JUSIPER

Thursday, November 30, 2006

 
A 55 point shift



Incoming committee chairs are way less conservative than the old ones. And they are to the left of their fellow members of Congress as well.
 
"Noxious, risible, fetid thinking"



Josh Marshall on the Washington press corps.
 
Bad move



JUSIPER loves Deval Patrick. But it sure sounds like he's on the road to becoming a Jimmy Carter-type executive. Just like the former president, he enjoys two thirds majorities in both houses...and is about to antagonize them before the first day of his governorship. It's not that that the House and Senate don't need antagonizing. But there are smart ways to provide a new direction and dumb ones.

Two of his three transition-team co-chairs have no experience working for the state, and Gloria Larson’s experience, as secretary of economic affairs, dates back to the Weld days.

The rest of the transition committee is also seen by some as lacking experienced insiders, with the notable exception of former state senator Patricia McGovern. And Patrick’s newly announced chief of staff, Joan Wallace-Benjamin, has never held a government job.

To put it one way, Patrick is getting advice from a lot of people who are used to asking the state for things, and not a lot of people accustomed to handling those many competing needs.

As Scot Lehigh put it in a Globe column last week, “You need someone in a key position who knows how both the State House and the press operate. . . . so far, I don’t see that person.”

Patrick released a list of 120 transition-team working-group members last week, which did little to assuage such concerns. Of the 31 working-group chairs, only a few have served in the State House.

 
50 v Oprah... again



Wow:

In this time where news of racial slurs and name-calling surely don't dominate the headlines, 50 Cent puts his two cents in with a little good old fashioned Oprah bashing. NY Post reports on the January issue of Elle in which the rapper calls the richest women in show business "an Oreo":

"[Oprah] started out with black women's views but has been catering to middle-aged white American women for so long that she's become one herself. I think the idea of being publicly noted that she's a billionaire makes [black women] interested in seeing her views. But it's even more exciting to the demographic of white American women she's been aiming at to see that she has the exact same views that they have."

 
Kramer lines Jerry and Larry's pockets



Wow.

Sales of season seven of "Seinfeld" are up 75% over season six and 90% over season five -- after one week of sales, according to website DVD Empire. Sales are up despite Jesse Jackson calling for a boycott.
 
The phrase that pays



Won't be hard to find:

It didn't take long after Madonna left Malawi for the paparazzi to show up in Banda's village, dragging heavy cameras with them -- boxes with long tubes sticking out of them that looked like gun barrels. Their assistants followed closely behind, dragging even bigger boxes with lamps mounted on top.

One man brought along a shiny silver box that emitted music -- loud, shrill and hectic music. The foreigner said the song was "Like a Virgin," sung by the new mother of Banda's son. He also said that he worked for a company called ABC and that he had come from a country that was a many days' journey away. The man asked Banda what he thought about the music, but Banda wasn't sure. "It sounded the way someone sounds when they're dying," says Banda. "I had no idea who or what Madonna was."

 
Roberts leaving Intel?



If he left the Senate altogether, he would avoid impeachment. But I'm guessing such proceedings would be too uncivil for the likes of Lieberman. So he'll probably be safe, obstructing the work of some other committee in the 110th Congress.
 
The #1 DVD in Teheran



And it's not Veggie Muhammad Tales.
 
The Vatican's culture of denial



Ouch. From one of Sully's readers:

Surely the combination of a fairly (at least comparatively) flaming Pope with the harsh homophobic rhetoric issued over his signature must be not just saddening, but enraging. At least women don’t have to contend with blatant self-contradiction from Rome—Rome doesn’t prop up women in positions of power from which they oppress women, while it seems that many members of the Vatican bureaucracy spend their days condemning homosexuals before heading out to enjoy the delights of the “homosexual culture” of the city. So, yes, the fabulous pageantry is amusing, and pretty transparent to anyone with a modicum of gay-dar, but it dresses up a vicious and deadly culture of denial in the hierarchical Church. Didn’t Jesus have something to say about those who impose impossible burdens on others but don't lift a finger to help?
 
Romney: For gays before he was against them



Ugh, from Bay Windows via Sully via TPM:

It’s one thing to be a homophobe out of ignorance. It’s another to be a homophobe for political gain. In 2006, the former is inexcusable while the latter is despicable.

Anyone thinking of supporting Romney’s bid for president because of his socially conservative views on gay people should know a few things about the governor. When Romney ran against Ted Kennedy for the Senate in 1994, he wrote a letter to the Mass Log Cabin Club in which he pledged: “[A]s we seek to establish full equality for America’s gay and lesbian citizens, I will provide more effective leadership than my opponent.” During the same campaign, when he was accused of having once described gay people as “perverse” during a religious meeting of Mormons, Romney’s campaign issued a forceful statement decrying the accusation as false and reiterating that Romney respected “all people regardless of their race, creed, or sexual orientation.”

During his 2001 run for governor, his campaign distributed bright pink flyers at the June Pride parade declaring “Mitt and Kerry wish you a great Pride weekend!” During his inaugural speech, he said it was important to defend civil rights “regardless of gender, sexual orientation, or race.” He appointed eight openly gay and lesbian people to high profile positions in his administration. And before he decided to run for president — that is to say, before he needed to establish some strong anti-gay bonafides — Romney doubled the budget line item for the Governor’s Commission on Gay and Lesbian Youth. This would be the same commission, mind you, that Romney tried to disband in highly public fashion last May.

Is Mitt Romney a homophobe? I have no idea. It’s hard to say that he isn’t when he appears on a stage, as he did this past Sunday, with Roberto Miranda, who once compared the marriages of same-sex couples with the terrorist attacks of September 11. With Romney just several feet away from him, Miranda angrily warned the crowd that gay activists were “aggressive, invasive, politically sophisticated and powerful” and that they sought to impose the “homosexual agenda in our schools, our workplaces, the social service sector and eventually our homes and even our churches.”

Ultimately, it doesn’t matter whether Romney is a bigot. Because he’s an opportunist who’s more than happy to take advantage of the bigotry of others. It’s been obvious for quite some time now that he’s been using the marriage equality side for political gain. But everyone in the VoteOnMarriage.org coalition should know that he’s using them, too.

 
Bucking the CW



Chuck Todd on why Hillary is not the likely nominee.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006

 
Psychotic Bush voters



Does this explain the South, too? Via Kos, news of a not-quite-startling finding:

A collective “I told you so” will ripple through the world of Bush-bashers once news of Christopher Lohse’s study gets out.

Lohse, a social work master’s student at Southern Connecticut State University, says he has proven what many progressives have probably suspected for years: a direct link between mental illness and support for President Bush.

Lohse says his study is no joke. The thesis draws on a survey of 69 psychiatric outpatients in three Connecticut locations during the 2004 presidential election. Lohse’s study, backed by SCSU Psychology professor Jaak Rakfeldt and statistician Misty Ginacola, found a correlation between the severity of a person’s psychosis and their preferences for president: The more psychotic the voter, the more likely they were to vote for Bush.

But before you go thinking all your conservative friends are psychotic, listen to Lohse’s explanation.

“Our study shows that psychotic patients prefer an authoritative leader,” Lohse says. “If your world is very mixed up, there’s something very comforting about someone telling you, ‘This is how it’s going to be.’”

The study was an advocacy project of sorts, designed to register mentally ill voters and encourage them to go to the polls, Lohse explains. The Bush trend was revealed later on.[...]

Lohse says the trend isn’t unique to Bush: A 1977 study by Frumkin & Ibrahim found psychiatric patients preferred Nixon over McGovern in the 1972 election.


The study also found that Kerry voters were far more knowledgeable than Bush voters, buttressing similar claims in other recent studies.
 
Carter for Gore



Interesting:

Jimmy Carter, on Hardball last night, about Al Gore: "I encouraged him so much in 2004 to run that he finally said, 'Mr. President, please do not bother me about this any more. My family and I have decided I'm not going to run.' He almost got angry with me. But I don't have that much doubt, first of all, that Al Gore was elected president by votes in Florida and throughout the nation in the year 2000. And I think, had he run in the year 2004 he would have won. And if I had to choose now a candidate out of all the ones that exist, at this point, at least, Al Gore would still be my preference."
 
What makes a Muslim radical?



It turns out, says Gallup, pretty much the same things that make a Muslim moderate.
 
Will the Cuban embargo end?



Maybe. There may be a bipartisan majority in the House, but the calculations of presidential contenders in the Senate. And of course, on the White House.

Says Foreign Policy:

But word is floating around Capitol Hill that, when the Democrats take charge in January, the Cuban embargo may be on the chopping block. Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), the incoming chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has said the embargo is a "total failure." In the House, Charlie Rangel (D-NY), who is set to become chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, has in the past sponsored legislation to end the embargo.

Any change in Cuba policy, of course, would require the signature of President Bush. That's hardly a guarantee. But embargo foes must be taking comfort in the fact that Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is stepping down in January. That may give his brother a little more wiggle room, should he desire it.

 
The Pope's circle loves The Nativity Story



To honor them, 16 year old star Kiesha Castle-Hughes has made up her mind: she's gonna keep her baby. Oooh, she's gonna keep her baby.
 
Note to the next conclave



Turns out speaking a lot of languages doesn't necessarily win you friends.
 
Transcript



Via the Washington Post:

At a recent White House reception for freshman members of Congress, Virginia's newest senator tried to avoid President Bush. Democrat James Webb declined to stand in a presidential receiving line or to have his picture taken with the man he had often criticized on the stump this fall. But it wasn't long before Bush found him.

"How's your boy?" Bush asked, referring to Webb's son, a Marine serving in Iraq.

"I'd like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President," Webb responded, echoing a campaign theme.

"That's not what I asked you," Bush said. "How's your boy?"

"That's between me and my boy, Mr. President," Webb said coldly, ending the conversation on the State Floor of the East Wing of the White House.


More:

"I'm not particularly interested in having a picture of me and George W. Bush on my wall," Webb said in an interview yesterday in which he confirmed the exchange between him and Bush. "No offense to the institution of the presidency, and I'm certainly looking forward to working with him and his administration. [But] leaders do some symbolic things to try to convey who they are and what the message is."

In the days after the election, Webb's Democratic colleagues on Capitol Hill went out of their way to make nice with Bush and be seen by his side. House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sat down for a lunch and photo opportunity with Bush, as did Democratic leaders in the Senate.

Not Webb, who said he tried to avoid a confrontation with Bush at the White House reception but did not shy away from one when the president approached.

 
Guess who the Secret Service might be paying a visit to



The new senator from Virginia.

At a private reception held at the White House with newly elected lawmakers shortly after the election, Bush asked Webb how his son, a Marine lance corporal serving in Iraq, was doing.
Webb responded that he really wanted to see his son brought back home, said a person who heard about the exchange from Webb.

“I didn’t ask you that, I asked how he’s doing,” Bush retorted, according to the source.

Webb confessed that he was so angered by this that he was tempted to slug the commander-in-chief, reported the source, but of course didn’t. It’s safe to say, however, that Bush and Webb won’t be taking any overseas trips together anytime soon.

 
Stillborn



You know things are going badly when clerks don't even know their store sells the Zune. Yet another Microsoft disaster.
 
Pope: EU should accept Turkey



But no one is fooled:

In Ankara, residents expressed doubts about the pope’s sincerity. “It’s not support, it’s a lie,” said Hakan Ozgunaydin, a 29-year-old co-owner of a shoe shop in downtown Ankara. “I would expect him to say, ‘those bloody Turks,’ when he leaves this country.”

Merve Celikkol, a 21-year-old physics student, was just as blunt, calling the pope a hypocrite: “How is it possible that he changed so much?”


And their cynicism was confirmed within hours:

Because Benedict did not announce his new position himself on Tuesday, the shift appeared to some degree to be a concession won by Mr. Erdogan — a deft act of diplomacy by the pope that critics said his speech two months ago lacked.

Although Mr. Erdogan’s government is rooted in moderate political Islam, he had said until Monday that he would not be able to meet the pope under pressure from his conservative constituency. As the leader of the only Muslim country in NATO, he left immediately afterward to attend a meeting of the Western military alliance in Latvia.

Hours later, the pope’s spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, released a brief statement repeating that the Vatican has “neither the power nor the specific political task” of getting Turkey admitted to the European Union.

But Father Lombardi said the Vatican “views positively and encourages the road of dialogue and of moving toward integration of Turkey in Europe on the basis of common values and principles.”

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

 
Should Microsoft pay a global warming tax?



A persuasive anecdote.
 
Slamming the Sierra Club



No one hates the left more than leftists. But Kos is 100% right.
 
Hmm...



Dan Conley's explanation as to why Tom Vilsack may run as Hillary's stalking horse: she may not have enough cash to buy Iowa. And it would be a parallel to 1992, when Tom Harkin's presence in the race made the caucuses irrelevant.

But... somehow I don't think Vilsack will be able to get 80% of the caucus vote like Harkin did. And if he doesn't, whoever comes in second (or first) will be riding an enormous amount of momentum into Nevada and New Hampshire. Secondly, the argument sells Hillary short. She has tremendous appeal to a lot of Democrats, as does her husband; she doesn't need to buy the state to win it.

Regardless, she'll have more cash than any other candidate. She'll be able to buy just about any operative she wants.

If the financial playing field really turns out to be level, she ought to be bounced out of the primaries for spending $30 million on a Senate race she would have won in a walk anyway. What a waste.
 
"You owe it to yourself to own this landmark album"



Red Kelly, the man behind the internet's best written music blogs, pays tribute to the Queen.
Monday, November 27, 2006

 
Should Dems stop doing cleanup?



Brad DeLong's very important economic soliloquy.

The most interesting part of this, for me, is the last paragraph. Matthew Yglesias is serving notice that, at least as far as he is concerned, Rubinomics is dead. Rubin and us spearcarriers moved heaven and earth to restore fiscal balance to the American government in order to raise the rate of economic growth. But whatwe turned out to have done, in the end, was to enable George W. Bush's right-wing class war: his push for greater after-tax income inequality.

We will try to argue for fiscal prudence and stability in the councils of the Democratic Party. But I fear this is a bellwether--that we will lose, because the choice will be presented as between (i) left-wing things that are good for the nation, and (ii) centrist things that simply enable another round of right-wing class war by the rich and their minions a decade hence.


DeLong, incidentally, also provides a long, meandering take on the the dollar and treasury yields that kind of goes nowhere. But, like Martin Feldstein, he is on record as a dollar bear. The debate isn't so much as to whether the dollar needs to depreciate by a third but whether it will happen suddenly or gradually.
 
Bush's industrial policy--finally!



He is rescuing the steel industry! Unfortunately, he's doing it inadvertently:

According to Kotowicz's research, 10 out of 18 U.S. industrial companies he follows generated 40 percent or more of their income from foreign regions last year, compared with only one company in 1997.

In addition to a favorable exchange rate for foreign earnings, a stronger euro and yen reflect improving European and Japanese economies, which means stronger demand for elevators, construction equipment, aircraft engines, air conditioners and the like. The same may hold true for auto, chemical and steel makers, industry-watchers said. [...]

Chemical majors Dow, DuPont and Celanese generate about 30 to 40 percent of their revenue from Europe and would stand to benefit the most if a weak dollar trend were to continue, he added.

The weaker dollar is ``not good for the country but great for steel companies,'' said Chuck Bradford, metals analyst at Soleil Securities. ``Most of the problem that steel companies had in the 1990s was because of the strong dollar that made U.S. companies less competitive,'' he said.


On the other hand, their extra dollars will be worth a lot less:

``It (the falling dollar) means corporate earnings are worth less -- they buy less in terms of other currencies,'' said Peter Schiff, president at investment brokerage Euro Pacific Capital Inc. ``Some U.S. companies involved in exports might be able to offset that by earning more dollars, but they are just earning more dollars of diminished value.''

If the weakness in the dollar continues, it would eventually cause concern about the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat inflation, some analysts warned.

``Glass half full on the US dollar: it will boost U.S. large cap, multinational earnings,'' said Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein, in a note to clients. ``Glass half empty on the US dollar: the Fed will find it increasingly difficult to ease if the dollar does continue to weaken.''


That's the $64,000 question: will a weak dollar force the Fed to raise interest rates just as the economy is softening, sending the country into a serious recession? We don't know yet, but the answer to that question is likely to determine the political landscape come 2008, and possibly later.
 
CO in play for 08 Senate?



The Denver Post reports that Wayne Allard may be stepping down. The Southwestern state with the bluest trend since 2004 has been Colorado. Democrats have a real shot at this one with the right candidate.

The buzz in U.S. Senate circles is that Wayne Allard might honor his pledge to serve just two terms and retire to that new home he and his wife, Joan, are building in Jackson County.

It's not just the meager campaign coffer ($119,000) that has sparked the speculation. It's the silver hair.

Allard is in the minority in Congress for the first time since he was elected in 1997 and word is he isn't too keen on the situation. The list of Republicans who might run in 2008 if Allard does not includes U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo, former Reps. Scott McInnis and Bob Schaffer, and outgoing Gov. Bill Owens.

Regardless of the GOP ticket, Rep. Mark Udall plans to run and will make a formal announcement sometime next year. His campaign coffers now hold $1.2 million.

Insiders say Allard usually keeps his hair a dark hue but lately they've noticed there's a strong hint of the white stuff. Or, as one observer in Washington noted last week: "His hair has been gray for awhile now. That's pretty unusual for Allard, especially leading up to an election."

 
"Democrats surge in western NC"



True. But it helped that Democrats had no national leader when that surge occurred. And it's very hard to see how Heath Shuler can compete effectively in 2008 if Hillary Clinton is the party's standard bearer. And, sadly, the same may be true if Obama is the nominee.
 
"Dreamgirls will make Jennifer Hudson a superstar"



Hooray!

Last night I had the opportunity to see one of the first screenings of Dreamgirls, the Bill Condon film adaptation of the Broadway musical, and Condon has pulled off an inspiring and transcendent new classic. The musical production comes alive in its cinematic form so fluidly that at times you almost forget you're not watching a live production. I can't remember the last time I saw an audience provide such physical and vocal responses to onscreen performances. It's a great feeling to come to a film with high expectations and have them exceeded as that's so often not the case.

You might think that with star power like Beyoncé, Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, and Danny Glover that the jockeying for the spotlight would be intense, but there is really no competition here. This is Jennifer Hudson's movie and she is astonishing.

Dreamgirls will make Jennifer Hudson a superstar. Her vocal performances are epic. No less than four times did the audience erupt into spontaneous ovations as she finished her numbers.

The pivotal scene on which the plot of the movie spins, when Effie is told that she's been forced out of the Dreamettes, is delivered in a dazzling musical one-two punch. As the number "It's All Over," a tour-de-force in its deft boxing match-like staging between Curtis Taylor, Jr. (Foxx), Deena Jones (Beyoncé Knowles), Lorrell Robinson (Anika Noni Rose), and Effie (Hudson) winds up we are left with Effie realizing, defiantly, that she's having her dream snatched from her. The movie takes a beautifully-choreographed deep breath before Hudson slides into her solitary and powerful rendition of "And I'm Telling You". This is the moment in the film everyone will be talking about. Hudson's chill-inducing performance made every hair on my scalp stand on end.


The Daily Mail agrees :

About halfway through the movie musical Dreamgirls, an unknown young actress (but not for long!) called Jennifer Hudson - who plays Effie White, the weight-challenged lead singer of a Sixties girl trio from Detroit called the Dreams - breaks down when she's replaced by the sexier Deena Jones (Beyonce Knowles). [...]

Anyway, it's Ms Hudson who is front and centre in this motion picture. She's feisty and noble.

She also has the most incredible singing voice -and she knows how to make it soar and (a rare thing, this) how to make Effie's character come alive.

At the first preview in New York, the audience - annoyingly - applauded her every number. And they went wild during And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going.


And her Oscar buzz is stronger than one might expect, according to the Los Angeles Times' Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil:

Beyonce comes close, but — naaaaaaaaaw — nothing tops Hudson. She not only owns this movie, she rides it like a rocket to instant superstardom. For months and months "Dreamgirls" fans have been beset with worry, wondering: Can Jennifer really nail "And I Am Telling You"? If she doesn't, the whole show falls apart.

The result is so good that DreamWorks/Paramount now faces a strange problem: Should they bump Hudson up to the lead actress race or keep her in supporting? Frankly, this movie belongs to her. She should be in lead, but let's be realistic. If she goes up against Helen Mirren at the Oscars, she'll get clobbered. However, if only she'll just stay put in supporting, we can declare that race won, wrapped up and ready for the history books. No other divas need apply.

DreamWorks/Paramount has officially decided to keep Hudson in supporting, as it originally reported here at GoldDerby, but soon the Hollywood Foreign Press Association could mess up everything. What if they push her into lead? It could really happen. Members can be very bull-headed about things like that. That race on the comedy/musical side is already pretty tight with Annette Bening ("Running with Scissors"), Mery Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), Renee Zellweger ("Miss Potter"), Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), Cameron Diaz ("The Holiday") and Dakota Fanning ("Charlotte's Web"). Who's going to get bumped out? Beyonce maybe? To be brutally honest, she's one of the weakest candidates. If the Globes fail to nominate her, the ticked-off diva might not show up at the ceremony, even if she's asked to sing "Listen" as a best-song nominee. That could be catastrophic to the celeb-obsessed Globes.

And what about poor Hudson? If she's pushed into lead, she's going to have to go up against Meryl as the magnificent bitch of "Prada." Come on! Does anyone really have a prayer of beating the devil in that smackdown?

Maybe Hudson does. Just maybe. She's such a breakout star of this awards season that it's possible she could prevail, but, if she did, and did so nominated opposite Beyonce, it would be a repeat of the embarrassment that occurred at the Tonys in 1982. That's where the supporting star who played Hudson's role (Jennifer Holliday) had the nerve to beat Beyonce's counterpart (Sheryl Lee Ralph) for best actress in a musical.


JHud on Oprah here.
 
Harper leads like Bush



Dissent in the ranks:

Rank-and-file Conservative MPs have no say in fashioning the centrepiece policies of the Harper government, says a former Tory caucus member who was booted from party ranks last month.

Garth Turner also says that, while MPs are being muzzled, he believes there is a pipeline between Prime Minister Stephen Harper's office and some activists on the religious right — or as he calls them, “the righteous right.”

The maverick Toronto-area MP, who now sits as an independent, says the Conservative environmental plan, the budget, tax cuts, the income trust decision and military policy in Afghanistan were all presented to the caucus as done deals, not as subjects for debate. [...]

While MPs may not get much say in policy, Mr. Turner suspects that some in the religious right have unusual influence in the government.

“I believe there is a pipeline from a certain constituency, whatever you want to call it, righteous right, I believe there is a pipeline into the Prime Minister's Office and into the party.”

Earlier this year, Mr. Turner took part in a TV debate with Charles McVety, an evangelical leader who has been a driving force in the fight against same-sex marriage.

The MP says there was a telling moment in that debate when Mr. McVety looked at him and said: “You know what? I can pick up the phone and call Mr. Harper and I can get him in two minutes. It's going to take you a month.”

Mr. Turner paused.

“I think he's right.”

 
GOP: The syphilis party



While it's true that a correlation with GDP would fit the story just as well, who knows? Maybe Republican leaders' lack of interest in governance really does cause an increase in STD's.
 
First transgendered character on a soap



"I say BRAVO, you purveyors of drama in the daylight hours, you dealers of detergent, you temptresses of teenagers to dally abed with affected coughs and clammy palms á la Ferris Bueller..."
 
Margaret Spellings loses to Squiggy



I mean Lenny. Via Crooks and Liars.
 
The brilliant Benedict



Those who just thought he had insulted Islam out of personal dislike plus the usual desire to reverse Vatican II were dead wrong. Turns out it was all part of a nefarious plot to destroy the schismatic Orthodox! His clever scheme has succeeded brilliantly; now Bartholomew's name is mud too--giving the Orthodox a grudge to remember for another eight hundred years!

Although Vatican-Muslim relations have dominated the headlines about it, the trip was originally scheduled to help repair a centuries-old divide between the Vatican and Orthodox Christian churches. The pope will have two meetings with the Orthodox Patriarch Bartholomew I, who is based in Istanbul and has waged his own religious battles with the Turkish government.

Many of the protesters at the rally Sunday in Istanbul were just as distressed by the pope's planned meeting with the Orthodox patriarch as they were by what they see as his attitude toward Muslims.

"We are here to prevent the visit of the pope," said Gulnihal Yildirim, 38, who wore a head scarf and was accompanied by her two daughters, ages 6 and 11, each sporting green headbands reading, "The pope should not come."

"He will be the guest of the state for one day and of the patriarch for three days," added Yildirim, who said she opposed the pope's efforts to enhance the status of the patriarch in this Muslim country.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

 
"If your hand causes you to sin, cut it off"



Here's the Buddhist version.
 
Paul Mooney



The last word on Michael Richards. And Greta too.
 
Who is Matt Welch?



One of the coolest assistant editors of a major daily. Today he suggests that John McCain is just as much of a baby boomer as Bill Clinton--only a more dangerous and hypocritical one.

Sifting through McCain's four bestselling books and nearly three decades of work on Capitol Hill, a distinct approach toward governance begins to emerge. And it's one that the electorate ought to be particularly worried about right now. McCain, it turns out, wants to restore your faith in the U.S. government by any means necessary, even if that requires thousands of more military deaths, national service for civilians and federal micromanaging of innumerable private transactions. He'll kick down the doors of boardroom and bedroom, mixing Democrats' nanny-state regulations with the GOP's red-meat paternalism in a dangerous brew of government activism. And he's trying to accomplish this, in part, for reasons of self-realization.

The first clue to McCain's philosophy lies in two seemingly irrelevant items of gossip: His father was a drunk, and his second wife battled addiction to pain pills. Neither would be worth mentioning except for the fact that McCain's books and speeches are shot through with the language and sentiment of 12-step recovery, especially Steps 1 (admitting the problem) and 2 (investing faith in a "Power greater than ourselves").

Like many alcoholics who haven't quite made it to Step 6 (becoming "entirely ready" to have these defects removed), McCain is disarmingly talented at admitting his narcissistic flaws. In his 2002 book "Worth the Fighting For," the senator is constantly confessing his problems of "selfishness," "immaturity," "ambition" and especially "temper," though he also makes clear that his outbreaks of anger can be justifiable and even laudable when channeled into "a cause greater than self-interest." [...]

The price of all this war-making, in money and manpower, would be staggering; it's hard to imagine without a draft (McCain has long been a fan of mandatory national service, at the least). But the costs to his political ambitions may even be greater. The nation is in no mood for the war we've got now, let alone a doubling-down on Iraq and ramped-up unilateralist tough talk in the Middle East. The trend lines of public opinion on these counts are not pointing in McCain's direction.

One of the many charming confessions in "Worth the Fighting For" is McCain's complaint that the man he replaced in the Senate — Republican icon Barry Goldwater — was "never as affectionate as I would have liked." Small wonder.

Goldwater, a man who seemed to emanate from Arizona's dust, was the paragon of limited government, believing to his core that the feds shouldn't tell you how to run a business or whom you can sleep with. McCain, on the other hand, is a third-generation D.C. insider who carpetbagged his way into office, believing to his core that "national pride will not survive the people's contempt for government." On Nov. 7, those conflicting worldviews collided when Arizonans voted on whether to outlaw gay marriage. McCain campaigned in favor of the ban, in the name of "preserving the sanctity" of heterosexual unions. His exhortations went down to surprising defeat. Not, one suspects, for the last time.


More, Matt, more!
 
Congressional oversigh of a different kind



The blogosphere makes its bid.
 
Who will do worse in the South?



Hillary or Obama?
 
"Homofobia é crime!"



Now it really will be, at least in the far more enlightened democracy that is today's Brazil:

Brazil's lower house of Congress has passed a bill making discrimination against homosexuals a crime punishable by at least a year in jail, the bill's sponsor said Friday.

The bill, passed Thursday, makes discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation a crime equal to discrimination on the basis of race, ethnicity, religion, gender and national origin — which have carried prison sentences since 1989, said Congresswoman Iara Bernardi.

The bill now goes before the Senate, which has not yet set a date to vote.

Betto de Jesus, director of the Sao Paulo-based Brazilian Association of Gays, Lesbians and Transgendered People, said the law would give homosexuals federal protection for the first time.

"We always wanted to have homophobia be considered a crime equal to racism," he said.

The bill makes denying a person employment, hotel rooms and car or property rentals because of their sexual orientation, as well as prohibiting displays of same-sex affection in public, punishable by up to five years in prison.

Any reference to sexual orientation deemed offensive could carry up to a three-year prison sentence and a fine.


In related news, a São Paulo province judge has issued the first decision giving gays adoption rights.

Brazil now takes second place only to Canada as the most progressive country in our hemisphere with respect to gay civil rights.
 
Lost treasure



And a source for potentially great comedy if your name is Fred Armisen.

Q: But even when you were somewhat obscure, so many musicians were citing you as an influence or even name-checking you in songs. Of all the musicians and rappers who have cited you as an influence, whose work do you appreciate most?
Prince.

Joni Mitchell: Prince attended one of my concerts in Minnesota. I remember seeing him sitting in the front row when he was very young. He must have been about 15. He was in an aisle seat and he had unusually big eyes. He watched the whole show with his collar up, looking side to side. You couldn’t miss him—he was a little Prince-ling. [Laughs.] Prince used to write me fan mail with all of the U’s and hearts that way that he writes. And the office took it as mail from the lunatic fringe and just tossed it! [Laughs.]

 
Postscript



Does ethics reform mean Democrats would have to get rid of Harry Reid if he were implicated in Abramoff, thus losing their Senate majority. Yes, but they might have to get rid of him anyway; and as we have written before, their majority is at risk regardless. Why not get out in front of an issue? Doing nothing could affect the party's shot at padded majorities come 2008 (crucial if we win the presidency, since we would likely lose seats in 2010).
 
Someone gets it



The blogosphere drips with hatred for Rahm Emanuel, much of it linked to his fight with Howard Dean over the fifty-state strategy (praised by, of all people, David Gergen in the interview referenced yesterday) and 2006 campaign cash.

The good news, however, is that he understands those Election Day exit polls, and that the mandate from voters was not exactly for Congress to do something about Iraq. Ultimately, most voters understand that war is an Executive Branch responsibility. They did want to send a message about the war, but in the end, the most Congress can do about a war is provide recommendations, particularly when it doesn't intend to wield the power of the purse as a weapon.

No, the top issue in exit polls was corruption. And it wasn't just about Foley-Hastert-Boehner but an overwhelming sense that the voices of voters were not being heard because something was terribly rotten in Washington. Democrats shouldn't fear corruption if they use their legislation to break Tom Delay's K-Street project. If they can stop a whole lot of campaign cash from coming to Republicans while delivering on cleaning up Washington, it's a win-win.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, newly elected chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, has sent colleagues a one-page memo emphasizing ''real lobbying and ethics reform'' as the key to his party's future electoral success.

Emanuel, architect of taking over the House as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman, in the memo cited eight extra seats won by Democrats in Republican districts because of scandals. That included the defeat of Representatives John Sweeney (N.Y.); Richard Pombo (Calif.); Curt Weldon (Pa.); Don Sherwood (Pa.), and Charles Taylor (N.C.), plus Republicans in seats formerly held by Representatives Tom DeLay (Texas); Mark Foley (Fla.), and Bob Ney (Ohio). A ninth scandal-blemished Republican targeted by Emanuel, Rep. John Doolittle of California, escaped with a four-point victory.

Emanuel intends to push reforms restricting earmarks, gifts and travel. ''Failure to deliver on this promise,'' said his memo, ''would be devastating to our standing with the public and certainly jeopardize some of our marginal seats.''

 
Novak on Sunday



Novakula to many, but still one of the best sources for GOP news in DC. Today we reference three of its four segments.

House Speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi, on the heels of being rejected in her choice of majority leader, is being urged by prominent Democrats to avoid further embarrassment and not name Rep. Alcee Hastings as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Pelosi has made clear that she does not want to pick Rep. Jane Harman, the committee's ranking Democrat but an adversary of Pelosi in California politics. As speaker, Pelosi has complete power to name a chairman. But her advisers tell her that Republicans will have a field day if she selects Hastings, who was impeached by Congress as a federal judge on bribery charges. The committee's third-ranking Democrat, the low-profile Rep. Silvestre Reyes of Texas, would be a compromise.

A footnote: Senior CIA officials consider Harman a prima donna and say they dread the thought of dealing with her as chairman. They would much prefer Hastings, finding him consistently cooperative.

 
The beginning of the end for McCain



He has decided to enter the Iowa caucuses. Granted, it would be difficult for a serious presidential contender to win the nomination without Iowa (exception: 1992, but Tom Harkin was in the race--Vilsack may complicated matters in very interesting ways for Dems...unless no one votes for him). But Iowa is a caucus state. And it is very hard to see why Republican activists would vote for an alleged maverick when there are more conservative options available.

Yes, Bob Dole won there twice, but he was an Establishment conservative, a Senate majority leader, and, most importantly, from a farm state. And let's not forget that both times Dole won, someone absolutely nutty came in second: Pat Buchanan in 1996 with 23%, and Pat Robertson in 1988 with 25%.

In other words, Sam Brownback or Mike Huckabee may have quite as much of a chance at winning Iowa as Rudy "two gay men and a Shi Tzu" Giuliani and the humorless 2008 version of John McCain.

Despite their lack of interest in facts and science, evangelical primary voters aren't necessarily dumb politically. They are very likely to see through John McCain's newfound love for Bob Jones and Jerry Falwell. It would be extraordinary indeed if he lost the nomination in his first outing. As they say in Germany, Schadenfreude ist die schönste Freude (denn sie kommt von Herzen).
Saturday, November 25, 2006

 
"I really can't overemphasize how smartly Sadr is playing this"



Me either.
 
Is the fix in?



If California, Florida and Michigan move up their primaries, Hillary wins. On the other hand, if Vilsack runs and CA, FL and MI come right after New Hampshire, Nevada and New Hampshire become more important. Whoever comes in second (or beats her) will be the anti-Hillary once it becomes a two person race.

The first primary states ought to all be small to give less wealthy and/or corrupt candidates a chance to prove their electoral appeal. Otherwise, big money wiill win it every time. That may be good for Hillary Clinton and John McCain, but it's bad for America.
 
Bush checks out of Iraq



Josh Marshall's thoughtful take.
 
A cleansing election



Gergen and Hart deliver the best election postmortem yet.
 
Benedict goes to Turkey



Haunted by the great ones whose legacy he and his predecessor destroyed.
 
As I have said many times



History will judge the Bush Administration far more on its facilitation of China's imperial rise than its success against terrorism.

Chickens may be coming home to roost sooner than expected. Will Americans will know how badly Republican fiscal and trade policies weakened America as early as next year?

Another issue dogging the dollar is concern that China and other countries that hold trillions of dollars' worth of U.S. securities may increasingly seek to trim those assets in favor of non-dollar-denominated securities.

"The Chinese have been making noises in recent weeks about diversifying their holdings of foreign reserves," Kasriel noted. A People's Bank of China senior official repeated that theme in comments circulated Friday.

The momentum of a falling dollar could feed on itself because each decline reduces the value of foreigners' remaining U.S. assets.

The risk of a sell-off of U.S. securities by China has been a persistent concern for Wall Street in recent years, but it may be taking on more urgency now that the Democratic Party is about to regain control of Congress, analysts said. Some Democratic leaders are pushing for trade sanctions against China to shrink that country's massive trade surplus with the U.S.

China, in turn, could retaliate by dumping dollar-denominated assets, experts note.

A major threat to the U.S. economy from a tumbling dollar would be higher inflation, because a weaker currency could drive up prices of the imported goods that consumers relish.

At a minimum, Americans' purchasing power abroad would sink. "It costs you more to travel to Europe today than it did yesterday, and it costs you more to buy French wine or Burberry coats," Wesbury said.

 
"This looks like the beginning of a sustained move"