JUSIPER
Wednesday, August 31, 2005
Republicans: Katrina came because of abortion
Not surprising. But I do seem to recall lots of hurricanes hitting Pensacola, home to clinic bombers.
4:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The stage is set
As the traditional conservatives of the U.S. foreign policy establishment get ready to kick the neocons to the curb:
The administration's policy choices have not been restrained by domestic political concerns any more than by American foreign policy culture. Much has been made of the emergence of 'red state' America, which supposedly constitutes the political base for President Bush's unilateralist foreign policy, and of the increased number of conservative Christians who supposedly shape the president's international agenda. But the extent and significance of these phenomena have been much exaggerated.
So much attention has been paid to these false determinants of administration policy that a different political dynamic has been underappreciated. Within the Republican Party, the Bush administration got support for the Iraq war from the neoconservatives (who lack a political base of their own but who provide considerable intellectual firepower) and from what Walter Russell Mead calls 'Jacksonian America' - American nationalists whose instincts lead them toward a pugnacious isolationism.
Happenstance then magnified this unlikely alliance. Failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the inability to prove relevant connections between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda left the president, by the time of his second inaugural address, justifying the war exclusively in neoconservative terms: that is, as part of an idealistic policy of political transformation of the broader Middle East. The president's Jacksonian base, which provides the bulk of the troops serving and dying in Iraq, has no natural affinity for such a policy but would not abandon the commander in chief in the middle of a war, particularly if there is clear hope of success.
This war coalition is fragile, however, and vulnerable to mishap. If Jacksonians begin to perceive the war as unwinnable or a failure, there will be little future support for an expansive foreign policy that focuses on promoting democracy. That in turn could drive the 2008 Republican presidential primaries in ways likely to affect the future of American foreign policy as a whole.
Most of the FPE (including author Fukuyama) hated the neocons to begin with, of course, and not for the most savory of reasons.
3:46 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Poetry
I just wish it didn't sound so much like an obituary.
2:47 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Default
The debt-peonage Bush bankruptcy law goes into force in October. Will the half a million new homeless in this country the first to join our new permanent slave-debtor class?
3:12 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Jack Cafferty on the job
His taste for simplistic questions and explanations finally finds the perfect target.
2:37 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Why didn't the Blackhawks show up?
I hope there's a very good answer:
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin is "very upset" that an attempt to fix the breach in the levee at the 17th Street canal has failed, and he said the challenges that the city is facing have "escalated to another level."
"The sandbagging that we had hoped would happen didn't materialize today, so the water continued to rise at that particular location," he said.
In an exclusive interview with WDSU anchor Norman Robinson, Nagin said the rising water has caused the generators to stop operating because the water got too high. Due to that, Nagin said he's been advised by the head technician at the sewage and water board that water in the east bank area of Orleans and Jefferson parishes will rise to levels equal to Lake Pontchartrain.
"It's going to rise to 3 feet above seal level. For example, St. Charles Avenue is 6 feet below sea level, there will most likely be 9 feet of water on St. Charles Avenue," Nagin said.
Also, if residents are in a part of city that is 10 feet below sea level, Nagin said the levels will probably rise to 13 feet of water.
He said the "bowl is now filling up" and the entire city will soon be underwater.
Nagin said the sandbagging was scheduled for midday, but the Blackhawk helicopters needed to help did not show up. He said the sandbags were ready and all the helicopter had to do was "show up." He said after his afternoon helicopter tour of the city, he was assured that officials had a plan and a timeline to drop the sandbags on the levee breach.
2:36 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Put the blame for New Orleans where it belongs
Not that Bush and company care too much about the losses in the only blue part of Louisiana. or they wouldn't have bothered zeroing out the budget for disaster planning and construction there.
Nor, most likely, does the Administration care about the loss of life in the Crescent City. There will just be fewer African Americans, after all, to disenfranchise next election. Maybe now they can even shelve plans for a Louisiana version of Georgia's poll tax.
2:09 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, August 30, 2005
Unlanced
Keith Olbermann slams Lance Armstrong.
And finding guilt within the current climate of uncleanliness in sports...is not enough. You can’t say: this guy cheated, this other guy won’t deny he cheated, these other guys look like they’ve cheated, therefore Armstrong should be presumed to have cheated.
No — you have to call this one on personal integrity. And if you asked a million people about Lance Armstrong’s personal integrity prior to the French report, all but about five of them would’ve said it was his strongest asset, well ahead of his cycling skill.
But I’m afraid they were mistaking a combination of extremely good publicity and the panacea for public reputations — cancer survivorship — for genuinely good character.
And that's just the beginning.
4:21 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Governor Spitzer
He leads Weld by 35 points and Golisano by 29. His favorable rating is a remarkable 69%. Still more:
Spitzer also does well among Republicans. He trails Weld by just four points among GOP voters and is behind Golisano by six.
The newest entrant into the race--Weld-- has his work cut out for him within his own party. He is viewed favorably by just 43% of Republicans in the state. Twenty-six percent (26%) of the GOP faithful have an unfavorable opinion of Weld while 31% are not sure.
While just 32% of voters view Weld as a carpetbagger, there is some concern about the fact that he has already served as Governor of Massachusetts. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say this makes them less likely to vote for Weld. That view is shared by 41% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats, and 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.
Just 22% of voters say that Weld's service as Massachusetts Governor makes them more likely to vote for him.
2:07 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Krugman on Greenspan
I'd quote from it, but it's worth reading in its entirety.
1:54 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, August 29, 2005
John Gumm
The meteorologist from New Orleans' CBS affiliate posts to his channel's discussion board.
10:33 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Winn Dixie thanks W
A Kos reader suggests a reason the streets of New Orleans aren't well patrolled tonight:
What now remains to be seen is whether the drawdown of stateside National Guard will materially affect the maintenance of order in New Orleans. Fully 35% of Louisiana's National Guard contingent is in Iraq - naturally including the most able and ready of those forces. Unfortunately, New Orleans doesn't have a "bad part of town" where looting would be confined; the city police will not be able to control looting with nightfall coming, and I guarantee you that there will be looting and violence in a city as poor as New Orleans.
10:27 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Sunday, August 28, 2005
Katrina blogs
You can find some over at Weather Underground. A good place to start is Steve Gregory's:
But here's a WAG on what I think MAY be happening with this storm. As discussed yesterday, there really has never been suchan intense storm in the Atlantic region that has been able to maintain this type of intensity for very long. 24 hours is about thelongest on record, and 12 hours is probably the average. EVERY storm I know of in which we have been able to observe eye wallreplacement cycles has always gone through the process to some degree. It's now been 24 hours since the last cycle finished. And at themoment, satellite imagery and the RECON data shows that the eyewall is clearly expanding. It never was able to get lower than 20NMearly this morning. Last night I conjectured that we may have seen an eye wall replacement cycle start this evening, and if it wentslowly, the storm would weaken some before making landfall. (This is in addition to the potential for some light windshear impacting the system before landfall.) At the risk of hitting enter on this, only to see Katrina begin a real eye wall cycling begin, Iam wondering if what we are going to actually see is a 'pulsation effect' where the exiting eye wall expands out to say 40NM, and then shrinks back down towards 20NM by morning. And because there are absolutely no other known environmental variable (except some light shear in the NW quadrant by morning....) this would result in some additional easing of winds during the next few hours, followed byan increase back up to as much as 175mph winds again by daybreak. If this process actually unfolds,...I don't think I will be going to getmuch sleep tonight. :-) .
Other than that - the track remains unchanged, and the 18Z model runs continue to show landfall along the SE coast of LA with the eye passing over New Orleans. The 12Z model runs, and the 18Z runs, all have pegged the speed of the storm that matches current trends, and there is no way to determine the precise point of landfall. NHC has shifted their track a wee bit further west to match what I had relayed to everyone earlier today. They have, however, adjusted the landfall intensity to be a high end CAT 4 at landfall, and most of the local NWS, with guidance from NHC, have eased back a bit on the max storm surge. Instead of 20-30 feet, many of the current local hydrological forecast are looking for 18-22 foot storm surge, with localized potential of 25 feet. All of which is still in the category of Hurricane Camille. Except, this storm is bigger than Camille! The logical premise that the storm will in fact weaken a bit before landfall is a very high probability outcome - no doubt about it. But as I alluded to above, there is a chance that this storm could actually intensify late tonight but before morning. But even if my 'eye wall pulsation cycle theory' I just created out of thin air comes to pass - there still is the issue of increasing wind shear affecting the storm in the last 6 hours before land fall as the developing TROF in the central U.S. which led to Katrina's curve northward to begin with -- could simply over power the storms massive circulation just enough to weaken Katrina anyway. But given the immense size and intensity of this once per century type storm -- there may be 'no stopping' this storm -- since Super Storms, like Katrina, create their very own , self sustaining environment -- and can 'deflect' small outside influences - such light wind shear, or areas of dry air.
Also Jeff Masters':
The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.
8:48 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Safia turns
George W. Bush's symbol of Iraqi liberation sounds an awful lot like Howard Dean on Meet the Press:
Language guaranteeing "rights and freedoms" is subordinate to the primary position given to Islam, opponents say.
"Human rights should not be linked to Islamic Sharia law at all. It should be listed separately in the constitution," said Safia Souhail, Iraq's ambassador to Egypt.
The prominent women's rights campaigner denounced wording that grants each religious sect the right to run its own family courts -- apparently doing away with previous civil codes -- as an open door to further Islamicise the legal system.
Although in practice, many Iraqis end up having recourse to religious authorities or informal tribal law, the idea of a united civil code is central to the modern state, Souhail said.
"This will lead to creating religious courts. But we should be giving priority to the law," she said.
"When we came back from exile, we thought we were going to improve rights and the position of women. But look what has happened -- we have lost all the gains we made over the last 30 years. It's a big disappointment."
6:28 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Katrina
The hurricane could not only devastate the great city of New Orleans but have major economic impact on the country as a whole
In an interview later with CNN, [New Orleans'] mayor also referred to the potential impact the hurricane could have on the oil supply from the vulnerable area.'The real issue - that I don't think the nation is paying attention to - is that through the city of New Orleans, through the Gulf of Mexico, we probably deal with almost a third of the nation's domestic oil that is produced. And that will most likely be shut down,' Mr. Nagin said. 'So, this can have a significant impact on oil prices going forward,' he added.
6:18 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Rangel
Always a great interview, he seems to have outdone himself for the local audience:
Rep. Charles Rangel was being interviewed on NY1, the New York City-based all-news channel, when he was asked Friday night whether he thought President Bush was taking too much vacation time this summer.
"Oh no, it makes the country a lot more safe," the Manhattan Democrat said. "The further Bush is away from Washington, the better it is. And sometimes I don't even think Cheney is awake enough to know what's going on. Rumsfeld is the guy in Washington to watch. He's running the country,"
"Cheney's not awake enough?" reporter Davidson Goldin asked.
"Well, he's a sick man you know," Rangel said. "He's got heart disease, but the disease is not restricted to that part of his body. He grunts a lot, so you never really know what he's thinking."
Asked whether he was suggesting that Cheney was not healthy enough to do his job, Rangel said, "Why do you think people are spending so much time praying for President Bush's health?"
"If he ever leaves and Cheney's in charge, there's not very much to pull together for the rest of our nation," he concluded. "This is a sad state of affairs."
5:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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GOP finally attends funerals
It took them two years, but party rank and file are finally showing up:
SMYRNA, Tenn. - Members of a church say God is punishing American soldiers for defending a country that harbors gays, and they brought their anti-gay message to the funerals Saturday of two Tennessee soldiers killed in Iraq.
The church members were met with scorn from local residents. They chased the church members cars' down a highway, waving flags and screaming "God bless America."
"My husband is over there, so I'm here to show my support," 41-year-old Connie Ditmore said as she waved and American flag and as tears came to her eyes. "To do this at a funeral is disrespectful of a family, no matter what your beliefs are."
The Rev. Fred Phelps, founder of Westboro Baptist in Kansas, contends that American soldiers are being killed in Iraq as vengeance from God for protecting a country that harbors gays. The church, which is not affiliated with a larger denomination, is made up mostly of Phelps' children, grandchildren and in-laws.
The church members carried signs and shouted things such as "God hates fags" and "God hates you." [...]
The funerals were for Staff Sgt. Asbury Fred Hawn II, 35, in Smyrna and Spc. Gary Reese Jr., 22, in Ashland City. Both were members of the Tennessee National Guard.
Hundreds of Smyrna and Ashland City residents and families of other soldiers turned out at both sites to counter the message the Westboro Baptist members brought.
So many counterdemonstrators were gathered in Ashland City that police, sheriff's deputies and state troopers were brought in to control traffic and protect the protesters.
The church members held protesting permits, and counterprotesters in Smyrna turned their backs to Westboro Baptist members until time expired on the protest permits.
"If they were protesting the government, I might even join them," Danny Cotton, 56, said amid cries of "get out of our town" and "get out of our country."
"But for them to come during the worst time for this family — it's just wrong."
5:28 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Paul Hackett on Hardball
The more you read, the better he is. Hackett is pitch-perfect; a candidate like him must utterly terrify Washington Republicans:
MATTHEWS: But they‘re not watching our movies at gunpoint. They‘re not wearing jeans at gunpoint. They‘re imitating our clothes, buying our clothes, buying our movies, our music because they like it. [...]
HACKETT: Well, I think that‘s a superficial portion of spreading culture, but I don‘t think that really gets to the core of what makes an Arab an Arab, an American an American, and so on down the line.
So, if what we‘re trying to achieve this week in Iraq is spreading the American culture, we‘re going to be unsuccessful at it.
MATTHEWS: Do you think part of that, Paul—and I respect your service, obviously.
HACKETT: Thank you.
MATTHEWS: I mean, thank you for doing it. (CROSSTALK)
HACKETT: My pleasure.
MATTHEWS: ... politics or policy. It certainly wasn‘t your pleasure. (CROSSTALK)
HACKETT: Oh, it was. You know, we Marines, we like that stuff, so it was fun. [...]
You know, did we fight, so that women would have equal rights in Iraq?
HACKETT: That‘s a new one. That‘s not why I went over there. That‘s not to say that that‘s a noble cause. Perhaps in the right circumstances.
MATTHEWS: Could you care less?
HACKETT: Look, I mean, the Marine Corps goes where we‘re told to go, but I don‘t think that should be why we use our military abroad.
MATTHEWS: Would that be an example of where you think we‘re using our military power to enforce—enforce our culture elsewhere?
HACKETT: Absolutely.
I mean, look, make no mistake about it, using the military in Iraq is and was a misuse of the military. However, with that said, I‘m all about going over to Iraq or anywhere else the Marine Corps wants to send me and get rid of bad guys. And if that means killing bad folks in Iraq or in Afghanistan, as a Marine Corps officer, I‘m all about that. I got no problem with that. But if you want to ask me as a politician, is that the right use of the military, no, it‘s not the right use.
Then there's this:
MATTHEWS: But [Bush] continuing to say terrorism. All the polls show that, when you say the word terrorism, people back the president. Isn‘t he smart, Paul, to keep saying, we‘re fighting the terrorists; we have got to keep fighting them?
HACKETT: Well, I think that‘s probably the best game he‘s got to play.
But what I like to say these last couple of days, particularly since yesterday, is, look, if we‘re going to fight religious terrorism and religious fanaticism, let‘s start right here at home and let‘s start with Pat Robertson.
And of course, the one that's making the rounds:
MATTHEWS: Would you like to be senator from Ohio and beat Mike DeWine?
HACKETT: Sure. Who wouldn‘t?
5:19 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Operation Yellow Elephant
Turns out there's one American operation meeting with success. The last third is the part to watch.
3:40 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday, August 27, 2005
Marshall on target
A wonderful piece with two connected parts: the first on re-Baathification(I am not sure what I think of it, but Marshall/Cole's points are surely worth reflection) with an analogy to post-war Japan, and a second that points to the central reason just about. anything George W. Bush attempts in the Middle East will be a medium term failure (i.e. through 2009):
What few seem to argue is that the moment President Bush gets serious about withdrawing from Iraq, European states and other Middle East nations are going to be worried about chaos, potential civil war, and outward migration. The American brand has been harmed in Iraq -- but that does not mean that all other nations will have the same problems. By leveraging our intent to withdraw, Bush could begin to angle with the Europeans, Egypt, the Russians (yes, even the Russians),the Saudis, Jordan, and other stakeholders in the region to take over roles that we will not continue. The players there need to be reframed -- and our eventual departure could be used to pass off responsibility to others.
But how to get them to go? The German Ambassador to the U.S. Wolfgang Ischinger once told me that his biggest fear about John Kerry being elected is that he would have to work hard to keep Kerry from asking Germany to send troops to Iraq, which many assumed Kerry would do if elected.
I think it's simple -- and it's a missing point in Juan Cole's excellent ten point plan, but perhaps still essential. The fact is that no matter what direction America goes with regard to the Iraq conflict, we really do need collaboration with other major powers -- even if we end up retreating quickly from the place. But most scenarios involve some ongoing presence. In that case, European and other key national support needs to be secured, and that must be one of our nation's highest national priorities.
But we are helping the Iraqi insurgents and al Qaeda fanatics in their quest by shooting ourselves in the foot with how we are respoding to the highest diplomatic priorities of nations we need. [...]
As best I can tell, President Bush, Dick Cheney, and Karl Rove turn every battle -- all of them -- into winner-takes-all, take-no-prisoners skirmishes. This is not strategy. This is just clear-cutting -- when America lets them get away with it.
Strategy would be losing the right battles to your friends so that America wins from them the support it most needs.
I think that a more enlightened posture on global climate change, global poverty, AIDS and other pandemics, and other of the Millennium Development Goals would be ideal battles for America to lose to its closest allies. If we gave them some "wins" to take back to their publics in order to secure their support for the biggest objectives America had, we'd all be better off.
All to which, presumably, a standard Republican response would be that we held an election to decide this.
Which would be right if all was right with democracy in America.
More about that when I discuss Georgia's Bush-sanctioned return to apartheid-type voting practices.
11:36 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Saturday song of the day
"Rebels are We" by Chic, from their classic 1980 album Real People. You probably know their other work from that year--huge hits like "Upside Down" and "I'm Coming Out" for Diana Ross." On their own album Bernard Edwards and Nile Rodgers were growing increasingly ambitious, thoughtful, funny, and damn catchy. It was outsider music (far more than punk could ever be) that could unite a nation. A blue nation, anyway.
Don't cage us in, we might just surprise ya
In order to convince you, we will
Oh no, you can't take away our freedom
And get this straight, for that we won't be still
The time is now, and if we have to fight
Come on let's unite, we gotta do it soon
We're gonna win, on that you can depend
Cuz if you don't, me and my baby are goin' to the moon
3:08 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Friday, August 26, 2005
General Clark: Bush=Vietnam
This comes at the end of a thoughtful piece in today's Washington Post:
The growing chorus of voices demanding a pullout should seriously alarm the Bush administration, because President Bush and his team are repeating the failure of Vietnam: failing to craft a realistic and effective policy and instead simply demanding that the American people show resolve. Resolve isn't enough to mend a flawed approach -- or to save the lives of our troops. If the administration won't adopt a winning strategy, then the American people will be justified in demanding that it bring our troops home.
6:01 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Karpinski spills the beans
No big surprise, but the blame for Abu Ghraib goes, at a minimum, all the way up to Cheney and Rumsfeld.
5:42 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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More voting rights in Iraq than in Florida
Not surprising, but a national disgrace nonetheless. From TAPPED's Mark Leon Goldberg:
It would seem that Katherine Harris' memo was lost somewhere in translation. Via the Institute for War and Peace Reporting:
(Al-Mutamar) Yoosho Ibrahim, the deputy justice minister, said all the detainees at Iraqi jails will take part in the constitutional process through a mechanism that will enable them to participate in the coming elections. According to the latest survey, there are 7,368 detainees in the jails, excluding those detained in the Kurdistan region
And there you have it: Iraq grants more voting rights to its prisoners than 14 states grant to ex-felons.
5:27 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Roberts and race
Yes, it's not just that all the documents we are not allowed to see are connected to race.
Now it turns out that Peppermint Patty is a Confederate sympathizer. No wonder Rehnquist is so fond of him. One can only imagine the hours they spent together sharing the Chief's stories of vote suppression back in the the good old days.
The article, which was to appear in the scholarly National Forum journal, was called "The Presidency: Roles and Responsibilities." Roberts was writing by hand a section on how the congressional appropriations process had evolved.
A fastidious editor of other people's copy as well as his own, Roberts began with the words "Until about the time of the Civil War." Then, the Indiana native scratched out the words "Civil War" and replaced them with "War Between the States." [...]
While it is true that the Civil War is also known as the War Between the States, the Encyclopedia Americana notes that the term is used mainly by southerners. Sam McSeveney, a history professor emeritus at Vanderbilt University who specialized in the Civil War, said that Roberts's choice of words was significant.
"Many people who are sympathetic to the Confederate position are more comfortable with the idea of a 'War Between the States,' " McSeveney explained. "People opposed to the civil rights movement of the 1960s and 1970s would undoubtedly be more comfortable with the words he chose."
John M. Coski, the historian and library director of the Museum of the Confederacy in Richmond, said the term was commonplace in the South until the 1960s or early 1970s. He said some people use "War Between the States" out of habit, others think it quaint or iconoclastic, and still others use it because they believe the Confederacy was right to secede.
Reagan used the phrase "War Between the States" in at least a few speeches he gave in the South. But in the end, someone must have had second thoughts about using it with this more national audience. When the article was published in August 1984 under Reagan's name, it employed the more generally accepted "Civil War" terminology.
1:59 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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No CAFE
Brad Delong summarizes Andrew Samwick on the uselessness of Congress' fuel usage policy:
From Congress's point of view, CAFE is useful because it keeps people from thinking that Congress is taxing them. What CAFE does is to impose a tax on fuel-inefficient vehicles which is then rebated as a subsidy on fuel-efficient vehicles. This tax, however, is collected and then rebated by the auto manufacturers themselves--they reduce prices on fuel-efficient vehicles below what they would otherwise be in order to meet their CAFE targets, and make it up by raising margins on fuel-inefficient vehicles.
Thus Congress is far from the scene of the tax. The problem is that, as Andrew says, it is a lousy tax to be levying. What we want to tax is gasoline usage, and taxing fuel-inefficient vehicles is a lousy substitute.
Twelve years ago the Clinton administration proposed such a tax--an energy usage ("BTU") tax. Think how much better off we would be on how many dimensions if that tax had been passed back in 1993.
1:39 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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America: Dissent is OK
Which means the post-post 9/11 era has now officially begun.
From the AP-IPSOS poll:
Do you think it is OK for people who oppose the war in Iraq to express their opposition publicly, or not?
—Yes, 87 percent
—No, 12 percent
—Not sure, 1 percent
From the same poll, the standard question on Iraq, but note the intensity of the opposition:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Bush administration has conducted the war in Iraq? (IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, ASK:) Is that strongly or somewhat?
(Results from June 2005 in parentheses)
—Strongly approve, 20 percent (26)
—Somewhat approve, 16 percent (15)
—Somewhat disapprove, 13 percent (11)
—Strongly disapprove, 45 percent (45)
—Not sure, 5 percent (3)
TOTAL APPROVE — 37 percent (41)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE — 58 percent (56)
GOP senators and congressman have a 14 months to reinvent themselves as judiciously critical supporters of George W. Bush's foreign policy. It remains to be seen how successful they will be, since all an opponent will have to do is put on a thirty second montage of C-SPAN clips to expose the hypocrisy.
1:33 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Marvelous
A particularly frothy Inquirer takedown of Senator Man on Dog. Short but definitely worth a read.
3:18 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The wrath of a Powell scorned
He is about to have his revenge on a whole lot of people. I understand it will be served ice cold.
3:04 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The U.S. Shiite Iranian Republic of Iraq
As unbelievable as ever:
In any case, the Shiite leadership has been ardent in its desire to set up a Shiite-dominated autonomous region, particularly Abdul Aziz Hakim, a cleric and the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. As advocated by Mr. Hakim, the Shiite region would comprise nine of Iraq's 18 provinces, nearly half the nation's population and its richest oil fields.
Mr. Hakim and many of the senior members of his group, the Supreme Council, lived for many years in Iran and even fought on the Iranian side during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980's. The Supreme Council is suspected by American officials of receiving large amounts of assistance from the Iranian government.
The effort by the Shiites to bypass the Sunnis began Thursday afternoon, when they canceled a meeting of the Iraqi National Assembly, which was set to gather, and possibly vote, on the final draft constitution. While many Iraqi leaders first interpreted that decision as simply a delay, the Shiites made it clear that they were considering bypassing the Assembly altogether and of forgoing any further changes to the document.
Because the majority Shiites dominate the National Assembly, there is little the Sunnis can do to stop them from writing whatever constitution they choose.
The concern that a deal on the constitution was falling apart appeared to have to prompted Mr. Bush to call Mr. Hakim to urge a comprise. One Iraqi official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said the Americans, who have already expressed their frustration with the Sunnis, have recently become irritated with what they regard as the stubbornness of the Shiites as well.
"The Americans are very angry that the Shia are not agreeing on this," the Iraqi official said. "They really want them to make these concessions to the Sunnis to keep them on board."
"They think that without keeping the Sunnis on board, many things will go wrong, including the security," the official said.
I wonder if there's some Reagan era Ayatollah cake left over. Maybe Mr. Hakim has a sweet tooth.
2:48 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Krugman
Not at his meatiest, but worth reading, as always:
Because employers don't have to raise wages to get workers, wages are lagging behind the cost of living. According to Labor Department statistics, the purchasing power of an average nonsupervisory worker's wage has fallen about 1.5 percent since the summer of 2003. And this may understate the pressure on many families: the cost of living has risen sharply for those whose work or family situation requires buying a lot of gasoline.
Some commentators dismiss concerns about gasoline prices, because those prices are still below previous peaks when you adjust for inflation. But that misses the point: Americans bought cars and made decisions about where to live when gas was $1.50 or less per gallon, and now suddenly find themselves paying $2.60 or more. That's a rude shock, which I estimate raises the typical family's expenses by more than $900 a year.
You may ask where economic growth is going, if it isn't showing up in wages. That's easy to answer: it's going to corporate profits, to rising health care costs and to a surge in the salaries and other compensation of executives. (Forbes reports that the combined compensation of the chief executives of America's 500 largest companies rose 54 percent last year.)
2:06 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Fickle Californians
They loved Schwarzenegger but now he's less popular than an economic Girlyman. And now they're opposing precisely the type of measures they would have passed overwhelmingly just a year ago when it appeared he would be the governor of constructive political reform:
The Republican governor's approval ratings are at a low point, with 50 percent of likely voters disapproving of his performance, and 41 percent backing him, said the report of survey findings by the Public Policy Institute of California. [...]
``Negative attitudes toward the election seem to extend to measures supported by the governor; and in opposing them, voters are rejecting key components of the overall reform agenda Schwarzenegger has proposed,'' the report said.
The research group found 61 percent of likely voters opposed the measure proposing to limit state spending, compared with 28 percent backing it and 11 percent undecided.
The measure proposing that retired judges rather than lawmakers draw legislative districts was opposed by 49 percent of voters and supported by 34 percent. Seventeen percent were undecided.
Likely voters were split over a measure that would increase probationary periods for teachers, with 49 percent supporting the idea, 42 percent opposing it and 9 percent undecided.
1:50 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tough winter ahead, and Bush made it tougher
High heating oil prices are going to make this winter tough for poor and middle class families, particularly in the Northern half of the nation.
By the way, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Montana and Maine, remember that the Bush Administration tried to cut the federal subsidy for heating oil as one of its only cosmetic budgets for 2006--surely out of electoral spite (not that it was their first attempt):
CUT: $200 million from the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program
Right now, 5 million families -- mostly low-income families with elderly and disabled members -- benefit from the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which supplements their heating bills in cold weather. These new cuts are bound to make their winters very cold indeed.
Established in 1982, the program has been under the knife since 2001 -- the 2005 level of funding was lower than any of the previous five years -- and the 2006 budget calls for an 8.4 percent reduction to $2 billion. Fuel money is doled out according to climate, so this cut will disproportionately affect northern states. Many poor people can't afford to properly insulate their homes, and, to make matters worse, the prices of heating oil, propane and natural gas are all increasing -- a trend not likely to reverse anytime soon. What's more, according to a fairly recent energy study, next to not paying their rent, people's inability to pay their utility bills is the main cause of homelessness.
"While we worry about the allocation of billions of dollars here in Congress," Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords said in a statement, "some people must decide between buying food and heating their homes."
The other cuts, in case you were wondering, were for clean water and food stamps, Upward Bound, and the renewable energy program.
12:33 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Killer Pat and the FCC
On the surface a bizarre comparison. But the more I think about it, Jesse Jackson's angle on Robertson's latest crazy-as-a-fox tirade (the man is not stupid... someone should find out what his personal stake in Venezuela is, since either he or a powerful FOP's surely has one) has a lot of merit :
The Rev. Jesse Jackson called for the Federal Communications Commission to investigate, just as it did when Janet Jackson's breast was exposed in the Super Bowl broadcast in 2004. "This is even more threatening to hemispheric stability than the flash of a breast on television during a ballgame," Mr. Jackson said.
One liberal watchdog group, Media Matters for America, sent a letter urging the ABC Family network to stop carrying Mr. Robertson's show. Another group, Americans United for Separation of Church and State, asked Mr. Bush to repudiate Mr. Robertson personally.
Mr. Robertson's show is broadcast by ABC Family, which agreed to televise it as part of the deal it made in 2001 to buy Fox Family Worldwide, which previously broadcast it.
In a statement yesterday, ABC Family said the company was "contractually obligated to air 'The 700 Club' and has no editorial control over views expressed by the hosts or guests." It added, "ABC Family strongly rejects the views expressed by Pat Robertson."
Mr. Chávez, who won office in 1998, has become the Bush administration's most vocal antagonist in Latin America, accusing Mr. Bush of terrorism for the Iraq war and of trying to impoverish developing countries by pushing market reforms. Mr. Chávez has often accused the United States of trying to assassinate him. The White House welcomed a coup against him in April 2002, but Mr. Chávez quickly regained power.
And only Pat Robertson could commit a faux pas so great that a human rights abuser like Fidel Castro to get away with this line:
Yesterday, Mr. Chávez was visiting Mr. Castro in Havana, and shrugged off Mr. Robertson's comments. But Mr. Castro said of the Robertson remark, "I think only God can punish crimes of such magnitude."
12:18 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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The kind of thing that would make Dick Cheney tear his hair out
I've often wondered why anti-American foreign leaders didn't try this more often; in any case, this is the kind of idea that would make rightwing men of God want to kill a man. And to say this in Havana, no less--the gall!
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, popular with the poor at home, offered on Tuesday to help needy Americans with cheap supplies of gasoline.
"We want to sell gasoline and heating fuel directly to poor communities in the United States," the populist leader told reporters at the end of a visit to Communist-run Cuba.
Chavez did not say how Venezuela would go about providing gasoline to poor communities. Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA owns Citgo, which has 14,000 gas stations in the United States.
The offer may sound attractive to Americans feeling pinched by soaring prices at the pump but not to the U.S. government, which sees Chavez as a left-wing troublemaker in Latin America.
Gasoline is cheaper than mineral water in oil-producing Venezuela, where consumers can fill their tanks for less than $2. Average gas prices have risen to $2.61 a gallon in the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Chavez said Venezuela could supply gasoline to Americans at half the price they now pay if intermediaries who "speculated ... and exploited consumers" were cut out.
12:12 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Thursday, August 25, 2005
Pop culture event of the month
No question. It's Kanye West's courageous call for an end to homophobia in hiphop.
Kanye West says "gay" has become an antonym to hip-hop - and that it needs to be stopped. During an interview for an MTV special, the 27-year-old rapper launched into a discussion about hip-hop and homosexuality while talking about "Hey Mama," a song on his upcoming album, "Late Registration."
West says that when he was young, people would call him a "mama's boy."
"And what happened was, it made me kind of homophobic, 'cause it's like I would go back and question myself," West says on the show, "All Eyes on Kanye West," set to air Thursday night (10:30 p.m. ET).
West says he changed his ways, though, when he learned one of his cousins was gay.
"It was kind of like a turning point when I was like, `Yo, this is my cousin. I love him and I've been discriminating against gays.'"
Given his credibility in the genre, his religious identification and his sales, there is a chance that his stand may be consequential.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution in today's editorial explains why this matters:
Although rap music has its roots in the black community, white suburbanites actually constitute the largest segment of its fan base. But it is black Americans — whether they listen to rap music, R&B or gospel — who suffer mightily from the pernicious effects of homophobia.
There exists a two-pronged stigma against being black and gay. To avoid being ostracized, a subculture of men pretend to be heterosexual while secretly engaging in sex, often unprotected, with other men. This so-called "down-low" lifestyle (which exists in white America, too) has helped accelerate the spread of HIV and AIDS, which are far more prevalent among African-Americans than other racial and ethnic groups.
Some skeptics might wonder whether West, who is featured on the cover of Time this week and is releasing a new album this month, is just seeking more publicity. Even if that's not the case, it would be hard for less-enlightened rappers to forswear the vicious, anti-gay lyrics that they believe somehow makes them seem more macho; one rapper does not a revolution make.
But West, whose hit song "Jesus Walks" introduced a much-needed jolt of social consciousness into rap music, clearly has a message that many of his young fans need to hear. Their parents, too.
2:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Corporal punishment in red and blue states
It will take me some time to process this. But the regional differences among red states between the yellow and green questions are the most immediately striking.
9:58 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Tuesday, August 23, 2005
Lobbying
I wonder how much the 50,000,000 Americans without healthcare spent lobbying Congress?
With hundreds of billions of dollars at stake, health care providers, insurers, drug makers and pharmacies are continually trying to influence rules for the drug benefit and other initiatives authorized by the [new Medicare] law.
"You see a real surge in health care lobbying because that's where the money is," said Frederick H. Graefe, a lobbyist for hospitals and makers of medical equipment. "Twenty years ago the defense industry was dominant and had the most lobbyists, the big players. Now it's health care."
Last year alone, the health care industry spent $325 million - more than any other sector - in its efforts to influence Congress and federal agencies, according to Political Money Line, a nonpartisan group that studies reports filed with Congress by lobbyists and their clients. Drug companies led the way. They reported spending $86.9 million on lobbying last year, followed by hospitals with $55 million and doctors with $35.4 million.
And how revolting is this:
John E. McManus, who formed his own lobbying firm after working for Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee, received a total of $620,000 last year from the American Medical Association, the Advanced Medical Technology Association, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America and several drug companies, including Merck and Genentech. Mr. McManus can help them navigate the new Medicare law because, as a Congressional aide, he helped write it. [...]
Richard J. Pollack, executive vice president of the American Hospital Association, said health lobbying had become more partisan.
"We hire Republicans to lobby Republican members of Congress and Democrats to work Democratic offices," Mr. Pollack said.
The Generic Pharmaceutical Association has retained Mr. Jennings and Mark W. Isakowitz to lobby for legislation to increase the use of generic drugs. As a White House aide, Mr. Jennings helped devise the Clinton plan for universal health insurance. As a lobbyist at the National Federation of Independent Business, Mr. Isakowitz, a Republican, helped defeat the Clinton plan.
1:59 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Monday, August 22, 2005
Don't mess with the telenovela
The major networks lost viewers. The two big winners among TV networks this summer? TNT and... Univision:
Spanish-language network Univision, meanwhile, dominated the rapidly growing young Latino audience with the telenovelas 'La Madrastra' and 'Apuesta Por Un Amor.' Univision, in fact, was probably the summer's greatest success story; the Spanish-language network is up 23% among adults 18 to 49 compared with last summer.
In Los Angeles, Univision station KMEX had six of the top 10 programs among all local broadcasters this summer, including the most-watched scripted program, 'La Madrastra.' Only Game 7 of the NBA Finals on KABC delivered better ratings locally this summer. Overall, Univision was the fifth most-watched TV network this summer, with 3.5 million average viewers. While not yet a threat to No. 1 CBS (7.4 million), the Spanish-language network has more prime-time viewers than TNT (2.9 million), UPN (2.6 million) and the WB Network (2 million). [...]
As for Univision's phenomenal summer, some of that performance is due to the explosive population growth among young Latinos, which Univision executives say compose the fastest-growing demographic group in the U.S.
But the network is also clearly benefiting from viewers' appetite for novelas, the often-racy soap operas that run every weeknight for several months. One key attraction, beyond the outlandish plot lines: The novelas — imported from Mexican broadcaster Televisa — are all new episodes, with no repeats.
"These continuing novelas strike a chord among Hispanics," said David Woolfson, senior vice president of network research at Univision. "They come across like a mini-movie, if you will."
Much of Univision's strength comes from markets with high Latino populations, such as Los Angeles, Miami and San Antonio. But Woolfson said Univision is also turning in strong numbers in non-traditionally Latino markets that have lately seen increased immigration, including Charlotte, Atlanta and Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
9:29 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Best paragraph
On the Rolling Stones' overhyped Fenway Park appearance:
Special signs were made by the city to deter illegal parking ("You Can't Always Get What You Want," they warned drivers), but the sign of the night belonged to a protester outside that chided California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as a "Sticky Fingers" politician.
The line was a reference to the governor's attendance at the show and his use of a block of tickets for fundraising. The tickets were given to Schwarzenegger by the Ameriquest Mortgage Co., the very visible sponsor of the tour. The protesters, many of whom were nurses caught in an ongoing tussle with the politician, were given plenty of local news coverage, and even Jagger tossed off a line from the stage about the strange concert subplot, welcoming Schwarzenegger to the show and joking that earlier he had been "out front scalping tickets and selling T-shirts."
There wasn't much else in the way of politics. The Stones skipped the new 'Sweet Neo Con,' an especially pointed barb at the Bush administration. And, like Schwarzenegger, the Stones are not above fundraising appearances. The tour is accompanied on TV by a new Ameriquest commercial featuring the band on a soundstage; the mortgage lender is apparently hoping the rock 'n' roll glitter might distract the public from the investigations in 30 states into its lending practices.
9:25 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)
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Keith Olbermann, truthteller
Devastating, funny, and spot on:
On his daily radio soap opera, on August 15, Limbaugh said “Cindy Sheehan is just Bill Burkett. Her story is nothing more than forged documents, there's nothing about it that's real…” The complete transcript of the 860 words that surround those quotes can be found at the bottom of this entry.
Yet, apparently there was something so unpopular, so subversive, and so crazy about those remarks that he has found it necessary to deny he said them - even when there are recordings and transcripts of them - and to brand those who’ve claimed he said them as crackpots and distorters. More over, that amazing temple to himself, his website, has been scrubbed clean of all evidence of these particular remarks, and to ‘prove’ his claim that he never made the remarks in question on August 15, he has misdirected visitors to that site to transcripts and recordings of remarks he made on August 12.
Limbaugh is terrified. And he has reason to be.
Understand this about Limbaugh. He doesn’t believe half the junk he spouts. I’ve met him, and had pleasant enough conversations with him, twice - at the 1980 World Series when he was still a mid-level baseball flunky with a funny name, and once in the mid ‘90s at ESPN when he was just beginning his campaign to get a toehold there. He is a quiet, almost colorless man who, if he could be guaranteed similar success in sportscasting, would sell out the sheep who follow his every word - and would do it before close of business today.
But with that ESPN bid having gone up in flames just under two years ago, and sports forever closed off to him, he’s gotten into what the novelist Robert Graves called a “Golden Predicament” - overwhelming success in a field he really had no intention of pursuing - and he has to keep churning this stuff out every day. And when you’re just free associating to kill time and keep the ditto-heads happy, you sometimes drive right off the end of the pier.
Read the entire piece here.
So what is it about former sportscasters? Are people like Costas and Olbermann are the only ones in the broadcast journalism industry with any sense of integrity? And could it be that their sense of public responsibility is a result of their lack of experience in corporate news divisions?
5:01 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)
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Senator Paul Hackett from the great state of Ohio
It looks like he's become the de facto nominee. It will be the race of the year, electoral dynamite with national spillover effects.
Excerpts from the unexpectedly successful House campaign:
Hackett told USA Today that Bush's taunting line, "Bring 'em on!" was "the most incredibly stupid comment I've ever heard a president of the United States make." He also told the newspaper that, while he was willing to put his life on the line for the president, "I've said that I don't like the son-of-a-[expletive] that lives in the White House."
Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee have bought TV time for commercials over the weekend. "He called the commander in chief a son-of-a-[expletive]," said NRCC spokesman Carl Forti. "We decided to bury him."
Hackett, hoping to capitalize on the widespread disarray in the scandal-plagued Ohio GOP, remains unapologetic about his characterization of the president. "I said it. I meant it. I stand by it," he said in a phone interview. "In this district, we need more straight-talking, straight-shooting politicians."
And from Michael Crowley's typically excellent profile:
As his aides handed out flyers nearby, they cut straight to the chase: "Please vote for Paul Hackett. He just got back from Iraq." The impact of this one-liner was plain to see. The worn-out workers would emerge from their shifts with a disinterested look, until the I-word stopped them in their tracks. "Did he? Huh," replied one burly African American in a Bengals cap, studying Hackett's flyer. Others thanked him profusely for his service. Some were turned off by Hackett's Bush-bashing. But part of his appeal, one suspects, was that he never backed away from it. During a lull in his handshaking, Hackett stood under the blazing sun with his hands on his hips, looking gallant in gold-rimmed Ray-Bans. "That one guy, he came up to me and told me, 'I didn't like the way you called the president a chicken hawk. You can't say that.' I said, 'The hell I can't!' I asked him, 'Did you serve?' He says, 'No.' Figures. That's who I get that the most from, the guys who didn't serve."
Excerpts from an interview just after his congressional race earlier this month:
AMY GOODMAN: Paul Hackett, yesterday seven marines died in Iraq from Ohio.
PAUL HACKETT: Yes.
AMY GOODMAN: There were a lot of marines out campaigning for you --
PAUL HACKETT: Yeah.
AMY GOODMAN: -- leading up to yesterday's election of Jean Schmidt. Can you talk about your reaction?<