JUSIPER
Friday, March 31, 2006
Best awards show on television
If you missed this year's TV Land Awards, catch a repeat at midnight Eastern.
3:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Conspiracy
Breaking:
A former top aide to Rep. Tom DeLay pleaded guilty Friday to conspiracy and promised to cooperate with the government's investigation of lobbying fraud.
Tony Rudy, DeLay's former deputy chief of staff, was told by a U.S. District judge that he could receive up to five years in prison but the sentence could be much less depending on his cooperation with prosecutors in the case, which earlier brought a guilty plea from lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Rudy is the second former aide to DeLay to plead guilty in the scandal.
As part of the deal for Rudy to plead guilty to the single felony conspiracy count, prosecutors agreed not pursue other possible charges against him or his wife.
Rudy, 39, stood with his head slightly bowed and his hands clasped in front of him as the judge detailed how he took free trips, tickets, meals and golf games from Abramoff while working for DeLay, who was then House Majority Leader.
1:16 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Rasmussen: Bush at lowest ever
As we have written before, the polling outfit's daily tracking poll is by far the most favorable to Bush.
Forty percent (40%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. That matches the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. The slight increase in Approval seen last weekend was clearly nothing more than statistical noise.
Much more interesting, however, is this:
While people are not happy with the President, 55% say they are better off today than they were four years ago.
Bush is being held up by the relative strength of the economy, particularly among the forty or so percent of the nation in the investor class. Any change in the market or in employment conditions will sink him and his party.
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Bendixen's poll of legal immigrants
Broder:
It was not until this month that the first substantial poll of immigrants was taken. Its findings give the lie to one of the most frequent claims from those who want to "crack down" on illegal immigration: the assertion that undocumented workers are resented by those who have come to this country legally. [...]
Bendixen asked two key questions. By a margin of 81 percent to 11 percent, the legal immigrants said they think the illegals are taking jobs that legal residents and citizens do not want to do, rather than taking jobs away from them.
And 73 percent of them said the illegals help the economy by providing low-cost labor, while only 17 percent said they hurt the economy by driving down wages -- a favorite contention of those who want to restrict immigration. [...]
But Bendixen said the interviews found that "the resentment isn't there." He said that one woman, an accountant, who gained her citizenship by following the rules, explained, "I came first-class. The illegals are coming coach -- they do jobs I didn't have to do, and they live outside the law."
"She didn't feel that she was in competition with them," Bendixen said. "She felt sympathy for them."
That mind-set explains the legal immigrants' hostility to the main provisions of the House bill -- and also the emotion that pulled so many thousands of immigrants into the streets for demonstrations during the past week.
Majorities of about 70 percent or more oppose all these steps: arresting illegal immigrants and charging them with a felony; deporting all illegal immigrants; imposing stiff penalties on employers who hire illegals or groups that help them; or building a wall between the United States and Mexico to discourage illegal immigration.
On the other hand, two-thirds of the legal immigrants favor President Bush's proposal to provide work permits for temporary employment, with a proviso that the recipient return to his or her home country. And even more -- eight out of 10 -- favor the kind of legislation that came out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which would open a path to eventual citizenship for illegals who remain in this country for an extended period, learn English, pay fines and have no criminal record. [...]
Disturbingly, the survey found that two-thirds of the legal immigrants believe that anti-immigrant sentiment is growing in the United States, and more than half said it has affected them and their families personally. Racism against Latino and Asian immigrants is blamed by more than six out of 10 for fueling this development.
The poll also found that approval for Democrats on immigration issues was only 38%. For Bush that number was 32%, and for the Republican Party, 22%. But the Democrats' numbers will increase alongside the right's virulence. For congressional Republicans, 22% looks like a ceiling.
12:26 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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E.J. Dionne on McCain
The dangers of selling out:
If McCain spends the next two years obviously positioning himself to win Republican primary votes, he will start to look like just another politician. Once lost, a maverick's image is hard to earn back.
Moreover, McCain is winning a hearing from previously reluctant Republicans as the one person who might save the party if Bush's popularity continues to sink. But if McCain gets too close to Bush in the next two years, he will no longer have his independence as a selling point. And if Bush should make a comeback, a lot of Republicans flirting with McCain now out of necessity will happily abandon him for someone more to their liking.
11:00 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Hot Scalia pix!
The Boston Herald gets an exclusive.
Actually, the most interesting thing about Scalia's use of "Vaffanculo" is that it refers to a type of activity that Scalia does not deem worthy of constitutional protection.
10:50 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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House refuses to investigate Abramoff scandal
On a party line vote. Oh just think about the ads this October.
Less than 24 hours after disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff was sentenced to 70 months in prison for fraud committed in connection with the purchase of a casino cruise line in Florida, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) offered a privileged resolution today calling for an immediate investigation into Abramoff's ties to members of Congress and staffers.
In seeking support for the resolution, Pelosi cites Republicans' decision to move Rep. Joel Hefley (R-Colo.) out as chairman of the House Committee on Standards of Official Conduct (as the Ethics Committee is formally known), the rule changes (later rescinded) on procedures governing the committee's handling of complaints and the revelations concerning Abramoff's relationships with several members of Congress.
The resolution was set aside by a vote of 216-193 -- largely along party lines (the Republican majority voted to table Pelosi's proposal). Six Republicans voted with the Democrats: Reps. Jim Gerlach (Pa.), Todd Platts (Pa.), Mark Green (Wisc.), Mark Souder (Ind.), Jim Leach (Iowa) and Chris Shays (Conn.). Gerlach and Shays face tough reelection fights this year, while Green is running for governor in Wisconsin.
Thanks GOP! We know you wouldn't have run a proper investigation anyway; now we have you on record opposing one.
10:42 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Rafi Eitan
Like any smart politician, the head of the Pensioners is going to milk his coalition-making moment for all it's worth. But is this necessary:
"We are not the ones to determine the direction of the coalition," he said. "We'll see where the coalition is going and on the basis of that, we'll decide whether or not to join it, or whether to support it from the outside." [...]
"We still have time until April 17," he said. "We're elderly people. We work slowly." The most important thing, he emphasized, "is to take care of our own."
10:38 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, March 30, 2006
Plamegate
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. Mike makes the tantalizing suggestion that Andy Card might have left over Fitzgerald's discovery of his and Alberto's scrubbing operation.
No one really knows what Fitzgerald is up to. He has made the focus of his investigation fairly narrow, at least so far, and he has no interest in the 2006 congressional campaigns. So my expectations remain low.
But this much is true: a whole lot of resignations from the Bush administration have been followed up by an indictment. The lag time tends to be about a month. I'll start getting excited when AG Torture resigns to spend more time with his family.
Since Firedoglake turned into the Daily Kos, there has barely been a mention of the case that made Jane Hamsher. Too bad.
10:54 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Katherine Harris hearts the gays
And John Aravosis discovers that a modern daughter of Jim Crow can be the "nicest, NICEST person you will ever know."
8:09 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Joementum: "I am not Republican Lite"
Kos responds:
Joe Lieberman, George Bush's favorite Democrat, hates being called "Republican Lite".
Lieberman: This is one of the big lies that the people against me are spreading and I'm not going to let them get away with it.
What's he going to do? Point to his GOoPer Chris Shays endorsing Lieberman and urging his party to put Lieberman on the GOP ballot line? His endorsement and offers for fundraising help from Sean Hannity? His big smooch from Bush at last year's state of the union address? His enthusiastic cheering at this year's SOTU? His attempts to shut down criticisms of Bush regarding the war in Iraq? His votes for Alito and Roberts? His efforts to censure Bill Clinton? His efforts on the wrong side of Schiavo debate? Or how about this:
Lieberman said he believes hospitals that refuse to give contraceptives to rape victims for "principled reasons" shouldn't be forced to do so. "In Connecticut, it shouldn't take more than a short ride to get to another hospital," he said.
I, for one, can't wait to see how Lieberman won't "take it" anymore.
Counting the vote in Israel
No machines, and it works.
As the polls close at 10 p.m, another observer from the Likud joins our little band to watch over us as we begin the tedious count. Adding up the number of voters and making sure that it tallies with the number of envelopes in the box is the first task. Then we open the envelopes and carefully remove the notes, placing them on blue spikes according to their party. Invalid votes are set aside, recorded and placed in a special envelope. One person counts off the notes and another tallies them up by hand on a printed form. It's now 11 p.m and each one of has been in contact with our party headquarters to report in on the count. It takes another hour or so to make sure everything is in the right envelope and we've all agreed to the vote count. By midnight, we've packed everything into the official box and sealed it with a huge plastic bag.
2:44 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Whoa
My dream denouement for an American election: it's a tie, and then the troops' votes come in and put the Democrat over the top. Well guess what: it just happened. In Israel.
Kadima, Likud and Meretz picked up one more seat each on Thursday, according to final results of vote counting in the wake of Tuesday's Knesset election.
Ra'am-Ta'al, Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas have lost one seat each.
This guarantees Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert a majority among Zionist parties in the Knesset for his plan to withdraw from the West Bank. This majority would be made up of Kadima, Labor, the Pensioners' Party and Meretz.
The majority of the final votes to be counted were from Israel Defense Forces soldiers in mandatory, reserve and career service, from prison wardens, prisoners, hospital inpatients, handicapped and foreign diplomats posted overseas. [...]
According to the final results, Kadima now has 29 seats, Labor has 20, Shas and Likud have 12 each, Yisrael Beiteinu has 11, National Union-National Religious Party has nine, Pensioners' Party has seven, United Torah Judaism has six, Meretz five, Ra'am-Ta'al three, Hadash three and Balad three.
The only bad news is that Likud tied for third. But we can live with that. Olmert reached 61 without Shas or UTJ, thus strengthening his hand immeasurably. Good for Israel and good for him.
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Approval
Bush is at 50 or more in only four states now: Utah (55), Wyoming (52), Alabama (51) and Idaho (50).
2:20 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Benedict's manifesto
Benedict XVI has made a clear statement regarding the institutional Church's role in national politics.
And the news is bad. On the first death anniversary of the pope who reversed Blessed John XXIII's and Paul VI's policy of nonintervention in national politics, we find that his successor has chosen to continue to define the Catholic Church as a sexually obsessed supporter of the nanny state:
As far as the Catholic Church is concerned, the principal focus of her interventions in the public arena is the protection and promotion of the dignity of the person, and she is thereby consciously drawing particular attention to principles which are not negotiable. Among these the following emerge clearly today:
- protection of life in all its stages, from the first moment of conception until natural death;
- recognition and promotion of the natural structure of the family - as a union between a man and a woman based on marriage - and its defence from attempts to make it juridically equivalent to radically different forms of union which in reality harm it and contribute to its destabilization, obscuring its particular character and its irreplaceable social role;
- the protection of the right of parents to educate their children.
These principles are not truths of faith, even though they receive further light and confirmation from faith; they are inscribed in human nature itself and therefore they are common to all humanity. The Church’s action in promoting them is therefore not confessional in character, but is addressed to all people, prescinding from any religious affiliation they may have. On the contrary, such action is all the more necessary the more these principles are denied or misunderstood, because this constitutes an offence against the truth of the human person, a grave wound inflicted onto justice itself.
Not a word about poverty, hunger, prisons or human rights either. No, the Church has no words to "address to all people" on such matters, "prescinding from any religious affiliation they may have." The right lionizes John Paul II because he made sex the obsession of the church rather than poverty and reconciliation. Benedict will likely canonize him in his upcoming visit to Poland. And why not? The world has always rendered great honor to goats. And their enablers.
1:46 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Christian art
I wonder if the NEA helped provide the funding.
11:32 AM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Nile Rodgers meets the High Court
One of the greatest moments in the history of high courts everywhere:
The opening day of the trial was filled with light moments, as when Mr. Vos demonstrated the workings of iTunes for Justice Edward Mann, who took notes on a Dell laptop. Mr. Vos downloaded a copy of "Le Freak," a 1970's hit from Chic, and proceeded to play it for the court.
10:03 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Time for a massive voter registration drive
The New York Times has a piece this morning on the Hispanic reaction to Republican immigration policy.
There is real opportunity here for Democrats, even those who support immigration reform. The reason? Hispanics are smart enough to distinguish between racism masquerading as social policy and genuine immigration reform.
In a lunch meeting of Senate Republicans this week, Senator Mel Martinez of Florida, the only Hispanic Republican in the Senate, gave his colleagues a stern warning. "This is the first issue that, in my mind, has absolutely galvanized the Latino community in America like no other," Mr. Martinez said he told them.
The anger among Hispanics has continued even as the Senate Judiciary Committee proposed a bill this week that would allow illegal immigrants a way to become citizens. The backlash was aggravated, Mr. Martinez said in an interview, by a Republican plan to crack down on illegal immigrants that the House approved last year.
The outcome remains to be seen. Speaker J. Dennis Hastert said on Wednesday that he recognized the need for a guest-worker program, opening the door to a possible compromise on fiercely debated immigration legislation.
Democrats see an opportunity to "show Hispanics who their real friends are," as Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, put it. [...]
Pollsters from each party say Hispanics, like other groups, typically rank immigration lower in importance than other issues, especially education. But they respond strongly when they believe the rhetoric surrounding the debate demonizes immigrants or Hispanics, as they did when Gov. Pete Wilson of California, a Republican, backed a 1994 initiative to exclude illegal immigrants from public schools and services. [...]
Democrats say that Mr. Bush's success with Hispanics has not gone unnoticed. Democratic leaders in Congress have expanded their Spanish-language communications, and after 2004 the Democratic Party vowed to stop relying on payments to Hispanic groups and organizations to help turn out Hispanic voters.
"How can you spend your money on get-out-the-vote when you are beginning to lose your market share?" Mr. Bendixen said. "But Democrats had no experience in campaigning for the hearts and minds of Hispanic voters. They treated them like black voters who they just needed to get out to the polls."
Still, both sides say it is the tenor and ultimate outcome of the immigration debate that may give the Democrats their best opportunity to attract Hispanic voters.
The Democratic Party did an execrable job with the Hispanic vote in 2004. It doesn't really deserve having the bloc handed to them on a platter the way it is about to. That said, a look at the story's accompanying graph tells another important part of the story: Hispanic voter registration rates are simply horendous, as low as a ninth of their population proportion in Utah.
Republicans haven't even gotten started going racist on Hispanics--the 2008 campaign, after all, has yet to begin; it will take a real intraparty contest to stir up the hate of the Christian faithful in the South, Southwest, farm states and California.
Democrats need a Hispanic voter registration infrastructure in place (those Hispanic ministers' brains might be worth picking) this year for hot Senate races in New Jersey, Florida, Rhode Island, Nevada and Connecticut (if Lamont wins the primary). But the dividends will be great once Hispanics are galvanized by GOP presidential primary racism in 2008. That's when mobilization will become a real possibility, and that's when we need to be ready.
A Democrat who carries Florida or Ohio wins the presidency. No one has gotten more than 52% of the vote in Florida since 1988, and the non-Cuban percentage of the Hispanic vote there is growing rapidly.
The most promising longterm pickup for Democrats in the Southwest (New Mexico aside) is Colorado, (where Hispanics are 19.1% of the population but only 4.4% of the vote) and Nevada (22.8% and 3.6%).
Iowa was decided by less than 1% in the last two elections, and Hispanics are nearly 4% of the population there. Wisconsin was decided by less than 10,000 votes in a state with over 200,000 Hispanics.
While a full scale realignment depends on the virulence of Republican hatred, Democrats need to think of a new mobilization strategy now. Let's hope they are working at it. And Tom Tancredo, we are counting on you.
9:57 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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About as likely as Oprah and Elton John having a baby
Ryan Seacrest-Out! dating Teri Hatcher.
7:40 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Yankelovich: Energy tipping point
A moment of opportunity, but are Americans really ready for a solution?
Daniel Yankelovich, chairman of Public Agenda, said the public reaches a "tipping point'' when it is gravely worried about an issue and believes the government has the ability to change matters. When the index was first published in August 2005, only the Iraq war triggered a similar response, he said.
"This time we find that a second issue has reached a tipping point, which is energy independence, and you have a very strong increase in the number of Americans who are intensely worried about the problem,'' Yankelovich said in a conference call.
``Now with this issue having reached the tipping point in the public I think that that means the political complexion of that issue is about to change considerably,'' he added.
In the latest survey, 85 percent of respondents said the U.S. government could do something about energy dependence if it tried. The share of those who worried foreign conflicts will drive up oil prices or cut off supplies rose to 55 percent from 42 percent in the August poll.
6:23 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Elliot Yamin
90% deaf in one ear. Wears an insulin pump. Asked to leave his high school. And the best male singer on this season of American Idol.
9:49 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Yum
Jack gets seventy months, which really is quite a lot. And then there is this:
Judge Huck at first ordered the defendants to report to prison in 90 days. But prosecutors said they preferred that Mr. Abramoff remain free for six months, so that he can continue to aid in the investigations that swirl around him and his former lobbying practice, and the judge said he would be receptive to that request. Prosecutors praised Mr. Abramoff today for his cooperation. [...]
In an unrelated influence-peddling case in Washington, Mr. Abramoff pleaded guilty in January to three felonies and agreed to accept a reduced prison sentence of about 10 years and pay more than $26 million in tax penalties and restitution to former clients in exchange for his cooperation with prosecutors. People involved in the case have said the Washington inquiry could involve more than a dozen lawmakers.
7:00 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"Tough on crime"
A year in jail is way too much, particularly if you didn't starve your dog to death on purpose. But then, something has got to justify all the money New York spends on prisons.
2:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Shas+Labor+Kadima+Gil+Meretz
Labor chairman Amir Peretz said yesterday in private conversation that he would not join a cabinet with Lieberman, since he saw the Yisrael Beiteinu chairman as a "new kind of Le Pen." Peretz was said to be interested in Shas and Meretz coming into the cabinet with Labor to create a "social bloc" that could influence economic policy. The number of seats Labor received will allow Peretz to keep the peace in the party by appointing six or seven Labor ministers.
With Shas' 13 MK's, the coalition would have over 70 MK's even without the Arab parties' 7-8 seats. It is clear that Shas', Gil's, Labor's and Meretz' support will mean millions more in spending on social programs. But Gil has no diplomatic stance, but I still don't know the degree to which Shas (and UTJ) will support Olmert's disengagement policy.
But while we wait to find out, here is a delightful article on Shas' strategy and electoral triumph.
According to senior officials in the party, the Orthodox party hopes to become “Likud with a kippa.” Encouraged by their success at the polls, Shas wants to “absorb, as much as possible, the potential pool of Likud voters.”
Shas' sensational triumph at the polls changes the party’s status completely. Rarely in Israeli politics is an opposition party rewarded so drastically by the voters. For Shas, this is a rare victory: after freezing in the opposition for three years, during which it constantly feared it would lose the favor of its voters, it now has cards to play.[...]
From the beginning, Yishai was adamantly opposed to disengagement from the Gaza Strip, evidenced in many photographs which show a tearful Yishai comforting evacuees. His steady stance led to severe dilemmas among anti-withdrawal yeshiva students over whether to vote for Shas or Baruch Marzel. Shas noticed this, and exercised the influence of the party’s spiritual mentor, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, on yeshiva rabbis, eventually garnering the support of many.
Yishai was the first to identify the anger and fury accumulating among traditional Likud voters over former Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s economic program. The Shas leader understood that Netanyahu's financial policy, in effect, acted against his own voters, and he took advantage of the Likud’s vulnerability to recruit its disgruntled supports.
Shas launched its campaign with the slogan, “A real Likudnik votes for Shas,” which proved successful, and the Orthodox party stole thousands of votes from under the Likud's nose.
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Novak: Hill hates Bush
And even he is beginning to wonder if they can hold the House.
Although there was no sign of the president lobbying to deflect this carnage, he was at the packed ballroom of the Washington Hilton on Thursday night for the House Republican fund-raiser ($2,000 a plate or $5,000 for the reception and a photo with Bush). GOP lawmakers may disdain Bush's policies, but they respect his ability to raise money for their campaigns.
Even when he was getting battered by Congress, Truman liked to call up his former Senate colleagues for a poker-playing cruise on the presidential yacht. Bush does not care to spend his spare time with members of Congress, and it was extraordinary that Bush traveled to the Capitol on Wednesday for National Hungary Day. Typically, the White House legislative affairs office was not consulted, and the president mistakenly talked about the March 15 event commemorating the 1956 anti-communist uprising rather than the 1848 revolution.
One of the president's top political operatives is telling the party's members of Congress that they should support Bush, not out of loyalty, but for self-preservation. In 1952, Democrats in Congress, accustomed to more than 20 years in power, thought they could survive by separating themselves from Truman. Instead, Republicans swept the November elections, which might be an object lesson about abandonment of their president.
12:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Rutland Herald: Rutland Vermont News & Information
Via Kos, looks like the grassroots impeachment efforts are bubbling up to a terrified legislature.
The Democratic state committee will decide in a special meeting April 8 whether to urge Vermont lawmakers to use a little-known provision in U.S. House rules to petition for President Bush's impeachment.
"What I can tell you is it's generated a lot of energy at the grass roots," Jon Copans, the state party's executive director, said Tuesday. "It's genuinely bubbling up from the grass roots."
Copans said Democratic committees in at least seven of Vermont's 14 counties had passed resolutions calling on Vermont lawmakers to use a rule contained in "Jefferson's Manual" — a book of parliamentary philosophy and procedural guidelines that was written by Thomas Jefferson and is used as a supplement to U.S. House rules.
He said not all the county resolutions were worded the same, but in general, they accuse the Bush administration of lying about the causes for war in Iraq, illegally engaging in electronic surveillance of Americans, and other offenses.
"Jefferson's Manual" lays out several procedures under which the U.S. House can start the impeachment process. Under the Constitution, the House drafts articles of impeachment, which are similar to a set of criminal charges, and the impeachment case is tried in the Senate.
One of the procedures in "Jefferson's Manual" says impeachment proceedings can begin "by charges transmitted from the legislature of a state." Supporters of impeachment have maintained that means Vermont lawmakers could transmit such a message to Congress.
The push for the Vermont Legislature, both houses of which are controlled by Democrats, to transmit a bill of impeachment to the U.S. House is not officially connected with recent town meeting votes in at least six Vermont communities calling for Vermont's lone congressman, Rep. Bernard Sanders, I-Vt., to push for impeachment proceedings to begin. [...]
Jeffrey Taylor, the Clarendon resident who first put forward the idea of using the "Jefferson's Manual" provision, said he expects that even if Vermont lawmakers sent an impeachment message to the U.S. House, it would be "dead on arrival" in the Republican Congress.
"The facts of Bush's offenses are so manifest, it's a matter that in large ways could lay the groundwork for action in the 110th Congress," which will take office in January, he said.
11:31 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Here they come...
The missing photos and videos from Abu Ghraib:
The Defense Department has withdrawn its appeal challenging a district court order requiring it to turn over to civil rights groups 74 photographs and three videotapes depicting images of abuse at Abu Ghraib prison in Baghdad, officials said Tuesday. [...]
Asked to comment on the department's decision to give up the appeal, ACLU attorney Amrit Singh told CNN, "The government never had a basis for withholding the photographs under the law in the first place. So the withdrawal of the appeal only confirms that the public is entitled to these documents under the Freedom of Information Act."
Although the department had been challenging the court ruling for nearly six months, the ACLU believes that the decision to challenge the ruling may have led to previously unreleased photos and videos of abuse at Abu Ghraib being leaked to and published by the Australian Broadcasting System and Salon.com in February.
But then there is this:
The Defense Department's decision "only applies to the 74 photos and three videos that were part of the litigation," another official said. "We reserve the right to repeat arguments and to appeal future orders to release other images."
Hmm.
11:27 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Andy Card
There is little to say beyond this. Mike, meanwhile, is right about the obit.
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Ken Livingstone's latest
This one is, at least, a lot better than the last.
Though Livingstone is known for contentious remarks -- he recently likened a Jewish newspaper reporter to a concentration camp guard -- splashing such verbal mud on Tuttle caused a flurry of amusement, embarrassment and tut-tutting among the British. Tuttle is a noted friend of President Bush and, it must be said, a purveyor of automobiles.
At issue is the U.S. government's refusal to pay more than a quarter of a million dollars in traffic congestion fees charged to cars that enter central London. The fees are a tax, the embassy says, and under international law, embassies don't pay taxes.
But Livingstone won't buy that line. "When British troops are putting their lives on the line for American foreign policy," he said Monday, "it would be quite nice if they paid the congestion charge." [...]
A spokesman for the British Foreign Office said that "a large number of missions pay" and that Washington should, too. The spokesman added that the congestion fee "comes under the same category as parking fees and toll charges."
When diplomats have refused to pay parking tickets in New York and Washington, it has caused an uproar. [...]
"This new ambassador is a car salesman and an ally of President Bush. This is clearly a political decision,'' Livingstone told reporters. On ITV television Monday night, he said: "It would actually be quite nice if the American ambassador in Britain could pay the charge that everybody else is paying and not actually try and skive out of it like some chiseling little crook.'' [...]
Meanwhile, the mayor last week tussled with two wealthy businessmen, telling them they should "go back to Iran and see if they can do better under the ayatollahs."
His style has won admirers and detractors. "He is a bit of an idiot," said Stuart Alldrydge, 41, a London letter carrier. "If someone said something like that about him, all hell would break loose. The Yanks should have to pay the charge, though."
"Good on him," said Ann Love, 29, who works in financial services and supported Livingstone's tough words. "I think he just blurted it out -- he's just too honest to be a politician.
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France
A racist country with good bread and a crappy economy. Tourists are fleeing if they can--a third of the flights out are cancelled.
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Krugman to the right of DeLong
On immigration, anyway. And everyone on the left should take Krugman's analysis seriously. While DeLong is right that restricting immigration is a lousy substitute for an anti-poverty policy, he sets up a bit of a straw man. Krugman is not necessarily saying that all immigration should be restricted but rather that unrestricted low skill immigration is unwise. And he is right. We might want to take a page from Canada's "Independent Class" policy:
Immigrants arrive under different classes representing different program objectives. The three broad classes are: Family Class immigrants who enter on the basis of family relationships; Independent Class immigrants selected on the basis of a point system that reflects occupational skills, experience and likely adaptability to Canadian society; and Convention Refugee Class immigrants who are admitted on the basis of Canadian laws governing refugee admissions and likely adaptability to the Canadian environment. These are generally called family (reunification) class, economic class, and refugee class immigrants. Major concerns of immigration policy, then, are the relative numbers of immigrants to be admitted under these different classes, and the rules and procedures governing each of these admission classes. These do not exist in a vacuum, but are informed by overall goals and priorities, by actual economic success and rate of integration to Canadian society of the different immigrant groups, and by political and regional concerns. Within the point system, there has been considerable interest in the questions of appropriate selection criteria and the relative weights to attach to the specific criteria for economic immigrants such as education, age, occupational skills, knowledge of languages such as English or French, and likelihood of business success.
But smart policy will always run into political reality: the Republican base, like Mr. Garrison on South Park, wants to get rid of all the Mexicans. And the Democrats are not about to be constructive on immigration just at the point that Republicans are about to replicate in the entire Southwest what Pete Wilson did in California: realign the Mexican American vote for a generation. No intelligent plan for immigration reform will have a chance in hell until at least 2009. But don't expect it then, either.
9:38 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Israel postmortems
The best one I've read so far is this one, written last night by Jo-Ann Mort. And it turns out that Shas is the third largest party with 13 seats, while Israel Beiteinu got 12. Likud is the fifth, that's right, fifth largest party in the Knesset. And here sre two headlines many have waited a decade for: "Senior Likud figures: Netanyahu needs to go, the nation can't stand him" and "The humiliation of Netanyahu ."
Summary #1:
The outcome of the elections sets up a possible center-left bloc of 62 seats, consisting of pro-disengagement parties Kadima 28, Labor 20, Meretz 4, and the Arab parties 10.
Another alternative is a right-wing bloc, made of Likud (11), National Union-NRP (9), Israel Beiteinu (12), Shas (13) and United Torah Judaism (6). It garnered a combined representation of 51 seats - not enough to keep Olmert from forming a government.
Olmert's associates, however, have already said that as far as future coalitions were concerned, the Arab parties would not be invited. On the same note, it was not out of the question that Shas and/or United Torah Judaism could join a coalition with Kadima. Furthermore, Israel Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman said following his party's strong showing that, "We would consider all offers, but we will not abandon our principles."
The surprise of the election was undoubtedly the Gil pensioners' party, led by 79-year-old former senior Mossad agent Rafi Eitan, which won 7 seats. Kadima officials expressed an interest in including in the coalition the party whose main demand is benefits for Israel's senior citizens. The party's MKs will have freedom to vote their conscience on diplomatic issues, according to Gil's platform.
What is just as significant, I suspect, is that Kadima+Labor+Meretz+Gil=59. Since the Arab parties in Israel are treated a lot like the Linkspartei in Germany when it comes to parliamentary coalitions, my suspicion is that Olmert will have to include either Shas or United Torah Judaism in the coalition. I am not quite savvy enough to know what that could mean in terms of diplomacy and disengagement, but there is no way that gives him more maneuvering room.
Summary #2:
While voters made it more challenging for Olmert to lead the effort, Grinstein said the results showed that Israel was ready to change direction.
"Across the spectrum the debate is no longer whether to do territorial compromise. It is no longer a debate on if, it's a debate on how," he said.
The Israeli daily newspaper Ma'ariv made the same point Tuesday by framing the election as the historic demise of "two shattered dreams":
"On the one hand, the shattered dream of the greater Land of Israel and of retaining the settlements for all of eternity and, on the other hand, the shattered dream of a final peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, an End-of-Time peace."
9:11 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, March 28, 2006
More on the pensioners shocker
Lots of good stuff in this piece:
Tel Aviv buzzed with rumors on Tuesday that the Gil pensioners' party passed the vote threshold needed to enter the 17th Knesset. In the stage built by Channel 10 in the center of Rabin Square in the city's center, hundreds gathered to look at the parties' stalls. The general consensus seemed to be that "Tel Aviv was voting for the pensioners."
In front of one Tel Aviv polling booth, four well-dressed trendy-looking 20-somethings tried to convince passers-by to vote for the pensioners' party. Though the activists seemed uncertain of where the party stood on issues such as defense and the economy, they said that as young, well-off Tel Aviv residents, they wanted to do something to help the "poor old people." They also acknowledge that it was a trend among youth in Tel Aviv to vote for the Gil party.
One Gil supporter, Sonya Blikin, saying she was "voting for the pensioners because they're the only party with a platform I can support. Actually, I'm not sure what the platform is," she admitted, "but I know that old people and poor people are sitting in the streets, and I feel bad and I want to do something to help them."
Supporter Beni Shaliv declared that "voting for the Gil party means freeing Jonathan Pollard."
Gil pensioner's party leader, Rafael Eitan, who became a household world name following the Jonathan Pollard spy affair in the United States, has pledged to work towards Pollard's release from the Knesset.
The former Mossad agent, who led the squad that captured Adolph Eichman in Buenos Aires in May 1960 Rafael Eitan became a household world name following the Jonathan Pollard spy affair in the United States. Eitan agreed to take full responsibility and resigned as head of the Office of Scientific Relations. Eitan has pledged to work towards Pollard's release from the Knesset.
Some voters were leaving Labor for Gil. Tel Aviv resident Gal Zilberman has been voting for Labor for 15 years. This year, he said, he was voting Gil. "They say people leaving Labor are racists," he said, referring to claims related to Labor leader Amir Peretz's Moroccan background, but added that this was "just not true. We're just sick of the Histadrut [labor federation that Peretz used to lead] and all the constant strikes." This year Zilberman was voting for the pensioners' party because, in his words, he was looking out for his future.
Back at Rabin Square, a crowd of teenage girls chanted "Save our grandfathers" on Tuesday afternoon. They said they had no official affiliation with any party, but had decided to come to the square at the last moment because "the old people need all the help they can get."
7:07 PM | Post or Read Comments (3)
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Likud: The voters are stupid
A classic:
Another shock was the dismal showing by the Likud. "The Right was stupid, and the Right will pay," Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chair MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) told Channel 1 on Tuesday night, following his party's slide to 11-12 mandates.
Steinitz did not pull punches when reacting to the Likud's projected mandates, saying that the Right had failed to guard its "one true option," and that "Israel, and maybe the Jewish people," would pay the price.
Meanwhile, here is an excerpt from the first of many electoral postmortems.
Yet Olmert's arguably failed gamble pails in comparison with his archrival Binyamin Netanyahu's. The former prime minister's resignation from Sharon's cabinet last spring was too little for Right-wingers, and too much for the centrists whose appreciation he had so painstakingly won as finance minister. Now it seems Netanyahu's accomplishments at the Treasury will far outlast his own political career, which may well have arrived on Tuesday at its improbable, premature and tragic end.
Another massively failed gamble has been Labor's.
The party's socialist bravados apparently attracted hardly one voter who had not already voted in '03 for either Amram Mitzna or Amir Peretz. Evidently, the effort to focus on economics while avoiding some admission of responsibility for the Oslo Accords' failed aftermath, has left the mainstream electorate alienated.
At the same time, the Pensioner List's sensational feat constitutes a stinging vote of no confidence in Labor by what should have been its most natural constituency under any circumstances, but even more so in an election that was dominated by social issues and came on the heels of reforms that victimized the elderly. [...]
Getting back to the present, the Israeli voter on Tuesday dealt the Greater Israel idea the same death blow it dealt in '03 to the land-for-peace idea. At the same time, even while handing Netanyahu a devastating personal setback, the public avoided empowering his economic archrivals. The result is a political scene that will be dominated by Kadima in general and Ehud Olmert in particular, and by the new ruling party's quest to reconcile military resolve with diplomatic flexibility, and free enterprise with social compassion.
Just as Sharon had planned.
6:54 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Kevin Phillips
One always reads the writings of a visionary. His latest concernsthe need for a recall provision under exceptional, Nero-like circumstances. I am not sure I agree, but I am intrigued.
5:42 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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AP
First plagiarism, then nonsense:
The center-left Labor Party, a likely coalition partner for Olmert, came in a strong second. The hard-line Likud, which dominated Israeli politics for three decades and opposes Olmert's plan to withdraw from much of the West Bank, came in a distant third, according to polls broadcast immediately after voting ended. [...]
The hard-line Israel Beitenu Party of Avigdor Lieberman, who advocates redrawing Israel's borders to exclude Israeli Arabs, was expected to win 12-14 seats, making it the third-largest party in parliament. Lieberman's party has two representatives in the old parliament.
4:53 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Yisrael Beytenu
More seats than Likud, and now the third largest party, after Kadima and Labor.
4:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Israel
Exit polls!
Exit polls released as polls closed at 10 P.M. Tuesday showed Kadima gaining from 29 to 32 seats, Labor from 20-22, and the Likud 12-14.
The three largest parties had been under mounting pressure as polls neared closing time, fearing that the lowest voter turnout in Israeli electoral history may sap their strength in the next Knesset.
A low turnout had been expected to work in favor of smaller, ideology-driven parties, especially those of the right. It may also enable such issue-based factions as the Pensioners party to enter the Knesset for the first time.
By 8 P.M., voter turnout was running some five percentage points behind that of the 2003 elections. Election officials said only 57 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots by 6 P.M., compared to nearly 62.8 percent at that hour in 2003.
Kadima, which analysts have said stands to be hit the hardest by low turnout, sent out hundreds of thousands of SMS messages, urging citizens to go to the polls before they closed at 10 P.M. The party also sent activists to aid Russian immigrant voters in distinguishing between Kadima's ballot symbol and the similar symbol of the pro-marijuana legalization [and longtime JUSIPER favorite] Green Leaf party.
Jpost.com update:
Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party was the big winner in the 2006 election on Tuesday, taking 29 seats in the 17th Knesset, according to an exit poll conducted by the Midgam company of 60 polling stations for Israel Television's Channel 1.
Olmert's likely coalition partners in Labor and Meretz won 22 and 5 seats, respectively, guaranteeing a majority for his plan to withdraw from most of the West Bank unilaterally within four years, as he promised during the election campaign.
The right-wing bloc of Likud, National Union-NRP, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas and United Torah Judaism won 50 seats (Likud 11; National Union-NRP 8; Yisrael Beiteinu 14; Shas 11; United Torah Judaism 6), not enough to keep Olmert from forming a government. [...]
The surprise of the election was the Gil pensioners' party, led by 79-year-old former senior Mossad agent Rafi Eitan, which won 8 seats. Kadima officials expressed an interest in including in the coalition the party whose main demand is benefits for Israel's senior citizens. The party's MKs will have freedom to vote their conscience on diplomatic issues, according to the party platform.
None of the other small parties running, including the Green Leaf Party, Uzi Dayan's Tafnit, the far-right Herut and Baruch Marzel's Jewish National Front, apparently passed the voter threshold.
4:12 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Justice Kennedy
The last hope:
arlier this month, the Stanford Law Review sponsored a symposium on the legacy of two of its most famous alums, the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist and former Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. Dan Roth attended the symposium and provides this very interesting report:
Based on the premise that one can learn a great deal about people from the way they speak of others, a rather unpublicized St. Patrick’s Day address by Justice Anthony Kennedy provided a rare glimpse into the personality of the man who most Court observers agree now occupies the ideological center of the recently constituted Roberts Court. Kennedy was the keynote speaker at “Looking Backward, Looking Forward: The Legacy of Chief Justice Rehnquist and Justice O’Connor,” a symposium sponsored by the Stanford Law Review. [...]
It was in his discussion of each justice’s major legal legacy that Justice Kennedy’s own persona seemed to come through. He spoke with great passion of Rehnquist’s commitment to separation of powers as realized in the jurisprudence of the “new federalism,” a project in which both Kennedy and O’Connor joined the late chief, as the means to achieving the greatest amount of individual freedom. But he spoke with equal fervor and admiration for Justice O’Connor’s commitment to equality – a commitment Kennedy attributed to her western heritage and her pioneering journey to the top of the American legal profession – a topic on which Rehnquist was often on the opposite side. And, addressing by implication critiques of Justice O’Connor’s “pragmatic” jurisprudence, Kennedy embraced a definition of the term that involves cognizance of the effects of a decision, stating emphatically that “awareness of consequences is quite different from results-oriented jurisprudence.” Hearing these points expressed in succession and in a context more human than legal seemed like a revelation of the complex conservative jurist of both the federalism revolution and the soaring equal rights language of Lawrence v. Texas.
4:05 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Speaks for itself
From the popbitch newsletter:
Last Friday was the final recording of Joey, NBC's disastrous Friends spin-off. Matt Le Blanc is not happy about it ending. There was a sign hanging on his dressing room door all night, saying "NBC fucked up", and at the wrap party Matt was seen going up to the executive responsible for re-commissioning the show asking, "Why do you hate me?"
3:59 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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"I voted against Pat Robertson before I voted for him"
John Courage McCain: greater whoredom than even I thought he was capable of.
Compare.
3:45 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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On indictments
Some say Rove is providing testimony against Cheney, and others say Fitzgerald is preparing indictments against Rove and Hadley. My expectations for Plamegate are now miniscule relative to Abramoffgate. Fortunately, the electoral implications of the latter are far greater.
3:38 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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While we wait for the exit polls
The Jerusalem Post reports that turnout is "the lowest in election history," at least as of 6 pm. Is that low enough to make a Likud government possible? I doubt it, but in the meantime, here's a good primer .
1:39 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Charlie Cook on NBC immigration poll
On the question of whether someone would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who favors tighter control over immigration, 71 percent said they would be more likely to vote for that candidate, just 11 percent less likely and 15 percent said it would make no difference. Voters age 50 and older and retirees were the most likely to support those candidates who favor tightening immigration, as were people in the South and Northeast, whites, small town and rural residents, regular church attendees, those with a high school education or less, those who preferred Republicans controlling Congress and conservatives. Roughly half of non-whites were more likely to support that immigration-control candidate, compared with just over three-quarters of whites.
Respondents were then told that President Bush proposed allowing "foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal, temporary-worker status," and were asked what they thought about it. Ten percent strongly favored it, while 27 percent somewhat favored the proposal (37 percent total in favor), while 20 percent were somewhat opposed and 39 percent strongly opposed (59 percent total opposed).
Although the sample of Hispanics was quite small, they appeared to be roughly evenly divided on the issue. The only demographic group that appeared to give even a plurality of support for the proposal was those with at least a college degree. The most intense opposition came from people in the Northeast, between the ages of 50 to 64 years old, small town and rural residents, independents and those with no more than a high school education. [...]
This is an issue on which members of Congress will really earn their paychecks. On the one hand, it is clear that the public is unhappy with having such porous borders and wants tighter security and a crackdown on employers who hire illegal workers.
On the other, it is hard to imagine how the restaurant, hotel, custodial, landscaping, construction and agriculture industries could even begin to operate, let alone make money, without a reliable source of low-wage, low- to semi-skilled labor that these undocumented worker