JUSIPER

 
ARG: Bush at 36

Posted by Sini

A tie with November for his lowest ever. The poll was taken between January 19 and 22. Other polls seem to be confirming a drop over the last week or two, which only confirms me in my belief that strongest factor explaining variations in Bush's approval rating since June has been neither Iraq, Katrina, impeachable surveillance, Libby nor Abramoff and corruption but simply changes in the price of gas.

ARG's polling for Bush's handling of the economy has been relatively stable at about 35% for the last six months. But look at the table for "National economy a year from now," which shows enormous pessimism: 62% believe it will be worse a year from now. That's the highest ever (In November it was 61%).

The price of oil hit an all-time high after Katrina and Rita and started decreasing in late October. The crisis in Iran has made the price return to near-record territory. Iran may determine the fate of Bush's second term not only because of its power over Iraq and its nuclear weapons grab--which given Iraq, Bush can do little about.

No, Bush's ability to remain in office without the specter of impeachment depends on the stability of the economy. That stability is not in his hands but in the host of crazed nations that control oil supplies and China and Japan, who buy our debt. If you watch CNBC-World you will see analyst after analyst warning international investors to beware of dollar denominated assets and even companies whose profits depend on exports to the U.S. There's a reason for gold's irrational rise: there are a whole lot of people who aren't betting on us anymore. Let's hope they are wrong; it would be a shame for Bush to take the country down with him any more than he already has.

Essential reading: Brad Setser and Nouriel Roubini: "Our Money, Our Debt, Our Problem"

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