JUSIPER

 
A moment of optimism from a pessimist

Posted by Sini

Zogby has released results of its latest battleground poll; all it really shows is the tenuousness of Kerry's lead at this stage of the game.

But it's worth remembering this: Kerry was not supposed to be ahead by the time of this convention; in fact, he was supposed to be ten points behind after a barrage of negative and unanswered Bush ads between April and July.

So when Zogby announces that Kerry is actually ahead by two points in Tennessee, maybe the believability of interactive polling shouldn't be our first concern. It should, rather, be amazement. None of us everdreamed that the closest states before the Democrats got through with their convention would be Florida, Missouri and Nevada, or that undecideds would be down to a tiny sliver of the electorate, or, even more, that fully three quarters of them think the nation is on the wrong track.

Rasmussen reports that it is mostly Democrats who are watching this convention. Its primary success, therefore, will lie in solidifying the base and strengthening organizing. We have already begun to see this process in meeting after meeting of individual constituencies at this convention, from yesterday's Emily's List and Revolutionary Women activities, to Sunday's pan-labor event, to the HRC's several events, including a remarkable appearance by Senator Kennedy (all of which we will blog on in more detail later).

But for now, let's be happy. Challengers should never be ahead before their conventions even start. And John Kerry is.



3:39 PM |