be charged.
The eight allegations of assault aside, he shares with his American conservative brethren a love for wiretapping. Unlike our own wiretapping leaders, however, he may be indicted for it.
2:34 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Plame trial returns... big
Impeachable? Maybe it really is true that Negroponte was moved to deputy SOS so that Condi could become VP.
Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald used his opening statement in the CIA leak trial Tuesday to allege that Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff lied and destroyed a note showing Cheney's early involvement.
Fitzgerald said Cheney told his chief of staff, “Scooter” Libby, in 2003 that Wilson’s wife worked for the CIA and Libby spread that information to reporters. When that information got out, it triggered a federal investigation.
“But when the FBI and grand jury asked about what the defendant did,” Fitzgerald said, “he made up a story.”
Fitzgerald alleged that Libby in September 2003 “destroyed” a Cheney note just before Libby's first FBI interview when he said he learned about Wilson from reporters, not the vice president.
I. Lewis Libby is charged with perjury and obstruction. He told investigators he was surprised to learn Wilson’s wife’s identity from NBC News reporter Tim Russert.
But Fitzgerald told jurors that was clearly a lie because Libby had already been discussing the matter inside and outside of the White House. “You can’t learn something on Thursday that you’re giving out on Monday,” Fitzgerald said. [...]
Fitzgerald believes Libby feared political embarrassment and worried he might lose his job for discussing classified information with reporters. President Bush originally threatened to fire anyone who disclosed such information so, Fitzgerald says Libby had a reason to lie.
Fitzgerald told jurors Tuesday that the trial isn’t about the war but that the case will be set against the backdrop of the first months of the invasion. He is expected to tell jurors that the White House was preoccupied with discrediting Wilson’s criticisms, so it’s unlikely Libby forgot that effort.
1:34 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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It finally happens
A day before his sixth state of the Union, George W. Bush's approval rating falls into the twenties. Worst since Nixon.
3:02 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, January 22, 2007
Polling
More on this at another time, but the most significant survey result I have seen over the last weeks is that Clinton leads Obama 2-1 among African Americans.
9:53 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Janklow probation at an end
The former South Dakota congressman and governor, repeatedly rewarded by home state voters for the sexual assault of an underage Native American girl and his prosecutions of the American Indian Movement, has paid his debt to society after a three year slap on the wrist probation term for manslaughter.
His record, reports the Minneapolis Star Tribune, is now clean. Had his own brand of justice been applied to him, he might have been in line for the adult version of this, but no matter. He'll be off to hell in a few years regardless.
4:39 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The race for cash
Geffen and Soros choose Obama over Clinton.
1:21 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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YIKES
Steve Clemons takes on Bill Richardson. It isn't pretty.
1:18 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Edwards-Obama-Clinton vs McCain-Giuliani
Political Wire observes that Edwards is the only Democratic candidate in the Newsweek poll who beats both Giuliani and McCain. Here are the numbers:
Edwards 48%, McCain 43%
Edwards 48%, Giuliani 45%
Clinton 48%, McCain 47%
Giuliani 48%, Clinton 47%
Obama 46%, McCain 44%
Giuliani 47%, Obama 45%
1:03 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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