JUSIPER

 
Clinton backers start organizing against Obama

Posted by Sini

And ironically, with Nader running once again, they are mobilizing in swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. Do the Clintons favor these actions? Quick answer: quite possibly. But if their involvement in an attempt to sink Obama is proven (and successful), they will be sunk in 2012. The nomination will almost certainly go to someone else.

1:50 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Minnesota madness

Posted by Sini

The Body may enter the Senate race as an independent. Hard to tell whether he takes more votes from Coleman or Franken... or whether he could win.

6:22 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
First the hundred years comment

Posted by Sini

Now comes news that McCain told Ohio voters that their economic problems were just "psychological." I have a feeling we'll be hearing a whole lot more of this quote. And the Ohio Democratic Party was even smart enough to get voters' reactions. Take a look.

Thank you John McCain! You couldn't have picked a better state to make your thoughtless comment in.

6:18 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
China and the press

Posted by Sini

Chinese apparatchiks discover that a freer media isn't such a bad thing when the government doesn't Katrina the recovery. The same, presumably, can't be said for covering state sponsored genocide.

3:08 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Remembering Alex Sanders

Posted by Sini

Who in better times would have defeated Lindsey Graham to take over Strom Thurmond's seat in 2002. A great university president, judge, and South Carolinian.

Quotes:

"I don't like to mix religion and politics, but Jesus didn't ride into Jerusalem on an elephant."

“We are all loyal Americans, and we are privileged to live in a country like no other country in the world. For various reasons, mainly by accidental birth, we choose to live in the reddest of red states. We laugh today to keep from crying.”

More:

When Thurmond retired from the Senate, Democrat Alex Sanders sought Thurmond's seat. If Sanders had won, South Carolina would've been represented by Hollings and Sanders, achieving the distinction of having arguably the two funniest members of the US Senate serving the state.

As Sanders campaigned, he would often tell the story of the Jewish fellow who left South Carolina, moved to New York and became a Communist. Eventually, he returned home and ran a store in a small town full of Klansmen. The FBI threatened to expose him to his neighbors if he didn't cooperate with the bureau's investigation of Communist activists. On his way home, the man saw an old-fashioned Gospel tent meeting, where he accepted Jesus as his savior and confessed all his sins, including having been a Communist.

"Well," Sanders said, "people in the South just love those who have fallen into sin and ask forgiveness. And Klansmen don't have much sympathy for the FBI. He never had any trouble in town after that."

Joe Klein's terrific New Yorker profile here.

2:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Hamas endorses Archuleta!

Posted by Sini

May surprise.

2:23 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Senator Kennedy at Mass General

Posted by Sini

Stroke-like symptoms. More as it comes.

1:40 PM update: Still no word.

2:00 PM update: Seizure, not stroke.

3:00 PM update: Still no details on the seizure, but it is confirmed that the great senator did not have a stroke.

4:30 PM update via the New York Times:

"Family members and friends gathered in Boston. One person close to the family said that after an initial scare, Kennedy intimates were reasonably optimistic Mr. Kennedy would recover quickly and fully. Another family friend described his medical condition as serious but not life-threatening."

11:49 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Train wreck

Posted by Sini

NKOTB comeback=Bill Clinton since South Carolina?

1:06 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Hooray for the Franciscan Sisters of Saint Mary

Posted by Sini

And the Sisters of Mercy of the Americas. Their efforts and those of many others helped stop Missouri from adopting a draconian Voter ID law that would have disenfranchised thousands of voters just months before the general election.

12:08 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Mike Huckabee

Posted by Sini

Our nation has yet to recover from the deaths of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy 40 years ago. Today, Mike Huckabee made light of the possibility of the assassination of Barack Obama at the NRA convention in Louisville, Kentucky.

Will John McCain denounce these words? Will the rest of the GOP? Will the news media care to cover these words from a governor with white supremacist ties who could be his party's vice presidential nominee? Don't hold your breath.

6:04 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
PPD coalesces around Obama

Posted by Sini

In an island whose political culture has been elite driven for centuries, it is a huge deal to have the endorsements of the present governor and head of the PPD as well as former PPD governor Rafael Hernández Colón. Acevedo Vilá's chief intraparty rival, too, has lined up behind Obama. Obama could still use the active support of more mayors and their local machinery. But it's fair to say that most of the PPD's energy is with Obama.

The PPD, however, is only one half of the equation. Had the head of PNP, resident commissioner and gubernatorial candidate Luis Fortuño, endorsed Clinton, the primary would have essentially turned into a proxy battle between the PDP and PNP for the 2008 gubernatorial election. There is a precedent for precisely such a situation: the battle royale in 1980 between Carter and Kennedy, in which Carter, backed by Romero's PNP won 26 delegates to Kennedy's Hernández Colón's PDP backed 25.

But Fortuño is a Republican, as is PNP Vice President and San Juan Mayor Jorge Santini. Fortuño's running mate, resident commissioner candidate Pedro Pierluisi, backs Obama, as do a number of influential statehooders, including Norma Burgos. Given his pariah status among many in the PNP, it is hard to believe that Senate President Kenneth McClintock's support of Clinton will be a major plus for her. But a number of bigger players within the party, most notably former governors Pedro Rosselló and Carlos Romero Barceló, back Clinton. It is, indeed, widely believed that most PNP voters back Hillary, while most PPD voters are with Obama.

Because Puerto Ricans have not demonstrated a high degree of political participation in presidential primaries since 1976, the question is largely one of turnout. There are only three forces strong enough to produce massive turnout: the parties, unions, and churches. So far, it would appear that only the first two are players this time around.

Among unions, AFSCME and SPU, for example, are with Clinton, and loudly. SEIU is with Obama nationally, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the organization's local webpage. But with SEIU's national convention scheduled to be in Puerto Rico days before the primary, some mobilization may be in order. The AFGE endorsed Obama a week ago today, but its local representatives have yet to make their voices heard.

The only poll conducted so far had Clinton ahead 50-37. But likely voter screens must be extraordinarily difficult in Puerto Rico, where most people's party affiliation is local, not national. Right now, only the PPD has its machinery strongly behind one candidate. In short, the Clinton forces will have to work harder to generate turnout. Because of her alleged natural advantage among PNP voters, and, anecdotally, among elderly and female voters, she will win if they show up (which is one of the reasons Chelsea Clinton's long stay here is not irrelevant). But if it comes down to party machinery, Obama may do much better than the stateside media thinks.

1:15 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Finally some presidential campaign coverage today

Posted by Sini

On Puerto Rican television. On one chanel it came about 20 minutes into the evening news, and on another, seven minutes in. Most of the visuals focused on Michelle Obama's appearance at Caguas' botanical garden, where she was accompanied by Acevedo Vilá and his erstwhile rival William Miranda Marín. Chelsea Clinton's three day tour, meanwhile, got less coverage, while her hopes for a crowning photo op in Vieques were crushed by the U.S. Navy, which said that "no one is allowed to campaign on federal property." Good thing the Knesset isn't federal property!

11:14 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
The Bush family's history

Posted by Sini

With a certain someone W mentioned on the Knesset floor today.

11:06 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Is any Republican consistent on gay rights?

Posted by Sini

There's one, an exception to the Christian Confederate wing of the party. Former congressman Bob Barr, the author of the Defense of Marriage Act. Only one problem: he left the GOP and now wants to be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president.

7:52 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Veepstakes

Posted by Sini

Omerta, so in the meantime you can take a look back at our earlier post on the topic.

7:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Chelsea in Ponce

Posted by Sini

With "Obama better lose so that we can regain access in 2012" camp in full attendance. The Clintons are calling in any chits they can this campaign, the result yesterday was Chelsea recalling her father granting the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Isolina Ferré.

But the bottom line in Puerto Rico right now is that even with less than three weeks left until the primary, political news on television is still focused on Acevedo Vilá. Even Michelle Obama's visit yesterday barely rated a mention on evening newscasts.

7:12 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Edwards rumors rampant

Posted by Sini

It wouldn't be the first time, but word is that he may finally take the plunge this evening in Michigan, home to campaign manager and recent Obama endorsee David Bonior.

UPDATE: The New York Times now confirms.

5:18 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
James Carville: Obama will be the nominee

Posted by Sini

Wow:

“I still hear some dogs barking,” said Carville, the flamboyant Louisianan known as the left’s ragin’ Cajun. “I’m for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee.

“As soon as I determine when that is, I’ll send him a check.”

And some rare constructive words from a political legend who has been singularly (self) destructive this campaign season:

Carville said there are two groups of Democratic voters — one affluent, the other middle- to lower-middle-class. The groups have different views on the role of government, he said.

The affluent group — mostly women — is suburban, well-educated and mostly interested in reform. The second group, Carville said, is made up of downscale rural and urban residents, “people that look to the federal government to soften the harder edges of capitalism.”

What has made this year’s Democratic debate interesting, Carville said, is that Obama and Clinton have been drawing their support from subgroups within both factions. For example, among more affluent voters who have favored Obama, Clinton does well among women. Among middle- and lower-middle class voters who have favored Clinton, Obama does well among young voters.

“All of these things that are happening,” Carville said, “the uniqueness of the field, the historical events, there really is no precedence for it.”

Carville said the nearly three months between the end of primaries in June and the Democratic National Convention at the end of August would be the most important time for the Democratic nominee this year. The nominee, Carville said, would need to bridge some of the party fissures.

Among those is the Democratic Party’s appeal to white, often blue-collar voters. Clinton has claimed she draws more of those voters than Obama. Carville said Obama likely wins fewer white men than John Kerry did in 2004, but that Obama energizes people and draws new voters to the party.

“It is important that respect be shown” to all voting groups, Carville said, noting Democrats do not like to “vanquish” voters within their ranks who supported a failed candidacy.

“The country really wants to vote for (Democrats). We have to not talk our way out of it.”

1:38 PM | Post or Read Comments (1)

 
JUSIPER joins State Blogger Corps representing Puerto Rico

Posted by Sini

We thank the DNCC and look forward to meeting our fellow bloggers from the mainland come August. Much, much more on the Puerto Rico in the coming days.

1:25 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Apropos of our earlier post

Posted by Sini

Via TPM, The death of a Clinton campaign talking point, courtesy of the latest Quinnipiac poll.

It finds that McCain beats both Hillary and Obama by an identical margin among working class (no college) white voters.

Among these voters, McCain beats Obama 46%-39%.

And McCain beats Hillary 48%-41%.

That's a seven point spread in both cases.

What's more, the poll also finds that both lose to McCain by an equal margin of seven points among whites overall.

1:19 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Politics is pretty simple at its core

Posted by Sini

Much as we appreciate Andrew Sullivan's political transformation, it was caused less by the great issues of war and peace than by his lifestyle being impacted by the evangelical takeover of his American Tory party.

8:20 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
And the biggest difference between WV and IN and NC

Posted by Sini

Is that West Virginia voters have a taste for really dumb solutions to real problems. 63% of them thought the Clinton-McCain gas tax proposal was a good idea.

They also came to very different conclusions about Hillary Clinton's character: 63% of West Virginia Democrats believed her to be honest and trustworthy, making them different from voters in the rest country. And why wouldn't they? Nearly a quarter of the electorate said the race of the candidate was important to them. Of them, 81% voted for the candidate of hard working white people.

This state, like Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee, is tailor made for Hillary Clinton. John McCain is beats her in all four states. It shouldn't surprise us that West Virginians picked a white woman over a black man. And it should surprise us even less that they'll pick a white male Republican over a white female Democrat any day of the week.

8:17 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
And two big victories last night

Posted by Sini

Democrats took a seat in Mississippi, Mississippi, from the GOP... with an eight point margin. And intellectual and Italian-raised ranchhand Scott Kleeb trounced the opposition to become the Democratic nominee for the US Senate in Nebraska.

8:00 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
And the winner of the West Virginia primary is...

Posted by Sini

John Edwards.

7:55 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Fossella

Posted by Sini

More to the story than meets the eye.

6:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Clinton's Appalachian racists

Posted by Sini

Yes, they would never vote for a black man for president. But here's the Clinton campaign's dirty secret: they would also never vote for Hillary against a Republican. The margins would be smaller, but the number of electoral votes she'd win out of Appalachia would be the same as Obama: zero.

The Kentucky primary numbers: Clinton 58 Obama 31.

The general election numbers: McCain 53 Clinton 41, McCain 58 Obama 33.

You'll likely find similar numbers in Tennessee, West Virginia and Arkansas, which by May 20th will have provided Hillary with her only 20+ point victories.

And all of which she would lose in the fall if she were the nominee, even if black people did turn out to vote for her.

12:15 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
As fear of the Clintons recedes

Posted by Sini

The truth about her botching of heath care comes out. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign has trouble with sourcing.

11:41 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
"10 Things You'll Miss About Hillary"

Posted by Sini

Funny.

11:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Hillary campaign responds to Obama Girl

Posted by Sini

And it's about time. Courtesy of reader G.

6:31 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Early word on the new Indiana Jones movie

Posted by Sini

Disastrous. And the dialogue seems so bad that George Lucas may have had a hand in writing it.

2:05 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Derrick Jackson on Clinton and race

Posted by Sini

On target

Obama just got done being tarred and feathered as an elitist by Clinton and the talk shows for belittling "bitter" people in jobless small towns who "cling to guns or religion." Yes, that was dumb.

Yet here is Clinton dancing all over stereotypes. There is no way you can say in the same sentence, "hard-working Americans, white Americans," without diminishing black Americans as lazy.

Can you imagine the Jeremiah Wright-level furor if Obama turned Begala's words upside down and said: "We cannot win with the working class and white people. OK. That's the Reagan coalition?"

The truth is that Clinton is in denial about one of the key reasons for her slide from inevitability. She choked on the black vote. Conveniently forgotten in her reinvention in Pennsylvania as Rocky Balboa (who conveniently was a white working-class boxer trying to beat down a black champion), is that this white woman led Obama in an October 2007 CNN poll, 68 percent to 25 percent among black women and was nearly dead even with Obama among black men.

It was not just that Obama stunned the conventional political world. It was also, as this column has pointed out, because of steady dollops of racial and religious innuendo from surrogates, most notably husband Bill Clinton and former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro. All the love built up between the Clintons and black folks became love and war when a black man stood between them and their castle. [...]

But in a year in which Republican enthusiasm is in doubt with a bad war and a bummer economy, it must be remembered that Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 in three-way races with a grand total of 39 percent of the white vote and 83 percent of the black vote and 61 percent of the Hispanic vote and besting the first President Bush and Ross Perot among all age groups.

Ironically, Obama got to where he is by not being the "black" candidate. It is Clinton who is now the race candidate, diminishing black voters and eggheads, her final hopes resting on the thinnest of eggshells.

2:00 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
"Is Michael Richards a superdelegate?"

Posted by Sini

And lots of other good lines in this video.

1:45 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
"Every brother ain't a brother cause of color"

Posted by Sini

A Vibe magazine blogger on Hillary's surrogates.

8:27 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
"The more he opened his mouth, the more I was against her."

Posted by Sini

Woe to those who oppose Obama. This excellent article is mostly about the fate of African Americans who put obstacles in his path (and, by the way, when is Stephanie Tubbs Jones going to get her primary challenge? Was it really necessary for her to stump for Clinton in Indianapolis? Wasn't Ohio enough?). But Bill Clinton is in for a few lumps, too.

10:12 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Nine superdelegates in a day

Posted by Sini

And there are still five and a half hours left.

6:26 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
"They promised and they didn't deliver"

Posted by Sini

Bill Clinton defends his wife against the (accurate) charge that she botched health care in 1994.

6:13 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Ouuuuuuuuuuuuuuch

Posted by Sini

Ted Kennedy takes on the Klandidate:

In an interview to be televised later tonight on Bloomberg TV, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) said Sen. Barack Obama isn't likely to pick Sen. Hillary Clinton as a running mate.

Said Kennedy: "I don't think it's possible."

He said Obama should choose a running mate who "is in tune with his appeal for the
nobler aspirations of the American people."

6:09 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Meet Scott Kleeb

Posted by Sini

As unlikely a candidate for the US Senate as you could expect. He's facing a tough primary fight on May 13th. If you have a few extra bucks to spare for a Senate campaign, send them his way. Video of the candidate, who seems to have sent a number of Daily Kos readers back to adolescence.

5:55 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
JUSIPER Weekend:

Posted by Sini

The album artist has been an endangered species for many years. Now comes speculation that the album may cease to exist altogether.

5:35 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Peggy Noonan is shocked by the Klandidate

Posted by Sini

She may have worked for Philadelphia's president, but the former speechwriter has principles!

In case you didn't get what was behind that exchange, Mrs. Clinton spent this week making it clear. In a jaw-dropping interview in USA Today on Thursday, she said, "I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on." As evidence she cited an Associated Press report that, she said, "found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

White Americans? Hard-working white Americans? "Even Richard Nixon didn't say white," an Obama supporter said, "even with the Southern strategy."

If John McCain said, "I got the white vote, baby!" his candidacy would be over. And rising in highest indignation against him would be the old Democratic Party.

To play the race card as Mrs. Clinton has, to highlight and encourage a sense that we are crudely divided as a nation, to make your argument a brute and cynical "the black guy can't win but the white girl can" is -- well, so vulgar, so cynical, so cold, that once again a Clinton is making us turn off the television in case the children walk by.

"She has unleashed the gates of hell," a longtime party leader told me. "She's saying, 'He's not one of us.'"

She is trying to take Obama down in a new way, but also within a new context. In the past he was just the competitor. She could say, "All's fair." But now he's the competitor who is going to be the nominee of his party. And she is still trying to do him in. And the party is watching.

Again: amazing.

11:58 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Obama plays Taboo against the press corps

Posted by Sini

The Obama team won, but likely not because of the type of clue that only a constitutional historian could give:

Called "the game of unspeakable fun, the Hasbro board game is a regular pastime for journalists traveling on Obama's plane, trying to pass the time during the rare moments when blackberry service is out of range. Players have to get their team to guess a secret word without saying the common words usually used to describe it. (For example, how do you get your team to guess the word 'birthday' without saying 'happy', 'anniversary', 'candles, 'presents', or 'cake'?)

The competitive senator quickly got into the game, cheering on staff members, handing out high fives to his team, and checking the score religiously after each turn. [...]

While Obama was trying to get his staff to guess the word "revolution" he said, "Thomas Jefferson called for this every now and then."

Blank stares from his staff made him rephrase his clues, "Maybe that's a little too obscure" he admitted laughing and opted to describe it as a song by the Beatles, which his communications director quickly guessed correctly.

On a more charming note:

When the tables were turned, and Obama was guessing the word, the clue given by an Obama staffer was, "This is where gay people shop."

Obama staffers yelled out different stores and Obama guessed the popular teenage clothing store Abercrombie and Fitch. The answer was Gap.

11:21 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Does Hillary want the vice presidency?

Posted by Sini

If she does, she can continue to make life very, very difficult for the Democratic Party by refusing to lend public support to Obama until he offers it to her. Her trump card is party unity. Even if he is the legitimate nominee of the party, she can threaten to talk about white rights or whichever Klan talking point her campaign thinks up for her until she gets her due. Obama will have to tread very, very carefully.

11:08 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
How many PPD mayors are supporting Obama in Puerto Rico?

Posted by Sini

No one seems to know, even though some PPD figures claim 24 of the party's 36. But what of the 42 PNP mayors?

In Puerto Rico's elite driven politics, local and statewide voter turnout machines are powerful indeed. These endorsements count.

11:03 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Jimmy Carter slams Bill Clinton

Posted by Sini

And his other successors:

I do not think the President of the United States should be a liar, and believe that the overwhelming majority of U.S. citizens agree with me. For security reasons, the whole truth cannot always be revealed, but it is quite obvious that lies are seldom made to protect our nation. Almost invariably, the political fortunes of the prevaricator are at stake.

During my campaign for the White House in 1976, veracity was a very important issue, because of the known falsehoods having been told during the Vietnam War and the revelations of the Frank Church senatorial investigation that our government had, through the CIA, committed murder and other crimes. I habitually told my small groups of supporters, "If I even make a misleading statement, don't support me."

Although stigmatized as naïve and often having to suffer the consequences, I maintained this commitment to truthfulness during my term in office, and it paid off in many ways. One example was the trust aroused in me by President Anwar Sadat and Prime Minister Menachim Begin, which was instrumental in orchestrating the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. I've observed at other times that the exploding consequences of a small lie can result in political catastrophe, as was shown in President Nixon's effort to conceal the Watergate break-in.

There have been other examples since I left office.

10:49 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
ABC: Obama pulls ahead among superdelegates

Posted by Sini

Closing the Clintons' only door to the nomination:

For the first time this campaign season, Barack Obama has surpassed Hillary Clinton's support among superdelegates, according to the ABC News delegate estimate.

Sen. Obama, D-Ill., picked up two superdelegates this morning giving him a new metric to tout in addition to his current commanding leads in pledged delegates, popular votes, states won, and money raised.

Rep. Donald Payne, D-N.J., switched his endorsement from Clinton to Obama and Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., endorsed Obama. DeFazio was previously uncommitted.

With these endorsements, Obama has the support of 267 superdelegates and Clinton has 265 superdelegates.

Every news organization's superdelegate count is a little different because it is an imperfect science. Since October 2007, the Political Unit has continuously reached out to the nearly 800 superdelegates to determine their candidate preference. We also reach out regularly to the Obama and Clinton campaigns for their superdelegate lists and work to confirm any that they include on their lists.

10:39 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Rasmussen: The race is over

Posted by Sini

Ouch. The polling outfit has decided it's no longer worth tracking the Democratic primaries because we now have a winner.

However, while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

At the moment, Senator Clinton’s team is busily trying to convince Superdelegates and pundits that she is more electable than Barack Obama. For reasons discussed in a separate article, it doesn’t matter. Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November. While we have not firmly decided upon a final day for tracking the Democratic race, it is coming soon.

10:37 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Final Indiana Results

Posted by Sini

A tie:

Hillary Clinton: 637,814 / 50.4%
Barack Obama: 626,642 / 49.6%

Less than 1% separated the two candidates; given the Limbaugh factor, that translates to an Obama victory.

12:24 AM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Clinton could lose millions

Posted by Sini

It's a drop in the bucket, and there's lots of foreign governments for Bill to get another $100 million from. But this is very interesting, from US News, via Political Wire.

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason—at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the millions she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002's McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that's the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modest sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. "If she wants to be repaid, she'd have to move on that between now and the national convention," says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner. "Otherwise, it just becomes another contribution." The campaign, meanwhile, has other debts to consider as well. According to her latest FEC filing, the Hillary Clinton for President campaign committee owes millions to vendors, including more than $4.5 million to Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, the consulting firm of her former chief strategist Mark Penn.

That adds another wrinkle to her decision to stay in the race. Time is running out to pay off friends, allies, and vendors. Plus, by all accounts, Clinton's most ardent supporters are tapped out, either unwilling or unable by law to donate any more. If she's going to continue competing, she has to ask herself how many more millions she's willing to spend in a quest many describe as increasingly quixotic. In short, how much does she care about the money? Politics guru Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia figures not much; after all, the Clintons earned $109 million since leaving the White House. "It's like Michael Bloomberg spending a billion. Would he miss it? Is she going to miss $10 million? There's only so much you can spend yourself anyway."

Still, $10 million is no small amount of coin, even for high rollers. That's led many in political circles to speculate that the money issue has Clinton carefully considering her options. Fundraising is tough; fundraising for a perceived loser is even tougher. How will the candidate pay off her debt? The best shot, paradoxically, is seeking the help of her chief rival. It's more than probable that she and Obama could work out a deal: She gets out of the race, saving him the millions he would spend in the remaining primaries, and he would help put her campaign back in the black. That could be accomplished by headlining fundraisers for her, and leaning on his donors to cut her a check. "It would be a matter of mending fences," says Scott Thomas, another former FEC chairman. "If his campaign fundraisers are able to help her retire her debt, she's in a much more comfortable position and would be far better disposed (to help him in the general election)." Adds Toner: "That's very common, particularly when you're trying to join ranks to help your defeated colleagues."

Still, $10 million is no small amount of coin, even for high rollers. That's led many in political circles to speculate that the money issue has Clinton carefully considering her options. Fundraising is tough; fundraising for a perceived loser is even tougher. How will the candidate pay off her debt? The best shot, paradoxically, is seeking the help of her chief rival. It's more than probable that she and Obama could work out a deal: She gets out of the race, saving him the millions he would spend in the remaining primaries, and he would help put her campaign back in the black. That could be accomplished by headlining fundraisers for her, and leaning on his donors to cut her a check. "It would be a matter of mending fences," says Scott Thomas, another former FEC chairman. "If his campaign fundraisers are able to help her retire her debt, she's in a much more comfortable position and would be far better disposed (to help him in the general election)." Adds Toner: "That's very common, particularly when you're trying to join ranks to help your defeated colleagues."

11:34 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Some thoughts on Obama's vice-presidential choices

Posted by Sini

We will return to this topic many times, no doubt, in the coming months. So this is an early take.

There are four metrics:

1. States brought to the table. There are few truly competitive states left, and even within those states, there are few local figures who can really help the top of the ticket. John Edwards proved useless in North Carolina because the state wasn't competitive to begin with for Kerry in 2004. The last Democratic VP nominee who really brought his state to the table was Al Gore, and before that, arguably, Mondale in 1976.

2. Strengthening the brand. Clinton's solution in 1992 and Gore's in 2000. Al Gore reinforced the Southernness of the 1992 ticket as well as its youthfulness and dynamism. Gore also brought right wing defense and left wing environmental credentials, along with Washington heft. Lieberman in 2000 brought alleged moral rectitude to the ticket and some strength in Florida.

3. Unifying the party. Here again Mondale was a plus in 1976, by bringing liberal northern values to complement Carter's center-rightism.

4. Demographics

One can think of a few contenders on a regional dimension.

1. Obama's greatest strength is the Midwest. For whatever reason, he is strong against McCain in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and, obviously, his home state of Illinois. Sticking to his own region would only cement that vote, meaning he can bring the fight to more Republican-leaning swing states. And it would help in five key states. Two are swing states: Missouri and Ohio went Democratic in 1992 and 1996 and Republican in 2000 and 2004. The other hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but very well might this year: Indiana. And it would help lock down two Democratic states that McCain has reason to target: Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Such a VP choice would ideally not be identified with big city Midwestern politics, since Obama already holds that credential. Rather, anything representing rural or Catholic voters would be a plus. Some possibilities: Obama backers Jim Doyle of Wisconsin, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Lee Hamilton of Indiana. Former Iowa governor and failed Clinton caucus stocking horse Vilsack would also bring two wings of the party together, as would the less appealing governors Strickland and Rendell. Other senators: Brown, Stabenow, Feingold, Levin.

2. Again on a regional dimension, anyone who could help bring Florida to the mix would be a plus, and anyone who could help with the Southwest would be a plus, even though Obama seems reasonably strong in the latter region.

3. If by September Obama is looking exceptionally strong, he could, of course, make a bold regional move by putting up a candidate who could put Virginia and North Carolina in play. Gov. Kaine, Sen. Webb, Gov. Easley or former Gov. Hunt are possibilities here. John Edwards didn't carry North Carolina in 2004, but he might do better in 2008.

In short, it seems to me the region to target for Obama is the Midwest, because there is no route to victory for McCain if he loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania. There is even less of a route if he loses Indiana and Missouri as well. And he is well positioned in Colorado and Nevada either way.

Strengthening the brand: Obama could also use a nominee with

1. loads of Washington experience. However, such a nominee would have to also be someone who is not seen as corrupted by too many years in the city, a balance hard to achieve unless he or she has been away from the city for sometime or is accepted as truly upright. Both Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt have been away from Washington for some time now and could be real point people on Capitol Hill.

2. strong economic credentials. This is a hard type of person to find, but an egghead economist candidate with the right credentials could help the ticket with downscale voters across the board. Early Obama backer Paul Volcker is a possibility. Under the right circumstances, such a nominee could even provide some types of demographic appeal: Laura D'Andrea Tyson, in addition to being a woman is also a former Clinton appointee (and harassee). New York mayor Michael Bloomberg would bring instant credibility in a country that worships economic success. The drawbacks with this kind of candidate would be the lack of political experience and potential corporate conflicts of interest.

3. strong defense and/or foreign policy credentials. McCain's only perceived policy strength, granted, for no rational reason, is on security. A general or known defense policymaker would greatly enhance Obama's standing among security voters. The danger here is that that there are few such people with political experience, and among those who have it, few are identifiable progressives. Wesley Clark has some potential in this respect; by having made some strong progressive stands in his 2004 race for President, he will cause much less unease among leftwingers. Like Tyson, he could bring Clinton backers in more easily. Jim Webb is a possibility as well. Sam Nunn, on the other hand, is not. Joe Biden is approved of by some. General Zinni, meanwhile, is a bit of a cypher. Lee Hamilton went to bat for Obama in the Indiana primary. And Colin Powell or Al Gore, of course, would provide instant credibility on a number of fronts.

Obama may have to choose a VP nominee who unifies the party. This need not be unpalatable, so long as they weren't complicit in the Clinton race strategy or destructive in some other way. And there are plenty of choices here: Missouri's Dick Gephardt or Ohio's Ted Strickland, for example.

Finally, there's the demographic issue. Had Clinton been the nominee, she would have wanted a white male. Obama, too, might have as well. But the primary has had its impact, and some may feel Obama would do well choose a white woman or a Hispanic. Missouri Senator and early Obama backer (and Catholic!) Claire McCaskill is a possibility. Both she and Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius strengthen Obama's credentials among rural Midwesterners and may bring Missouri to the table. Indeed, Claire McCaskill is pretty much the only person who can claim to have brought a crucial state to the Obama table: his victory in Missouri on Super Tuesday was arguably his most significant that night.

Bill Richardson, of course, is an obvious choice on three fronts as a Hispanic Southwestern governor with security credentials. Obama has had trouble with older voters, and it may be that picking an older VP might help; on the other hand, he could go the Gore '92 route and reinforce youth and dynamism. I suspect, however, that he won't.

Finally, of course, there is Hillary Clinton herself, who potentially fits all four categories (one could argue she might help in PA, OH, and FL--she can't bring any other states into the mix with Obama heading the ticket), but whose campaign and perceived dishonesty may prove a liability for a campaign that has been branded as both clean, honest and outside the Beltway.

A handful of candidates succeed on more than one category; and these will comprise the JUSIPER shortlist, coming soon to a blog near you.

5:57 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Rare heterosexual GOP scandal!

Posted by Sini

Unlike David Vitter, Vito Fossella didn't even wear diapers. And he even visited his three year old love child, albeit with a blood alcohol level over twice the legal limit. You'd think they'd be electing him House minority leader for proving his virility. But unlike diaper-clad whoremonger Louisiana senator David Vitter, Fossella resides in a swing district. So the GOP is ready to get rid of him.

More details from the Washington Post:

Their relationship is problematic politically for Fossella, not just because of the infidelity factor, but because he and Fay traveled abroad together at taxpayers' expense when Fay was working as a military liaison to the House arranging and traveling on congressional delegations trips abroad.

The New York Daily News reports that Fay and Fossella disappeared for hours at a time during a CODEL to Europe in 2003 led by then-House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.).

Even though GOP officials privately say Fossella has little choice but to step aside for the good of the party, the congressman did not say in his statement today whether he would seek reelection. "Making any political decisions right now are furthest from my mind," he said.

Republican officials already are quietly eyeing other potential GOP candidates to run in Fossella's 13th congressional district in New York.

Observers agree, it would be tough for Fossella to hang on given his troubles. "This is isn't just infidelity, it's a multiple crisis syndrome," says crisis communications consultant Jim McCarthy, president of CounterPoint Strategies. "He's facing three or four accusations at once. Infidelity alone could be managed. A DUI alone could be managed. But if you're careening over the median strip on your way to see your lover and traveling with her on the taxpayer's dime, that's tough."

UPDATE: Here comes the catalog of voting hypocrisy.

Rep. Fossella voted for the Federal Marriage Amendment in both 2004 and 2006. It's always so important to protect marriage from the horrid threats posed by The Gay, which are much, much scarier than the threats posed by drunken husbands who have entire second families.

He also voted to ban gay adoptions in DC. And that makes sense: the damage caused to a child by being adopted by two loving people of the same gender vastly exceeds the damage caused to a three year old by having a father who can only drop by now and again, when his real family isn't paying attention, or to his three other children by growing up in a home where there are secrets no one can talk about.

Oh: Fossella also voted for the Marriage Protection Act, which would have barred any court from hearing questions about the interpretation or constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act.

Because marriages need protecting, even by people who can't be bothered to protect their own.

5:51 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)

 
Washington Blade unendorses Hillary

Posted by Sini

And calls on LGBT Hillary supporters to move on and support Obama.

The time has come for Clinton to adopt a gracious and conciliatory tone, end her campaign and endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president. [...]

As someone who endorsed Clinton early in the campaign (well before the mainstream media went ga-ga over Obama after his Iowa victory), I saw her as the party’s best chance to beat the GOP nominee and the candidate with the most relevant international experience to tackle the myriad crises inflicted on us by George Bush.

Unfortunately, all the talk of experience and competence was belied by a campaign rife with incompetence. From Bill Clinton’s ruinous (and arguably racist) campaign swing through South Carolina, to an obvious failure to craft a strategy past Super Tuesday, her campaign staff made so many miscalculations that Hillary went from a coronation to a shocking defeat.

In sharp contrast to Clinton’s transparent, over-the-top pandering (downing shots with the locals and touting a phony love of guns), Obama has managed to stay above the fray, even during the darkest moments of the Wright saga. He could have gone sharply negative in the run-up to North Carolina and Indiana, as some advised him to do. Instead, he stuck to his own metaphorical guns and rose above the faux controversies and petty attacks. Even in victory Tuesday night, Obama praised Clinton and promised that his supporters would back her if she emerged as the party nominee.

But she didn’t emerge victorious and the time has come for her supporters, gay and straight, to embrace Obama’s campaign for the White House. The stakes are too high to allow primary race disappointments to demoralize Democratic voters. And the stakes for gay voters are higher. [...]

But with the Supreme Court in the balance, no gay voter should pull the lever for McCain in November. Sammon’s predecessor, Patrick Guerriero, took a principled stand — for which he was unfairly criticized by some gay Republicans — and declined to endorse President Bush in 2004. Sammon should follow that example and Log Cabin should resist going to bat for someone who has publicly pledged to appoint justices hostile to gay rights advances.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton’s gay supporters should take a day to mourn her defeat and then join Obama’s cause. She’s resilient and will bounce back, probably as Senate majority leader, a job much more in line with her skills than that of president.

And Obama should continue to reach out to Hillary’s disaffected supporters and work to unite the party. It’s time for Hillary’s gay donors and volunteers to look past short-term disappointments and consider the long-term impact of a McCain administration. It’s a scary thought that renders all other considerations moot.

4:42 PM | Post or Read Comments (0)