JUSIPER

 
The Dean Affair

Posted by Sini

A few thoughts on the Dean campaign before JUSIPER travels to New Hampshire today.

1. The media consensus is that Dean is toast. It is certainly true that no amount of negative campaigning by other candidates could manage what Dean did to himself Monday night. It was an act of political suicide on live television that permanently changed the dynamics of the presidential race in a way we could never have imagined even one week ago.

2. The media were very unfair to Dean. Dean’s outburst was not insane either—it was tongue in cheek and a poignant moment of exuberance and self-mockery. It was preceded by an even funnier moment, when he said the campaign would win in Massachusetts, and in North Carolina. And in Arkansas, and in Connecticut. The moment that distilled everything that was great and funny and outrageous about the campaign was when Dean couldn’t stop there and added, goaded by an audience member, "And New York, and Ohio." Given the circumstances, a third place finish which must have been heartbreaking for the thousands of young people who poured their heart out to help that campaign, the litany that followed was a leader’s natural response. Unfortunately, it was also, for many in the nation, their introduction to Dean.

3. The Washington media never liked Dean. The rightwing media hated him, even though Dean was their candidate of choice to run against. His action turned into a meltdown in part because both these groups saw their opportunity.

4. At the same time, it is important to note that a large segment of the country believes the President should be a figure of dignity and propriety. While it may amaze many on the left, they see that dignity in George W. Bush. They did not see it in Bill Clinton after the Lewinsky affair. To this significant portion of the population, Dean destroyed himself that night. More importantly, Dean destroyed himself among those with friends or family members in that group. For with that moment came a realization: that many among their loved ones, even those sympathetic to Democratic causes, would now never conceive of voting for Dean because he lacked "the temperament for the job."

5. New Hampshire voters are independent and happen to share a border with Vermont. If there is any state Dean can come back in, it’s New Hampshire. It is not impossible for Dean to come back, although at this point it would take a Kerry disaster of Dean proportions.

6. The problem for Dean is that the race leaves New England after Tuesday. A victory would be seen as a legitimate comeback, but he will not win a single February 3rd state even if he wins New Hampshire.

7. If Dean comes in 2nd or 3rd on Tuesday, cognizant of this reality, he will begin considering his options. He has the money to continue, but so did Phil Gramm in 1996. I believe Dean will be dismissed as a factor in this race by February 4th and may be out by the 11th.


11:31 AM |